PTA futures prices have been fluctuating recently, but whether it is crude oil, PX, equipment, inventory and other fundamentals, there are no factors that affect its ups and downs. . No matter how you look at it, PTA seems to be suspected of being a monster?
However, as a downstream polyester filament, its performance has been extremely stable recently; the market has been slightly weak Despite the slightest change, there is only room for price increases of about 50-100 yuan/ton, and production and sales are mostly short-lived “one-day trips”. Could it be that the polyester filament market is really going to transition into August in a dull state?
1. The price has dropped nearly 30% year-on-year, and there may be room for improvement from the low level during the year
The first thing that must be paid attention to is the price. In the past month, the price focus of various products in the polyester filament market has been relatively stable, and there has not been as much ups and downs as in the previous period. However, one thing that must be paid attention to is that the price of polyester filament is now almost at the low level of the year. Among them, POY 150D has fallen below the 8,000 mark, while DTY products have not only fallen below 10,000 yuan, but are approaching the 9,000 mark.
Especially from a year-on-year perspective, the price gap is even more obvious. Because the polyester filament market was in a period of rising prices last year and was at a relatively high level in 2018; in this comparison, the price gap is even greater. According to specific data, the current price of FDY 150D is around 8,050 yuan/ton, a sharp drop of nearly 3,350 yuan/ton year-on-year, or 29.4%. Similarly, the year-on-year price of POY 150D also dropped sharply by 3,540 yuan/ton to 7,760 yuan/ton. The decline reached 31.3%. It is conceivable that DTY could not escape the fate of sharp decline, falling sharply by 3,700 yuan/ton to 9,150 yuan/ton year-on-year, a drop of 28.8%.
Judging from such a sharp decline, it is expected that the prices of various polyester filament products will rise in the short term. The downside space is relatively limited. Judging from the market situation last year, although the price in mid-to-late August was high, it also paved the way for the market in September and October, and prices continued to rise after that. Therefore, under the current low prices, in accordance with the practice of previous years, there may be room for further price increases in the future.
2. Some dyeing factories experienced “liquidation”, and the weaving operation rate generally rebounded
According to the practice of previous years, market orders will be placed one after another in late August, paving the way for the arrival of the “Golden Nine”. And just around August 18, a fan of China Silk City Network broke the news that a printing and dyeing factory in Shengze had a “liquidation”, and the gray fabrics were piled up to the factory gate.
After investigation, it is understood that although this is a special phenomenon of individual printing and dyeing factories, overall, the number of orders from printing and dyeing factories has indeed increased significantly recently. According to statistics from China Silk City Network, the operating rate of dye vats has shown a linear upward trend in the recent period, with the operating rate rising from 75% at the end of May to around 90% currently.
The same is true for weaving, according to A survey of sample companies by China Silk City Network shows that since last week, the operating rates of several major industrial clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have rebounded to varying degrees. Among them, the operating rates of water-jet looms have increased to more than 80%, and the operating rates of circular knitting machines have increased from 40% to 40%. -50% has increased to 50-60%, and the warp knitting operation rate has also increased from 60% to about 70%. Compared with the beginning of August, the operation rate has generally increased by 5-10%.
The general increase in the start-up rate also means that there must be a rigid need for raw material procurement, which to a certain extent supports the demand momentum of the polyester filament market.
3. Decline in gray fabric inventory + month-end node may trigger phased operations of raw material procurement
Judging from the current downstream weaving market, market orders have increased significantly. Although there are differences between different products There is a certain differentiation, but overall, the enthusiasm for downstream orders, proofing, and inquiries are better than in the previous period. Among them, the most outstanding performance is the amplification of elastic fabric transactions. In addition to the sudden rise in the market performance of the new product T800, fabrics such as four-way elastic and T400 also have relatively strong demand. In any case, as market orders gradually improve, weaving manufacturers’ inventories have also declined. According to the data monitoring of sample companies by China Silk City Network, as of now, the inventory of gray fabric weaving in Shengze has dropped to about 41 days.
In addition, calculated according to a certain ratio, weaving manufacturers have high inventory of gray fabrics, which means they have to spend more on raw materials. Stocking up seems more prudent; on the contrary,�, the inventory of gray fabrics of weaving manufacturers has decreased, and accordingly the stocking of raw materials may increase to a certain extent. In recent days, as the market is expected to improve, the overall inventory of gray fabrics in the weaving market has declined. Naturally, some weaving manufacturers have taken measures to purchase raw materials. In addition, the end of the month is approaching, which is in line with the time node for raw material procurement. It is expected that the polyester market will be in the short term. There will be a wave of phased procurement operations.
Although the market has different views on this year’s “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” market, there has been a partial improvement in orders and a rebound in the overall operating rate, which is good for the market to a certain extent. At the same time, we also hope that polyester manufacturers can grasp the rhythm and achieve a “win-win” situation with weaving manufacturers. </p
