Ignorant editor: Boss, the raw materials have fallen to the bottom recently. Have you finally regained your health?
Boss Bu: Hehehehe…
In late October, the entire fabric market has shown signs of recovery. Orders were placed in an orderly manner and shipments from some gray fabric manufacturers were better than in the previous period. The market seemed to have caught the tail of the “Silver Ten” and began to take action. However, looking at the upstream raw material side, PTA fell below 5,000 points, MEG fluctuated at a low of 4,500 points, and polyester filament also fell into a deadlock with a weekly drop of about 200 yuan… The market as a whole showed a state of “cold at the top and hot at the bottom”, which is relatively rare. !
In the peak season, raw materials continue to fall, and excess production capacity is spreading to the upstream!
As far as the raw material market is concerned, this year’s “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” have already faded, and downstream centralized stocking operations have not appeared for a long time. Even though polyester filament briefly appeared due to low-price promotions1 -With production and sales exceeding 100 in two days, it is difficult to resist the fact that the overall inventory of the industry has increased. After all, if production and sales cannot increase, inventory accumulation will become inevitable!
Judging from the polyester filament trend chart in recent years, the price of polyester filament this year can be said to have fallen to the bottom. Among them, FDY150D is quoted at 7,300 yuan/ton, and POY150D is quoted at 7,300 yuan/ton. 7035 yuan/ton, DTY150D is quoted at 8750 yuan/ton. Compared with the beginning of the year, the prices fell by 18.44%, 13.68%, and 12.5% respectively.
Once upon a time, the price of polyester filament has been rising in September and October. In addition to the downstream texturing and weaving markets that have a strong mentality of stocking raw materials during the peak season, the upstream polyester Products such as PTA are performing strongly, but currently PTA futures have been falling, falling below the important level of 5,000 points in mid-October. In the fourth quarter, PTA will also face the commissioning of new equipment. Once Hengli Xinfengming’s PTA device with a total production capacity of 4.7 million tons has begun operation. PTA will become oversupplied and the pattern of overcapacity will gradually spread upwards, which will also cause the current polyester filament to lose the strong support of upstream costs. Later, it became more “vulnerable”.
The raw material industry chain has continued to plummet, and has also been suppressed by the weakening demand for purchasing raw materials from downstream manufacturers. At the end of September, the raw material inventory of most weaving manufacturers was about 10-15 days. Recently, many manufacturers said that they only stocked raw materials for about a week and did not consider purchasing more. As the atmosphere of overcapacity in the entire industrial chain continues to spread, many market participants have defined this year’s “peak” season as the “hopeful” season. Market orders have been stagnant, manufacturers’ inventory pressure has not diminished, and market confidence is insufficient, which has also made it difficult to start the market. .
The high inventory dilemma in the gray fabric market is still difficult to shake!
At present, we have been using “double high” to define the current weaving market: high production capacity, high inventory, the market is favorable and good, but compared with the traditional peak season The production and sales level is still not optimistic, and the quality is insufficient during the peak season. According to monitoring data from China Silk City Network, the inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze has dropped from 40 days to about 39 days, and the destocking speed is very slow.
According to the interview and survey, we learned that the current market as a whole is experiencing volume and price increases. Many fabric owners who make imitation silk have said that they have received several orders of tens of thousands of meters. A batch of conventional products previously piled in the factory have indeed been sold out, but the prices are lower than before. At present, the price of 75D chiffon has fallen below the 3 yuan mark. Compared with the price of 3.80 yuan/meter last year, the price has dropped by at least 20%. In addition, shipments of 190T and 210T polyester taffeta, which can be used for lining, have also improved due to lower temperatures recently, but prices are hovering at low levels. “Now our 190T polyester taffeta is less than 9 cents per meter, and the price has dropped by nearly 50%, but the order intake is better than before.” Boss Shen, who makes gallbladder fabrics, said, “Currently, the price of raw materials has been The price has dropped, and customers have been lowering prices, so in fact, profits have not improved particularly.”
At present, the overcapacity of conventional products in the market is still relatively obvious. According to the factory’s cloth boss, if we don’t reduce production, then the inventory will not be reduced. Although it is cruel, it is also true. Even though there are signs of improvement in the market, the early inventory base is large, causing many manufacturers’ inventories to remain at a high level of about 2 months. The high inventory dilemma is difficult to shake.
There are less than 70 days left until 2019, continueThe downtrend is unpredictable!
In the 2019 market, most textile people feel that the fortunes are unpredictable! Although there are signs of improvement in the market, we learned from companies that the continuity of orders is still average, and most companies have significantly reduced their transaction volume this year. A textile boss with a factory in Hebei said that last year the company’s turnover was 70-80 million yuan, but this year only 30-40 million yuan was left, which was cut in half.
The overall market confidence is lacking. Even those textile bosses who have already received orders at the end of the year believe that it is difficult for the market to rebound in the future and will still move forward so tepidly. After all, this year is already the third year of environmental protection rectification in the textile industry. The end button has not yet been pressed on the transfer of corporate production capacity. Many textile companies are still looking for suitable low-cost production bases to expand their scale. The market production capacity is still rising. There is no end demand. In the case of keeping pace with the situation, fierce competition is unavoidable, and those products with brands, differences, and high added value will survive the competition. In the future, textile companies will enter a situation where “the strong will get stronger.” .
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