Looking forward to, looking forward to, September is here. But September is here, and the peak season that cloth bosses expected has not come as promised. How is this September different from Septembers in past years? What makes the current market so urgent?
Raw material prices
Speaking of the market prices this year and previous years The gap, the difference in raw material prices must be a very important point.
For most traditional manufacturing industries, the price of raw materials represents the bulk of the cost. In particular, the filament weaving industry, which has low profits, is extremely sensitive to changes in raw material prices.
In the past, raw material prices would rise for a period of time in the second half of the year, and it is not uncommon for prices to rise by as much as 1,000 yuan a month. However, in general, the rise in raw material prices in previous years was caused by a variety of factors: the increase in polyester yarn caused by the rise in international oil prices, and the increase in polyester yarn caused by the hot downstream market, which led to strong production and sales of polyester yarn in short supply. But generally speaking, polyester yarn prices generally rise in October or November, and they usually start to rise after the downstream market picks up.
But this year the situation is different. July and August are the traditional off-season for the textile market. Downstream weaving companies generally stock up on goods to prepare for the second half of the year. During this period, the number of orders is often small. However, this year’s polyester price increase was concentrated in July and August. Of course, this is mainly due to the rise in upstream PX and PTA. However, in September, when the traditional market was about to enter the peak season, the prices of PX and PTA began to drop. Although polyester filament remained at a high level, it also showed signs of falling.
Seeing that the peak season is coming, the cloth woven from high-priced silk is obviously not competitive in the market. It can be said that you will lose as much as you buy. At this time, weaving companies naturally did not dare to buy large quantities of silk. Everyone was waiting and watching. The price of cloth could not be lowered for a while, so the order quantity was reduced.
Number of looms
In the past two years, due to the Machine rectification, the number of water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is decreasing year by year. Under the combined effect of the increasing demand market and reduced production capacity, conventional products have had a “good life” for more than two years.
This year, the rectification of looms continues. The number of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is still decreasing, but the number of looms in peripheral areas has begun to increase. In the first half of this year, everyone was wondering when peripheral production capacity would be ramped up. During the visit in the first half of the year, Boss Bu mostly predicted July and August. Come September, peripheral production capacity has really arrived. The most important thing about the rise of peripheral production capacity is that it has changed supply and demand. The “good days” of the past two years were because conventional products were in short supply and supply increased. Such “good days” will naturally come to an end.
According to the author’s understanding, because there are no constraints on loom indicators, the production scale of peripheral production capacity is generally relatively large and the production capacity is strong. However, due to various reasons such as raw material prices, worker proficiency, and supporting facilities, peripheral production capacity has not been fully released. It is expected that the production capacity of conventional products will continue to increase in the next year.
Dyeing factory
Dyeing fee is the bulk of fabric cost , the delivery time of the dyeing factory also reflects the popularity of the entire fabric market to a certain extent.
Take polyester taffeta as an example. “Ragged cloth” polyester taffeta is the easiest product to dye and has relatively low requirements. It is shipped in about one week after normal dyeing. The shipping cycle last September reached more than 20 days!
However, one-third of September this year has passed, and the overall price of dyeing fees has remained stable, while the price exceeding cost has increased. Nowadays, the delivery time of dyeing factories is relatively fast, and the goods can generally be shipped within a week after proofing.
In terms of dyeing costs, due to environmental issues, costs have been rising, so the dyeing fees have also been rising. Compared with the same period last year, the dyeing fees have increased by nearly 15%, but because they are in batches The prices rose slowly, and the reaction of fabric manufacturers was not as great as that of raw materials.
Overall, in terms of supply and demand, raw materials and environmental protection Under the combined influence of policies and other factors, the market in September this year was slightly duller than in previous years, and the order situation did not improve much compared to the previous two months. Boss Bu’s predictions for the future are generally pessimistic, but there are many factors that will affect the market in the later period, and it is difficult to judge what the market will be like. Therefore, Boss Bu should wait for the arrival of the peak season with a positive and optimistic attitude. </p
