Since this week, PTA futures have reversed their decline. On November 12, PTA futures exceeded 6,500 points. On November 13, PTA futures rose again. As of 15:00, the closing price of the PTA futures 1901 contract was 6546 points, an increase of 30 points or 0.46% from the previous trading day.
Although PTA futures have begun to rise slightly recently, the author believes that in the long run, the overall PTA market Still not optimistic.
U.S. oil fell below $60, and PX prices fell rapidly
When it comes to the price of a product, first of all, we have to talk about its cost. As a basic raw material, international crude oil has begun a plunge in the past month. On Monday, U.S. crude oil fell below $60, setting a record of “11 consecutive black days”.
As of the close on November 12, the price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by US$0.26 to close at US$59.93 per barrel, a decrease of 0.43%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in January 2019 fell by US$0.06 to close at US$70.12 per barrel, a decrease of 0.09%.
Driven by crude oil, the price of PTA raw material PX has also begun to fall rapidly recently, and the PX external market ( South Korea) quotation fell from US$1,187/ton on November 1 to US$1,118/ton on November 12, a drop of US$69/ton.
(Trump hopes crude oil prices will continue to drop)
But raw materials It is not completely negative. With crude oil prices plummeting, OPEC members including Saudi Arabia have begun planning to reduce production. Saudi Arabia plans to reduce production by 500,000 barrels in December. Once the production reduction plan is implemented, raw material prices may rebound in the future. .
Polyester production restrictions have reversed the decline, and the demand for PTA has weakened again
Due to the rapid decline in polyester filament prices, the profits of polyester factories have been greatly compressed. Since last weekend, polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have issued multiple production reduction orders. Many large manufacturers have expanded the scale of production reductions. The current known production reduction range has reached 2,500 tons/day, and more chemical fiber companies are considering subsequent production reduction plans. .
Based on the substantial reduction in production of polyester factories, on November 12, the production and sales of polyester factories rebounded to Above 100, the price of polyester filament has finally begun to rise for a long time. Although the increase is not large, only 50-100 yuan/ton, this can be regarded as a rare rebound of polyester filament after the price collapse of the polyester industry chain.
The production reduction plan has given a strong boost to the polyester market, but the fundamental situation of the cold downstream weaving market has not been reversed. Even if the production and sales on the 12th were reversed, there are still things that need to be considered. The supply has also decreased, and the absolute demand for polyester filament has not increased much. In addition, the author recently interviewed some bosses of weaving companies. They do not think that the current raw material prices are very low. They are only slightly lower than the falsely high prices a few months ago, but overall they are still considered high. Once the price of polyester yarn rises again, the downstream weaving market is likely to breed resistance, which in turn will affect the sales of polyester filament.
On the other hand, even though the production and sales of polyester have rebounded due to intensified production cuts, the sluggish production and sales in the early stage have led to a large accumulation of polyester stocks. In order to reduce the inventory, polyester companies have , we must pay more attention to downstream ideas. Affected by the overall textile market, the destocking of polyester will also become slower.
PTA maintains maintenance efforts
In September and October, PTA’s equipment has undergone large-scale maintenance. Currently, a large number of equipment have been overhauled. However, because PTA prices have fallen sharply in the past two months and processing fees have fallen again and again, PTA manufacturers are not very motivated to start production.
Coupled with the fact that polyester manufacturers have recently begun to reduce production on a large scale, the downstream demand for PTA has further reduced, so more PTA manufacturers have begun additional maintenance. Yisheng’s 2.25 million ton unit will begin long-term maintenance, and Yadong Petrochemical’s 750,000 ton unit will begin long-term maintenance from November 13. It is not ruled out that PTA manufacturers will further increase their maintenance efforts in the future.
Editor’s note: For PTA, there are both negative and positive factors in the future, but in the final analysis, downstream Demand is the most fundamental issue. Only when the conditions in the downstream weaving market really improve can the changes in upstream raw materials be fully digested, and the entire market can truly prosper. </p
