It’s done again! Entering October, PTA and ethylene glycol both opened downward channels.
PTA’s internal price fell to a two-year low
MEG’s internal price fell by more than 15% in January
Currently, PTA and The spot price difference of ethylene glycol has slowly narrowed, shrinking to about 280 yuan/ton.
The supply and demand issue is a big reason for the decline of PTA and ethylene glycol. .
PTA is ushering in the equipment maintenance season, but the expected production of 5.9 million tons has increased market concerns
Since October , the PTA market has been hearing news of maintenance and suspension: Hengli Petrochemical and Honggang Petrochemical have stopped for maintenance, Jiangyin Hanbang and Yadong Petrochemical have also announced maintenance times. Recently, there are many temporary short-term shutdown devices, such as Yisheng Petrochemical and Pengwei Petrochemical. Petrochemical, Yadong Petrochemical, Sichuan Shengda, etc. These news are like a breath of fresh air for PTA, which is currently under low pressure, but the PTA market has not been boosted by this.
On the one hand, it has entered the fourth quarter, Xinfengming 2.2 million tons, Hengli Petrochemical When the 2.5 million tons and Xinjiang Zhongtai Kunyu 1.2 million tons units will be launched in the fourth quarter is the focus of the market. The market is worried. Once the production is confirmed, PTA will face an oversupply situation and it is difficult to reverse the market. On the other hand, PTA’s social inventory is currently around 1.325 million tons. Although it has declined from September, overall it is still at a high level during the year. Tired inventory also dragged down PTA prices to rise.
The ethylene glycol load is reduced, but the destocking process is not as good as the previous period
In the fourth quarter, ethylene glycol ushered in the maintenance season. On the 21st, a 200,000-ton MEG device in Yongcheng, Henan Province was shut down for maintenance. The maintenance is expected to take about 20 days. A 380,000-ton ethylene glycol plant in Guangzhou, a 200,000-ton ethylene glycol plant in Yizheng Chemical Fiber, and a 240,000-ton ethylene glycol plant in Xiamen all have production shutdown and maintenance plans. Installation and maintenance can easily boost the market, but ethylene glycol is “turning a deaf ear to what’s going on outside the window” and only cares about its own decline.
On the one hand, the market for ethylene glycol is not good, and profits have dropped at the same time, and have now fallen to around -$31. Therefore, manufacturers began to reduce their load to protect capital. Currently, the total load of ethylene glycol is around 62.9%, down 11.4% from last week.
On the other hand, if ethylene glycol can continue to be prosperous in September, it still needs to be Benefit from its low inventory. At present, although the inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China is still at a low level of 619,000 tons during the year, the inventory digestion speed is not as fast as in the previous period, and the overall destocking speed has slowed down.
Polyester filament production and sales only exceeded 100 twice a month
Whether it is a supply and demand issue or something else, in the final analysis, it is because of sluggish downstream demand that it is difficult to provide good momentum for the upstream cost end.
PTA and ethylene glycol are the main raw materials for the production of polyester filament, accounting for about 85% of the production cost of polyester filament. To produce 1 ton of polyester filament, approximately 0.855 tons of PTA are needed and 0.335 tons of MEG. However, since October, the production and sales of polyester filament have been poor, with only two times exceeding 100 prices.
Although the price of raw materials has fallen to the low level during the year, taking polyester filament FDY 50D/24F as an example, the current price is around 8,800 yuan , the price in the same period last year was around 12,600 yuan, a significant drop of around 3,800 yuan. At present, there is no more room for decline in polyester filament prices, but weaving factories still maintain a cautious attitude towards the procurement of raw materials and still focus on rigid demand.
Although the market of weaving manufacturers has picked up recently, the operating rate of weaving manufacturers still remains at about 70-80%, which is not enough to consume so much production capacity. At the same time, the inventory of gray fabrics of weaving manufacturers is still around 38-39 days, and the destocking is slow. , the demand for raw materials is not strong.
Both PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to be put into production in the later period, but the market confidence is insufficient. The cost end cannot provide a good support for polyester filament. In addition, the downstream weaving destocking is relatively slow, and it is difficult to realize the inventory in a short period of time. Due to financial pressure, weaving manufacturers are cautious about polyester filament and will not purchase large quantities. Later polyester filamentThe potential is still determined by terminal demand.
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