September 15, 250%, 160%, 300%, 200%…
September On the 16th, 450%, 350%, 400%, 300%…
September 17th, 220%, 120% , 130%, 150%…
The mainstream production and sales of the polyester market finally ushered in the long-lost “three consecutive increases”!
Polyester filament serves as the “flow responsibility” of the polyester industry chain. It has indeed brought a great confidence boost to the textile market!
In the early morning of last Saturday (14th), two oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, known as “the world’s most important oil refining platform”, were attacked by drones, causing fires. It is understood that this attack caused Saudi Arabia to shut down half of its oil production, accounting for about 5% of the world’s daily oil production; this news really surprised the market.
Compared to the quiet months of July and August, this news brought a commotion to the polyester industry chain in September. The growth of various products in the polyester industry chain has been launched one after another. Whether it is PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, or polyester filament, they have all achieved a beautiful “turnaround.”
1. Polyester filament finally broke the “one-day trip” curse, with both volume and price rising!
Boosted by this “warm flow of crude oil”, the polyester filament market has finally broken through the short-term “one-day trend” in terms of price focus and production and sales. “Travel” curse. Mainstream polyester manufacturers have shown steady rising prices for two consecutive trading days, with the average daily increase of mainstream manufacturers reaching the level of 50-150 yuan/ton. Judging from the specific data, the price focus of mainstream products has finally washed away the low price trend for more than a month and returned to the upward momentum, and the price has rebounded to its position in mid-to-late July.
Similarly, in the past three trading days, the mainstream production and sales of polyester have been even more gratifying. On the 15th, production and sales have risen to nearly 120%; as crude oil soars, the transaction atmosphere of the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has increased. Continue to rise, production and sales surge; according to statistics, the production and sales of mainstream polyester factories rose sharply to around 260%-270% on the 16th, with some reaching 350% or even 450%. The reason is that some weaving manufacturers have taken notice of the trend. Under the bullish mentality, their purchasing enthusiasm has been significantly improved, and they have purchased raw materials in large quantities to avoid rising raw material prices in the future. There are also some weaving manufacturers that do not have much stock before the Mid-Autumn Festival and have certain purchasing needs after the festival. Regardless of the purpose, the mainstream production and sales of polyester have indeed improved significantly.
Ethylene glycol became a blockbuster, narrowing the price difference with PTA for the first time this year!
In this round of gains, the most outstanding performance is actually ethylene glycol. The once “unable to support Adou” suddenly ushered in a “turnover” Quotes. On the 16th, chemical commodity futures jumped short and opened higher, and the trend of ethylene glycol was particularly eye-catching. The main contract 2001 opened close to the daily limit. After a short dip, it resumed its upward trend and finally closed at the daily limit of 4993 points. On the 17th, ethylene glycol futures continued to open higher and move higher, with the main contract also rising by the limit within two hours of opening; the spot market followed suit and moved higher.
Since this year, ethylene glycol The market has been running weakly, and the gap with PTA is also getting farther and farther. What is particularly gratifying is that in this wave of rising prices, the center of gravity of ethylene glycol prices finally approached the price of PTA for the first time this year, and the gap narrowed significantly.
However, according to our past experience, positive boosting factors such as the upstream market or macroeconomic factors will only drive the polyester filament, PTA, and ethylene glycol markets for a short period of time. . Comparing the market price increases, futures increases, and mainstream production and sales on the 16th and 17th, it seems that the upward momentum has shown signs of weakening.
1. A chain reaction driven by costs, bullishness is a short-term behavior!
Now, the aspect that the market is most concerned about must be the recovery of Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity. However, market participants expect that its short-term recovery is unlikely; therefore, there are many uncertainties in crude oil, which may still be able to support the high operation of crude oil prices. However, from a fundamental point of view, it can also be found in various surveys of market participants that most textile practitioners believe that this wave of bullish prices for PTA, ethylene glycol and polyester filament are short-term behaviors and are driven by cost-side chains. reaction.
2. In the long run, return to fundamentals, supply…Pattern is still the key!
In the long term, returning to fundamentals, as far as the current market operations are concerned, both PTA factories and polyester manufacturers are at a high level, and there is still supply pressure. Increase expectations. In terms of PTA, the overhaul of major manufacturers has been delayed. With the expected launch of new production capacities such as Xinfengming, Hengli, and Xinjiang Zhongtai in the later period, supply pressure may gradually increase in the future. In the final analysis, the focus is still on the end market. If the downstream weaving and clothing industries fail to make a fundamental improvement in time and the demand side fails to improve, it will naturally restrict the polyester industry chain.
Whether the polyester filament market can continue to rise, and whether production and sales can continue at high levels, will ultimately be determined by demand! It is expected that in the next “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”, more market trends will appear, making the textile market even more exciting. </p
