On August 24, the United States announced that it would increase tariffs on approximately $550 billion of Chinese goods exported to the United States, and claimed that it would “require American companies to leave China.”
On the evening of August 24, the Tariff Commission of the State Council issued two major announcements. These two major announcements are mainly aimed at the United States’ imports of approximately US$300 billion in goods from China. Countermeasures to impose a 10% tariff: First, it was decided to impose additional tariffs on approximately US$75 billion of imported goods originating in the United States. The second is the decision to resume additional tariffs on cars and parts originating in the United States. At this point, China’s countermeasures, which have been paying close attention to the market for a long time, have finally come to fruition.
The United States announced an increase in tariff rates on China, triggering turmoil in the U.S. market and strong dissatisfaction from all walks of life in the United States; on that day, the Dow Jones Index fell by more than 600 points. “This is a major mistake.” The U.S. business community sharply criticized this statement. They warned that the escalation of economic and trade frictions would harm U.S. companies and the broader economy. At the same time, they claimed that U.S. companies were required to leave China, which would pose a threat to U.S. multinational companies. new threats.
However, what was originally thought to be bad news, as of Monday, the domestic commodity market The performance is quite mediocre! The issue of increased tariffs in the United States is no longer one or two. Sometimes it is implemented and sometimes postponed. As far as the Chinese market is concerned, it can be faced with it calmly. For the textile market, “one stone” is also difficult to stir up waves!
1. PTA had a “flash crash” at its opening. Subsequent rebound, holding 5,000 points!
We know that macroeconomic news has a relatively obvious impact on the commodity futures market; however, the entire futures market has reacted relatively calmly to this wave of tariff rate fluctuations. . From the perspective of PTA futures, although it faced a “flash crash” shortly after the opening, it rebounded and rebounded. After that, the market fluctuated slightly and basically stabilized at 5,000 points. As of the close on the 26th, the main 2001 contract closed at 5,094 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 18 yuan/ton, or 0.35%, compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day.
2. Ethylene glycol has gone against the normal state of “Adou”, with supply and demand supporting it, and has rebounded!
The ethylene glycol market, which has performed most poorly in the polyester industry chain recently, went against the norm, with both pallets and electronic trays rising on the 26th. On the futures side, the main ethylene glycol 2001 contract closed at 4,622 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 77 yuan/ton, or 1.69%, compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day.
This is mainly due to the support of the fundamentals of the ethylene glycol market. First of all, the supply and demand pattern is in a healthy development. It is reported that the current operating rate of ethylene glycol remains at a low level of around 62%. Although the recovery of domestic supply is limited, shipments from the main port will still remain high, and the overall destocking intensity from August to October will be around 200,000-250,000 tons.
3. Polyester filament may be purchased in stages, and the market is expected to be positive!
Extending from the upstream polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol, the focus must be on the polyester filament market. In the recent period, the mainstream prices of polyester filament have been relatively stable, and there has not been as much ups and downs as in the previous period. However, as mentioned in the author’s previous article, the price of polyester filament is now almost at the low level of the year, with POY150D falling below the 8,000 mark, and DTY products not only falling below 10,000 yuan, but also approaching the 9,000 mark; year-on-year prices The gap is even more obvious. Whether it is FDY, POY or DTY, the price focus of each product has generally fallen by around 28%-32% year-on-year. Judging from such a sharp decline, it is expected that the price decline of various polyester filament products will be limited in the short term.
In fact, since mid-to-late August, the operating rates of several major industrial clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have rebounded to varying degrees. The general increase in operating rates also means that there must be a rigid demand for raw material procurement. This is certain. To a certain extent, it supports the demand momentum of the polyester filament market. As the market is expected to improve, the overall inventory of gray fabrics in the weaving market has declined. Naturally, some weaving manufacturers have taken measures to purchase raw materials. In addition, it is approaching the end of the month, which is in line with the time node for raw material procurement. It is expected that the price will gather in the short term.The market may usher in a wave of phased procurement operations. Since the beginning of this year, the production and sales of the polyester filament market have shown a pulse pattern, and downstream demand has improved moderately, which has an obvious easing effect on polyester manufacturers.
In general, for the polyester market, in the short term, under the fundamental operation, the performance of each product is quite strong; in the future, the key is to pay attention to the terminal recovery strength and demand expectations.
As announced on the website of the Ministry of Commerce, China firmly opposes this kind of unilateral and bullying trade protectionism and extreme pressure, which violates the consensus reached by the heads of state of China and the United States. Those who violate the principles of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit and seriously undermine the multilateral trading system and normal international trade order will surely reap the consequences. China strongly urges the United States not to misjudge the situation, not to underestimate the determination of the Chinese people, and to immediately stop its wrong practices, otherwise the United States will bear all the consequences.
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