Recently, driven by good news such as the resumption of Sino-US trade negotiations, the polyester industry chain, whether it is PTA, PX or polyester filament, has experienced a significant increase.
On July 1, PTA futures hit the daily limit, and polyester filament prices rose by 200-400 yuan/ton.
On July 2, the main force of PTA futures continued to hit the daily limit, and the price of polyester filament rose by 100-300 yuan/ton.
But at the same time, cloth bosses said that their business has not changed much from before, and the increase in raw material prices is more due to speculation.
N ways to speculate on raw materials
Speculation in the news
Speculating on news is the most common means of speculation. Take this meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States as an example. Textile companies generally stated that their current order volume has not changed significantly compared with the previous period, and the number of orders remains the same. Very little, but the price of polyester raw materials has risen like this.
In addition to some international news, some social news or emergencies can also cause market fluctuations. For example, the news of the explosion of Taiwan’s Formosa Plastics PX device on April 8 caused a period of During this time, the prices of various products in the polyester industry chain have increased significantly in a short period of time.
Oil prices
International oil prices, as the most source of raw materials in the polyester industry chain, will naturally have a great impact on the prices of polyester products. .
I still remember that in November last year, due to the uproar caused by OPEC’s production cuts and the Khashoggi case, international oil prices fluctuated sharply in a short period of time, and PTA futures also reached the limit several times.
Experience shows that every time international oil prices rise sharply, it will almost always lead to a wave of PTA increases, and the price of polyester filament will also fluctuate to a large extent.
Speculation on production and sales
Production, sales and inventory are also important speculation points. Normally, 100% of polyester factory production and sales is a dividing line. If the average production and sales exceed 100%, upstream raw materials will most likely rise the next day, which will drive the price of polyester filament to continue to rise.
The amount of inventory is related to the success rate of speculation. When the inventory is at a low level, polyester raw material companies also have greater confidence to speculate.
Frying device
Polyester, PTA, PX and other large devices All require regular inspection and maintenance to maintain its safety and normal operation. During equipment maintenance, it is normal for production capacity to decrease and product supply and demand to change, causing small price fluctuations.
But now this situation is getting worse, and device maintenance has become a means for some companies and institutions to speculate on the market.
Take PTA in early June. One moment it was announced that the PTA equipment would be overhauled, and the next it was said that the overhaul would be postponed. This went back and forth, but in the end the production capacity did not change much, and the price of PTA It has gone up quite a bit.
Hard speculation
There is another method, which is more upright. When the manufacturer sees the goods, they basically don’t worry about selling them, and they don’t play tricks with you. I told you that I was going to raise the price, and then I directly raised the price.
I still remember the PX in July last year. There was no sign at that time. PX rose inexplicably, causing PTA and polyester filament to rise like crazy.
In the future, as the production capacity of bulk commodities is increasingly concentrated in leading companies, such hard speculation may become more and more common. There is no way, who calls them all “big guys”? Weaving companies can only tremble in the face of price increases.
After the hype, who will clean up the “mess” left behind?
Following the trend is a relatively common behavior in business. Whether it is buying up or down raw materials, or water-jet looms expanding to the periphery, these are largely the result of following the trend.
But in fact, such speculation has done great harm to the market.
In the first half of last year, it was difficult to find “bad cloth” such as pongee and polyester taffeta, which made many weaving bosses determined to expand production scale in peripheral areas, which eventually led to this year’s The market weakened very quickly in the first half of the year;
The surge in polyester raw materials in July and August last year caused the available funds in the hands of weaving companies to shrink significantly. Therefore, the market in the first half of this year was not as expected. At that time, the ability of weaving companies to resist risks dropped significantly, so there was so much selling in the market.
It can be said that hype overdraws the present at the expense of the future.
But the market is sometimes so helpless. When faced with urgently needed products such as raw materials, when everyone is hyping them, what’s the use of being sober when everyone is drunk? Can you still not buy it?
After the wave of hype, the “big guys” made all their money, but the “mess” left behind has to be borne by the entire market!
Thinking question: The recent rise in PTA has been very obvious. What speculation techniques have been used? What about? Welcome to leave a message to communicate with us</p
