On July 22-23, the main 1909 contract of PTA futures fell by the limit for two consecutive days without major fluctuations in fundamentals, causing an uproar in the market.
The black swan appears and PTA explodes!
Since the introduction of the concept of futures, commodities such as PTA and ethylene glycol now have a layer of financial attributes in addition to their original commodity attributes.
Under normal circumstances, the financial attributes of PTA are more reflected in the hype of manufacturers and capital. At the same time last year, the price of upstream PX increased, and terminal weaving inventories were cleared. PTA was speculated in this way, resulting in an increase of nearly 60%, which caused complaints from the downstream.
This time, due to the fermentation of the Huatai OTC options incident, Zhongtuo companies are facing serious credit problems. There have been no significant changes in device maintenance, upstream PX, and downstream demand, and even crude oil While the price still rose slightly, the main force of PTA futures actually fell below the limit for two consecutive days.
It can be said that the direct reason for this round of PTA futures falling to the limit is the impact of the futures company’s funds, and the financial attributes of PTA are fully demonstrated. In addition to financial reasons, this year’s polyester-weaving industry chain itself also has very big hidden dangers.
It’s hard to stand out! PTA’s big drop is just around the corner
For PTA, the situation on the futures side will greatly affect the spot side, but in the past, most of them followed the rise. It is relatively rare to follow the decline.
From a profit perspective, PTA processing fees are currently “outstanding” in the polyester industry chain. According to data analysis from China Silk City Network, on July 22, PTA spot processing fees were 1,234 Yuan/ton, while most products in the polyester industry chain were at a slight loss during the same period, so there is ample room for price decline.
From a supply and demand perspective, as of July 19, PTA social inventory was approximately 1.3 million tons. At the end of July, Fuhaichuang’s device plans to restart; in September, Xinfengming’s new device with a production capacity of 1 million tons/year plans to start up. In addition, compared with the inventory of 600,000 tons in the same period last year, the current inventory is on the high side. After the polyester factory’s operating rate dropped in the first two weeks, the operating rate is currently around 86%.
After the futures limit fell, there was a large amount of spot goods in the market that could not be sold outside. On the one hand, polyester factories wanted PTA prices to fall, and on the other hand, PTA companies wanted to raise prices to ensure profits. However, judging from the current situation, it is not known when this round of decline in PTA futures will stop. A decline in PTA spot prices in the future is a high probability event.
Poor production and sales! Prices dropped! Polyester filament continues to be sluggish
Because the market was partially overdrawn in June, polyester filament has been in a relatively sluggish situation since July.
In terms of production and sales, polyester filament has been troubled by production and sales problems since July. After a wave of production and sales broke out at the beginning of the month, production and sales have almost remained below 50%.
In terms of inventory, sluggish production and sales have brought about a large backlog of inventory. Judging from the statistics of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market has increased slightly to 13-22 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory has reached 7-11 days, FDY inventory has reached around 13-19 days, and DTY inventory has reached around 13-19 days. Then it will take about 20-25 days.
In terms of price, after entering July, the price of polyester filament has basically been in a state of decline. The weekly decline of products is basically 200-400 yuan/ton. Taking polyester FDY150D as an example, the price on July 1 was 9,050 yuan/ton, but on July 22, the price dropped to 8,350 yuan/ton, a drop of 700 yuan/ton.
Affected by the lower limit of PTA futures, the price of polyester filament continued to fall on July 23, with prices of various products generally falling by 100-200 yuan/ton.
Under the overall sluggish market conditions, the price of raw polyester filament by terminal weaving enterprises has become As polyester prices continue to fall, weaving companies will maintain a wait-and-see attitude towards raw materials. It is expected that polyester production and sales will continue to be sluggish in the future.
Weaving-Kunba’s mother opened the door for Kubo, Kubo is home
Because of the water-jet loom Due to overcapacity and the fact that the off-season in the first half of this year came earlier than in previous years, today’s weaving companies have become spokespersons for the poor.
In terms of inventory, weaving companies now have�Inventories have reached a high of 41-42 days. The inventory of weaving enterprises of a certain scale is measured in millions of meters, and the inventory of some larger weaving enterprises even exceeds 10 million meters.
In terms of price, there is overcapacity, inventory backlog, and supply exceeds demand, so the price of gray fabrics will naturally not rise. The prices of conventional products such as pongee and polyester taffeta have been almost cut in half compared to the same period last year, with a drop of more than 40%. The current situation for products with certain production thresholds, such as four-sided elastic, is not optimistic either. The price per meter of cloth The price also fell by more than 1 yuan compared with the same period last year.
The price of gray cloth is closely related to the price of raw materials. As the prices of PTA and polyester filament continue to fall, the price of gray cloth is bound to fall further. The price of inventory cloth has shrunk, and the wait-and-see mood in the market will increase. It is even more obvious that it will be more difficult for weaving companies to ship goods.
This round of sharp decline in PTA futures is, on the surface, due to financial reasons, but at a deeper level is its fundamentals The weak situation and high processing fees are just castles in the air created by the “big guys” using various means, but there are already many hidden dangers inside. There is a high probability that PTA will continue to fall in the future, and polyester filament is expected to follow suit. Weaving companies should continue to wait and see and purchase raw materials cautiously. </p
