The summer is hot and the entire textile market is tepid. The two are in sharp contrast. There was a lot of speculation in the polyester market last week, and the entire industry chain seemed to be stimulated. There is a saying in the textile market, that is, five will be poor, six will be great, and seven will turn around. After experiencing a sluggish May, we unknowingly bottomed out in June. When will the market rebound? This is the biggest concern for many people in the industry.
Currently, raw material prices are fluctuating within a range, and leading upstream companies still have long intentions in the market. , although there has been no good news about equipment, profits, load and other fundamentals, the market has not yet evolved into the kind of trembling panic. Instead, there is a state of stalemate and mutual game between upstream and downstream.
The “weekend market” is difficult to maintain, and polyester filament cannot rise!
Recently, we have been referring to the polyester filament market as the “weekend market”, because these rebounds in the market have always resulted in a concentrated outbreak of production and sales on weekends. , after experiencing the continuous increase in production and sales, the inventory of polyester filament manufacturers has dropped significantly.
According to statistics, as of the 26th, the overall inventory of the polyester market was 11-20 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory was concentrated at 4-8 days, and FDY inventory was 10-10 days. Around 15 days, while DTY inventory is around 18-23 days.
The raw material market has shown a certain rebound, except for the rise in crude oil and the expected easing of the trade war. Emotional influences and improved enthusiasm for stocking in the downstream market are also the main reasons.
As the saying goes, success depends on failure. The rebound height of the raw material market depends largely on the demand of the end market. Last weekend (June 22 and 23), the average production and sales were bleak compared to the weekends of the previous two weeks. Manufacturers’ production and sales ranged from 20% to 80%, and the market entered a calm period again. From a price perspective, continued low production and sales have also suppressed the price increase of polyester filament. Entering this week, the momentum of speculation in raw material factories began to fade, and market prices returned to calm.
“The market was hot last week, mainly driven by the mentality of many weaving factories to buy at low prices. There is still great uncertainty in the market, at least in my opinion, the downstream trend There has not been a complete rebound yet,” said an FDY trader in Xiaoshao area. This also explains why every time the price of polyester filament increases by 200-300 yuan/ton, it will face a stalemate for a short period of time, and this time is no exception!
The inventory of gray fabrics has declined. Is this a rebound signal for the market?
“Everyone prospers, everyone loses” refers to the relationship between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. At present, the upstream The raw material market is actively releasing price increase signals, so can the downstream market take over smoothly?
We have always said that high inventory is a fatal factor restricting market development. The current sample enterprise data collected from China Silk City Network shows that the market inventory of gray fabrics is around 41-42 days, showing signs of decline compared with 42.5 days last week. Small orders have increased, and large orders have shown signs of loosening.
Mr. Ma, who owns more than 170 water-jet looms in the Wujiang area, also said that the market It is better than before, and the delivery speed is significantly accelerated. “What we sell is market goods. Recently, the speed is fast and the volume is large. The inventory has been directly reduced by 10 days. Downstream traders have received more goods than before.” Conventional products that have been dormant for more than a month, such as polyester taffeta, spring taffeta, etc. The market transactions of Yafang, Oxford cloth and other products have also improved to varying degrees. “Recently, our coarse-denier Oxford cloth has been doing well in the market, and the supply of certain specifications has become tight.” said the owner of an Oxford cloth weaving factory in Shengze area.
Is this a signal that the market is releasing a rebound? However, in terms of traded products, there are no hot products in the market at present, and the overall transactions are relatively mixed. Although the prices of raw materials have increased and the prices of gray fabrics have stabilized smoothly, there are still many conventional products that are not selling well, such as chiffon, hemp and other imitation silk products. The market is still weak. Some manufacturers said that the current inventory of gray fabrics has exceeded 40 days. Moreover, manufacturers with high inventories and high loads are not an exception in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The market is still under the pressure of overcapacity.
In addition, from the perspective of the terminal clothing market, the current life of clothing factories is not easy. It is understood that in the past, when many garment factories received an order, each style would often cost tens to hundreds of thousands of pieces. Once the goods were shipped, they would be shipped in at least one cabinet or even several cabinets. But now there are very few such customers. . Even if there is a cabinet, it is rarely one style, but many styles, many colors, and even many items put together. Generally, it is normal to have hundreds of pieces of each style and color, which also leads to the need for fabrics. Order demand is increasingly trending towards “small orders”, and the fabric market lacks large orders to boost confidence, which has also led to a relatively slow rebound in the market.
Once upon a time, the textile and garment industry was booming, but now many clusters are performing so-so, and a few companies are disappearing. Why?
“Currently, some mid- to low-end products have been transferred to Southeast Asian countries,” an industry source said. “From this year’s perspective, market demand growth will still be weak, and exports are facing Greater uncertainties and trade frictions will also affect the market. There is still a tough battle to be fought in the textile market in the second half of the year!” What will happen tomorrow? Everyone doesn’t know it, but we can calm down and never build up until we break down!
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