Beginning on June 13, PTA changed its downward trend since April and began to surge.
Take the main PTA futures 1909 as an example. When the market opened on June 13, PTA was only at 5114 points, but by the close of July 2, PTA had risen to 6448 points, an increase of 1334 points.
For Boss Bu, the situation when PTA began to rise sharply in late June seemed a bit familiar. Last year, at almost the same time, PTA prices began to surge sharply, from less than 6,000 points to almost over 10,000 points.
And this time, the market for polyester is about to “take off”, amid many good news With the support, the market seems to have developed similarly to last year.
First of all, oil-producing countries frequently receive favorable news. Crude oil is the most upstream of the polyester industry chain, and the rise in oil prices can largely promote the polyester market. On the one hand, on July 1, OPEC agreed to extend the production reduction agreement for nine months, and international crude oil supply has further tightened; on the other hand, the Iranian nuclear issue has become increasingly intense, the US attitude is unclear, and the relationship between the Persian Gulf oil-producing countries Increasingly tense. Of course, the plunge in international oil prices on the evening of July 2 has cast a certain shadow on the market. How oil prices will develop in the future remains to be seen.
Secondly, Sino-US trade negotiations have resumed. China-U.S. trade negotiations have resumed, and the threat of US$300 billion in tariffs has been temporarily eliminated, bringing very sufficient confidence to the market. Of course, this confidence is mainly reflected at the macro level. Affected by this, the RMB exchange rate began to appreciate significantly. The offshore RMB rose by 500 basis points in a single day, and the registered RMB rose by 200 basis points in a single day. There was also speculation in commodity futures such as PTA. reasons. But for Boss Bu, real orders may not come so quickly.
Finally, polyester filament stocks are at low levels. Polyester stock is high, even if PTA rises sharply, polyester prices will not be able to increase the confidence; polyester stocks are low, polyester prices will have sufficient reason to follow the rise. From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, polyester companies were still troubled by high inventory. The inventory reached a historical high, but the price of polyester yarn fell to a historical low. However, after multiple waves of high production and sales in the past month, the current inventory of polyester factories has reached a historical low for the same period. In other words, polyester filament now has ample room for price increases.
After talking about the similarities, there are still many differences between this year and last year, which may make the next The falling polyester market has changed.
First of all, the market sentiment has changed. The weaving market has a boom cycle, and this cycle is generally a three-year cycle. In the second half of last year, the textile market experienced a transition from cyclical boom to cyclical recession.
In the first half of last year, the supply of conventional products exceeded demand, and weaving companies were reluctant to accept orders. They had money on hand and were not panicking; in the first half of this year, the supply of conventional products exceeded demand, and the off-season came early. All the money of weaving companies is put on inventory, which is huge!
Secondly, the willingness to purchase raw materials has changed. If the raw materials for the polyester industry are going to rise, weaving companies will also need to buy them, right?
On the one hand, due to inventory factors, many weaving companies in the traditional textile clusters of Jiangsu and Zhejiang and peripheral areas have plans to reduce production or even stop production in July, which can alleviate the problem. Secondly, financial pressure can also increase the price of gray fabrics. As a result, the market demand for polyester filament will be reduced;
On the other hand, weaving companies generally purchase raw materials in two ways One strategy is regular cyclical buying, and the other is buying in large quantities when the price of raw materials increases. Many weaving companies with the latter strategy have already purchased during the previous wave of production and sales.
Finally, it is a matter of market confidence. Judging from market research, textile companies generally show a relatively pessimistic attitude towards the market situation in the second half of the year. Although there is a general view in the textile market that one should buy up rather than buy down, whether the rising trend can be sustained ultimately depends on market expectations. Therefore, unless raw materials can maintain an upward trend for a long time, downstream weaving companies are likely not to buy it this time, but it may be difficult to rely on polyester companies to unilaterally increase prices.
In general, the rise in raw materials this time is mainly due to the unilateral wishes of upstream raw material companies. It is necessary to replicate the crazy market situation in July and August last year, but due to the pessimistic judgment of the market in the second half of the year, downstream weaving companies may not cooperate with this, and may even use means such as production restrictions and suspensions to resist. The author judges that this round of raw material rally may come to an abrupt end in the near future. </p
