PTA futures continued to fall, and the spot price began to dive from a high level. How much can it fall this time?
After September 4, the PTA futures market seems to have reached an inflection point. The upward momentum that lasted for more than a month was stopped. After a few days of shock, PTA began to dive from its high level.
Take PTA’s main futures 1901 as an example. On August 30, the 01 contract reached a high of 8032, setting a new high in the past five years. By September 18 At the close of the day, the contract reached 7214 points, a total drop of 818 points, or 10.2%.
In August, the overall growth rate of PTA was 26.68%, and the 1809 contract rose as high as 42.98%. Now it has fallen by more than 10% in more than half a month, and there is a high probability that it will continue to be bearish in the future.
Compared with PTA futures, the spot price is not far behind. In August, the spot price of PTA surged by about 2,400 yuan from around 6,600 yuan/ton at the end of July to around 9,000 yuan/ton in late July.
Last week, when PTA futures just started to fall, PTA spot prices were still stable at highs of 9200 and 9300. This week, PTA spot prices also began to plummet.
On the 17th, Hengyi Petrochemical PTA’s internal spot quotation dropped by 200 yuan from the previous price, with a quotation of 9,000 yuan/ton.
On the 18th, the spot price of Yisheng Petrochemical PTA continued to drop by 400 yuan, reaching 8,600 yuan.
PTA spot trading is mainly affected by the sluggish production and sales of polyester factories. According to data observations from China Silk City Network, after entering September, the operating load of polyester dropped by 10% compared with August. %, reaching 86%, of which direct-spun polyester filament fell by 4%, and the texturing operating rate dropped by 20%.
Even though polyester factories have reduced production, polyester production and sales have remained at a low level of about 50%. Only stocks keep rising.
Under the influence of the decline in PTA, the price of polyester filament has also begun to fall this week. Since the weekend, the price focus of the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has generally fallen, and the quotations of mainstream companies in various places have basically The price is reduced by 400-500 yuan, and the highest drop of POY is 500-600 yuan.
International oil prices: fluctuating at high levels and remaining high
The recent news about rising oil prices is very popular. In the early morning of the 17th, the price of refined oil products across the country was raised again, to 145 yuan/ton for gasoline and 145 yuan/ton for diesel.
When people across the country are “happy to welcome the rise in oil prices”, as textile people, we must also pay attention to the international Crude oil prices. Nowadays, the price of domestic refined oil products is linked to the international crude oil price. Recently, long and short factors such as the landfall of tropical storms, downstream concerns about trade risks, a decline in Iran’s monthly average exports, and the two major monthly reports of OPEC and EIA have lowered future demand growth, have alternately affected the market, resulting in European and American crude oil fluctuated at high levels. Therefore, oil prices, which are the most upstream of the polyester industry chain, have actually been at a high level in recent times and have not fallen.
PX: It turns out that it is the real boss
The decline relative to PTA , the price of PX remains high. On September 18, the external quotation of PX was US$1,310. On August 30, PX’s external quotation was at $1,318. It can be seen that while PTA continues to decline, PX has been “sitting firmly on the Diaoyutai”.
The past two months have had a huge impact on the outlook of textile people. At the beginning, when polyester prices rose, everyone thought that the chemical fiber factory was the boss. The “Joint Production Suspension Initiative” issued on August 6 also targeted the leading chemical fiber manufacturers; when PTA prices remained high, chemical fiber companies began to overhaul After reducing production, everyone discovered that the big boss was the one who produced PTA. Nowadays, while PTA is on the rise, the price of PX remains high. Unexpectedly, the real power is PX.
PTA: Is the spot price of 8,000 the short-term end point?
As mentioned above, the spot price of PTA rose from 6,600 points to 9,000 points in one month in August. Where will it fall this time? ?
Based on the current cost of PX, the cost of PTA alone is more than 7,200 yuan/ton, and the breakeven processing fee is 700 yuan/ton. Plus some other expenses, the total cost It’s nearly 8,000 yuan/ton.
When the PTA spot price was still at 6,600 points, the external price of PX was only US$1,051, a difference from the current price of more than US$250.
Therefore, if the price of PX does not go down, the spot price of around 8,000 yuan/ton may be the end of the short-term decline. It is not realistic to return to the low price in the past.��
Weaving boss: Don’t be afraid of falling, just be afraid Keep falling
In mid-August, the author asked several weaving bosses about their feelings about the rise in raw materials. At that time, some weaving bosses said that whether raw materials were rising or falling was not a good thing for them. They would not dare to buy if the raw materials went up, and they would not dare to buy if they fell. Only stable raw material prices are the best.
It can be seen from the recent production and sales of polyester raw materials that at this stage, based on the production reduction of polyester manufacturers, the production and sales of polyester have also been hovering at a low level of about 50%. , even if the polyester factory has promotional measures, it will be useless. After all, the price of polyester yarn has been falling, and you will lose as much as you buy now. Naturally, no one will buy it if they can.
It is foreseeable that if the price of raw materials cannot reach the bottom at once, it will be difficult for weaving companies to calculate the true cost of cloth on the market, and naturally it will be difficult to price cloth. , the entire market naturally becomes less prosperous.
Editor’s note: After speculation funds began to withdraw from the futures market, PTA began a downward channel. However, the high price of PX is still an insurmountable hurdle in the decline of PTA. The cost of PTA is there. If the price of PX does not relax, it would be impossible for PTA to fall back to its original low level. </p
