Looking back since October, there have been very few positive macro news, and crude oil has not improved yet. The polyester market is mainly weak and lacks upward momentum. It is reasonable for polyester chips to follow the trend. Polyester chips have received a heavy blow. Its price center has plummeted, falling to around 7,950 yuan/ton. Compared with the price in early October, it has dropped significantly by nearly 1,675 yuan/ton, a drop of 17.22%.
Since October, international crude oil has been in a weak position, and the domestic commodity market has also fallen. PTA and MEG prices fell, the trading atmosphere in the slice market dropped, and the focus of negotiations also dropped. After late October, international oil prices remained weak, the PTA spot market was also weak, polyester manufacturers were slow to destock, and the chip market continued its weak decline, with the daily decline expanding to 75-125 yuan/ton. By November, upstream raw materials were still weak, and the trading atmosphere in the slice market was sluggish, causing slice prices to plummet, falling to the 8,000 yuan/ton mark.
In recent times, polyester filament, polyester bottle flakes, etc. have fallen into losses to varying degrees due to the sharp drop in prices. Polyester chips have also turned from good profits to losses, and the losses are relatively serious. As of now, the cash flow of polyester chips is around -350, and it may be difficult to get out of this predicament for a while.
Cost support is loose
There is support on the short-term cost side of PTA, but with the recent sharp decline in crude oil and the market being bearish on long-term PX profits, there is a risk that the cost side will loosen in the long term, so PTA may maintain a weak trend in November. The cost end of ethylene glycol, crude oil, ethylene or methanol, has all fallen sharply recently, and port inventories are still high. There is also a lot of bad news such as the commissioning of new domestic coal-based MEG equipment. Therefore, the trend of ethylene glycol in November may be Also remains weak. Therefore, from the perspective of the two major raw materials, the cost-end support for chip prices is weak, so chip prices may follow the price of PTA and ethylene glycol in the later period.
Polyester chip load remains at a high level
Since the first half of this year, polyester chip load has remained at 8- 90% is on the high side. It is reported that a 250,000-ton polymer spinning filament device in Zhejiang Shuangtu that was originally suspended for inspection on September 11 has restarted, and another 250,000-ton device in the factory has also restarted discharging materials on October 12; Xiaoshan Lianda A 180,000-ton polymerization spinning unit that was originally shut down for maintenance on September 20 has restarted; a 100,000-ton polymerization unit at Luyu that was originally shut down for maintenance on September 15 has restarted after warming up. Several major slicing factories have recently restarted to varying degrees, so the current slicing load is high. However, downstream chip spinning manufacturers mostly purchase on demand and the demand is average, so some factories have high inventories. Many manufacturers have strong intention to sell goods, so the price of slices is weak.
Because polyester chips, as an intermediate product, must be hampered by many factors, and currently downstream slices I’m afraid that spinning was a bit “returning” a year ago. In principle, slicing can only rely on the cost of upstream raw materials, but the upstream raw materials are relatively weak. As for itself, unless it unites to limit production and protect prices, it may still be difficult to get through this bottom line! </p
