On December 10, in the domestic futures market, ethylene glycol futures of Dalian Commodity Exchange were listed today.
The first batch of listed trading contracts are EG1906, EG1907, EG1908, EG1909, EG1910, and EG1911, and the benchmark prices are all 6,000 yuan/ton.
As one of the main raw materials for polyester filament, the listing of ethylene glycol futures has also attracted the attention of the majority of textile people. focus on. How did ethylene glycol futures perform on the day they were listed?
The author opened a web search, and then saw the news that ethylene glycol futures opened down 7%. It fell sharply at the opening, which can be said to be a bad start.
At the close of trading, the decline in ethylene glycol futures also remained above 5%, with 1911 falling the most. The contract fell by 7.13%.
What is the recent trend of ethylene glycol?
According to the price data monitoring of China Silk City Network, in the past half month, the spot price of ethylene glycol has experienced a process of first rising and then falling, from November 26 to 12 Within a week of March 3, the price of ethylene glycol rose from 5,660 yuan/ton to 6,215 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.8%. After December 3, ethylene glycol experienced a stable market for several days, but towards the weekend, the price of ethylene glycol began to fall sharply.
From rising limit to falling limit, what has ethylene glycol experienced?
We can see from the price chart that November 30 can be said to be a watershed for ethylene glycol prices. Before this, although the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated, the overall price remained stable. After that, the price of ethylene glycol began a rapid rise.
November 30 happened to be the day when the G20 Argentina Summit was held. During the summit, China and the United States reached an agreement to ease the trade war. There were also reports from Russia, Saudi Arabia and other countries. There are rumors of production cuts.
Affected by this, the long-suppressed polyester industry chain has risen in response, with ethylene glycol as As a link in the polyester industry chain, it is not surprising that prices are rising.
The decline in ethylene glycol prices basically follows the trend of the polyester industry chain. During the day on December 5, PTA rose sharply by 5%, and polyester filament also rose to varying degrees. Coupled with the news of production cuts in Canada and other positive factors, as soon as the market opened in the evening, international oil prices It rose all the way, reaching 3% at one point. However, as Trump tweeted that he would suppress oil prices, international oil prices fell in response, and even fell at the end of the day. Affected by this, the entire polyester industry chain has gradually begun a process of rising and falling.
But even if it falls back, why do PTA and polyester filament only fall slightly, while ethylene glycol falls directly from Has the rising limit turned into a falling limit? Then we have to talk about the fundamentals of ethylene glycol.
From a supply perspective, due to weather reasons, the arrival of some cargoes in East China has been delayed until next week. In addition, the recent shipment volume in the mainstream reservoir areas has been average, and the inventory at East China terminals is likely to be maintained. At a high level, domestic production and imports are stable and relatively strong, and the supply of ethylene glycol is relatively abundant.
From a demand perspective, although China and the United States have reached an easing agreement on trade, the New Year is approaching, so This will not bring significant improvement in downstream weaving demand in a short period of time. In addition, the production and sales of polyester factories fell quickly after peaking at 400% on December 3. Last Friday (December 7), production and sales fell below 100% again, reaching around 70%. Therefore, the start of operation of polyester factories The rate will continue to be at a low level, and the demand for ethylene glycol will not improve well in a short period of time.
Under the combined effect of sufficient supply and weak demand, the port inventory of ethylene glycol has remained high recently.
What is the trend of ethylene glycol in the future?
We can see from the previous price changes that the price of ethylene glycol basically follows the entire polyester industry chain.
PTA, as of the close of trading on December 10, PTA’s main 1905 contract closed at 6134 points, which was higher thanIt fell 78 points or 1.26% on the previous trading day.
In terms of polyester filament, the price of polyester filament increased slightly on December 10, with an increase of 50-100. Yuan / ton.
It can be seen that the polyester industry chain this week has not improved significantly compared with last weekend, and the fundamentals have basically remained stable, so ethylene glycol may continue to decline in the future; But on the other hand, considering the strong financial attributes of ethylene glycol, if there is good news from the macro news and international oil prices, the possibility of ethylene glycol stopping the decline and rebounding cannot be ruled out. </p
