Is this the worst year for the textile industry?
What is the voice of the vast majority of people in the textile industry?
In the first half of 2019, the textile market was relatively stable. Although compared with In the first two years, there was still a certain gap; but both the raw material side and the woven side were relatively “mild”. However, in less than half a year, the textile industry has undergone an almost 180-degree reversal. The “fatigue” of the market has become apparent, and the polyester industry chain cannot escape the tragic fate!
Since the traditional off-season of July and August, the textile market has This has lived up to the “nickname” of off-season. Whether it is prices, orders, inventories or profits, compared with the situation in recent years, they have all declined at a speed “visible to the naked eye”. Especially compared with the previous two years, there are huge changes.
PX: May becomes a “watershed”, prices Dropped to three-and-a-half-year low!
Traditionally, the raw material PX occupies a relatively strong position in the polyester industry chain. However, with the explosion of PX production capacity in 2019, a rough calculation of my country’s 2019 PX production capacity will increase by at least 10 million tons, with a growth rate of up to 75%. This phenomenon is quietly changing. Especially in May, it became a watershed in the PX market, with prices falling “cliff-like”, and then PX prices continued to run at a low level.
In terms of specific prices, as of October 22, the price of PX in Asia to US$760.67/ton FOB South Korea and US$780.67/ton CFR China, and European PX to US$708/ton FOB Rotterdam. Looking at this price, it is not only the lowest price in the PX market since 2019, but also the lowest price in the past three and a half years since March 2016.
PTA: “The style of painting changed suddenly” in the second half of the year, Prices hit a new low in more than two years!
If you use one word to describe PTA in the first half of this year, it would be “willful”! In the first half of the year, PTA was definitely the “outstanding player” in the polyester industry chain. Not only did the price surge sharply, but the profit was more than 1,000 yuan, and it has unlimited success. However, since the second half of the year, the PTA market has undergone a sudden change. No matter what good news stimulates the market, PTA prices will not increase. Even if they rise slightly due to some unexpected events, they will definitely fall back soon.
In recent days, PTA futures have been declining, falling below 5000 points is an important position; as of the close of October 23, the closing price of the main 2001 contract of PTA futures fell to 4880 points. As for the spot price, the current internal price of PTA is mostly around 4850 yuan/ton to 4950 yuan/ton, which is also at the low price this year. Judging from the comparison of price data in recent years, the price center of PTA has now fallen back to the price level in early July 2017, setting a new low in the past two years.
Ethylene Glycol: “Flash in the Pan”, falls back to Price lowest since January 2016!
Since its listing in December last year, ethylene glycol futures have experienced more than three months of consolidation and have been on a downward trend, and have continued to adjust at low levels since then; affected by this , since this year, the spot price of ethylene glycol has been mostly weak. Until September, stimulated by the low inventory, the ethylene glycol market was quite vigorous, and the price center of gravity was strong and upward; but in October, the market started to rise and fall back, traders were wailing on the sidelines, and the overall intention to hold goods was weak. .
In terms of specific prices, as of October 23, DCE MEG’s main 2001 contract closed down to 4530 points. The spot price of ethylene glycol is also weak, with the internal price falling back to around 4,600 yuan/ton to 4,650 yuan/ton, which is close to the low of the year; compared with the price data of previous years, it has refreshed the price low since January 2016. , becoming the lowest level in the past four years.
Polyester filament: a price low in more than three years , the loss is even worse!
Since the beginning of this year, the polyester filament market has hardly experienced major fluctuations. Prices have continued to run at low levels, and low peak seasons have become the norm. Especially in recent months, the price focus of polyester filament products has fallen to the lowest level in the year; through data comparison, it is not difficult to see that the price of raw materials has basically fallen back to the low level in July 2016. It is conceivable that This has become the lowest price in more than three years. It’s not just the price that makes polyester manufacturers sad. It hovers near the profit and loss line and accidentally falls into a loss situation, which doubles the pressure on polyester manufacturers.
Although the prices of various products in the polyester industry chain are at multi-year lows, and in the second half of the “Silver Ten”, the polyester market experienced another wave of decline; but there is not a trace of good news. The recent market And gradually release good signals, which may have a certain boost to the market.
1. The Sino-US trade war has eased
It is understood that , on the afternoon of October 22, information released by the Ministry of Commerce showed that the U.S. Department of Commerce recently issued an announcement stating that it would initiate an exclusion process for products on China’s $300 billion tariff list starting from October 31. From October 31, 2019 to January 31, 2020, U.S. interested parties can submit an exclusion application to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). The information required includes the substitutability of the relevant products and whether anti-dumping and anti-dumping measures have been imposed. Subsidy tax, whether it has important strategic significance or is related to industrial policies such as Made in China 2025, etc. If the exclusion application is approved, the tariffs already imposed since September 1, 2019 can be retroactively refunded.
In any case, the announcement released by the United States this time is more of a boost to market confidence, whether it is the exchange rate, futures market, or the overall textile market, or more At least there is a certain degree of confidence support.
2. The domestic and foreign trade demand in the weaving market has improved month-on-month.
In recent times, the demand for domestic and foreign trade in the weaving market has gradually improved month-on-month. Fabrics Partial transactions in the market were better than in the previous period. For example, this year’s hot products T400 and T800 series have performed well overall whether they are ordered or sold on the market. Another hot spot, recycled fabrics, has also seen a good atmosphere for inquiries and sampling recently. Most of the orders come from European and American countries. It is said that a boss has already accepted them. More than 300,000 meters of orders have been received; the market outlook is expected to have great development potential. At the same time, driven by the movement of goods in the market, the high inventory pressure accumulated in the early stage has also been alleviated; according to sample enterprise data from China Silk City Network, the current inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze has dropped to about 38 days.
No matter what, the market should still have expectations and Good news, don’t be too pessimistic about the future of the polyester industry chain. As the latest data shows, Hengli Petrochemical, which operates the entire industry chain from upstream crude oil processing to downstream polyester manufacturing, has continued to improve its profitability, injecting a “boost” into the market!
In the first three quarters of this year, Hengli Petrochemical achieved revenue of 76.329 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.14%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 6.817 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.64%. Not only did it exceed last year’s full-year profit level, but both revenue scale and profit level hit record highs.
</p
