After more than half a month of continuous decline, on October 29, PTA futures finally ushered in a rebound. As of the close on October 29, the closing price of PTA’s main futures 1901 was 6938 points, an increase of 152 points or 2.24% from the previous trading day.
In addition to the main 1901, other PTA futures contracts also rose to varying degrees on October 29.
At the end of the profit, PTA began to rebound
Except for the three holidays after the holiday The sky is rising, and the polyester environment in October was completely in a state of decline. Why did PTA start to rebound against the trend at the end of the month?
International oil prices rebounded
Affected by the Khashoggi case, Saudi Arabia announced an increase in crude oil production, and international oil prices fell sharply, with a daily drop of one degree More than 4%. By the end of last week, international oil prices began to rebound.
As of the close of trading on October 25, the price of light crude oil futures for delivery in 23 months on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by US$0.51 to close at US$67.33 per barrel, an increase of 0.76%. London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose $0.72 to close at $76.89 a barrel, an increase of 0.95%.
There is a certain linkage effect between PTA futures and international oil prices. International oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, giving PTA futures a reason to rise.
PTA production and sales maintain balance
Although the PTA equipment is undergoing centralized maintenance in October It’s almost over, but the level of PTA maintenance in November is no less impressive. The current operating rate of the PTA industry is around 72%, which is not high overall.
On the other hand, the current operating load of the entire polyester industry remains at around 87%. If PTA and polyester maintain roughly their current operating rates, PTA’s production and sales will be roughly balanced, and there will be no negative factors such as oversupply.
PTA profits fell below the bottom
In October, the price of PX and the price of PTA can be said to have fallen simultaneously. The spot price of PTA fell by more than 1,000 yuan. The drop also exceeded $100. But overall, PTA still falls faster than PX. This results in that although costs and sales prices are falling together, PTA’s profits are much lower than before.
Especially in recent times, the spot price of PTA has been declining more and more, while the decline of PX has slowed down. As can be seen from the table below, from October 19th to October 25th, the spot price of PTA fell by 260 yuan per ton, but the cost of PX only fell by 64 yuan per ton when converted into RMB. Such a decline gap made PTA Profits hit rock bottom.
It can be seen that there are not many positive factors for the rebound of PTA futures this time. It is more because PTA profits have fallen below the bottom and it is difficult to continue. Fell down.
Polyester prices continue to fall, and the weaving market is difficult to pick up
PTA futures have ushered in a long-awaited rebound. Can it drive a recovery in the downstream weaving market? The conclusion seems somewhat pessimistic.
Polyester prices are still falling
This year, the entire market has fully seen the linkage effect of PTA and polyester filament. As long as PTA rises, the price of polyester filament will react on the same day. In exaggerated cases, the price of polyester filament will be adjusted twice a day.
But this time PTA futures rebounded, the decline of polyester filament has not stopped. In the two days over the weekend, the price of polyester filament fell by 200-300 yuan/ton. On October 29, polyester filament continued to fall. Even if the price of polyester filament from some manufacturers did not drop, there would be certain preferential measures.
So overall, even if PTA futures rebound briefly, polyester factories are not very willing to raise prices, and what should fall will still fall.
Production and sales are still low
Throughout October, except for replenishment a few days after the National Day, the production and sales of the polyester industry have been relatively low, poor. When it is good, it is around 50%, and when it is good, it is around 80%. In short, it does not exceed 100, and inventory has been accumulating.
Such a market situation has led to the current polyester factories being very concerned about the opinions of the downstream. If the downstream wants to fall, then Come on, as long as the goods can be sold, everything is not a big problem. Anyway, the current cash flow of the polyester factory is still around 500-800 yuan. Although the profit is not high, at least it is still profitable. The most important thing is to prevent inventory from accumulating.
Downstreams are still complaining
The biggest headache for cloth bosses now is the high raw material prices. Although the drop in raw material prices will bring about the problem of inventory cloth, but If the raw materials are low, the profit margin will become larger.�It cannot be changed. If you want to move from high prices to low prices, there will always be a period of falling prices, and cloth bosses can accept it.
But the price dropped to half, and suddenly there was news that the raw materials had dropped to the bottom and were about to rebound. The cloth boss took a look and realized that the price of raw materials is still so high. We can’t make any money in the first place. But you tell me that this is the bottom? So what does it mean that the price of raw materials was more than 2,000 yuan lower than now at this time last year?
The author believes that although PTA futures have rebounded, the market from polyester to downstream weaving has still not picked up. The overall market cannot support the continued rise of PTA. </p
