The recent situation of the polyester market is not good. Since the second half of this year, the price of polyester bottle flakes has continued to fall. Fade further and further away.
Since June, polyester bottle flakes have shown a downward trend, Although During the period, there was a wave of rebound,but it was like a “flash in the pan”, and fell again. In general, Prices remain low. 5To date, the price of polyester bottle flakes has dropped from 8250yuan/ton to the current 6 span>500The low level of yuan/ton, dropped by more than 21%!
Recent gatherings In addition to being stuck in the quagmire of low prices, ester bottle flakes are also experiencing serious profit losses. As can be seen from the picture above, The losses of polyester bottle flakes have been increasing since May. Although it successfully got out of the quagmire of losses in August, the loss in September Falling in again! The average profit loss of bottle flakes in October reached 102yuan/ton.
Cost support is strong
Specifically, Since August the market price of upstream polyester raw material PTA has been general and prices are at low levels. However, for polyester bottle flakes that are constantly falling, the price of PTA is still relatively high, making it unable to support the falling bottle flakes, thus falling into losses. Ethylene glycolDue to the launch of new production capacity starting fromthe second half of the year, the supply of ethylene glycol has increased significantly. At the same time, the downstream demand for polyester Weaker demand for the product has contributed to the recent decline in ethylene glycol prices. Although the price of ethylene glycol has fallen, it only accounts for a small proportion of the cost. The price of PTA, which is the bulk of the cost, remains stable, so the cost support is still adequate. The firm cost has led to the embarrassing situation of bottle flakesloss.
Our own demand weakens
After October, downstream demand enters the off-season, polyester The demand situation for bottle tablets is not ideal. However, due to the current stabilization of prices, downstreamoccasionally major beverage manufacturers have placed large orders to replenish supplies. As for the export market, since the beginning of this year, the export volume of polyester bottle flakeshas been on a downward trend. In September, China exported 201,000 tons of polyester bottle flakes, a decrease of 14,900 tons from the previous month, and the average customs price was US$933.
What will happen to the future of polyester bottle flakes that have been falling continuously and are deeply in losses?
Due to seasonal influence, the fourth quarter is also the maintenance period of traditional bottle flake factories.Recently, some polyester bottle flake equipment has entered the shutdown stage for maintenance. It is reported that on October 20, 1a 250,000-ton polyester bottle flake device in Yizheng, Jiangsu was shut down for maintenance, which took about one month;On October 24, Guangzhou Taibao’s 500,000-ton polymerization unit was shut down for maintenance, which involved 400,000 tons of polyester bottle flakes and 100,000 tons of polyester chips. The maintenance time took about half a month; On October 24, a 300,000-ton unit of Zhuhai China Resources entered the maintenance period early for some reason, and the maintenance time was about 40 days.
Currently, The market load of polyester bottle flakes is around 78%. Bottle chip inventory consumption is mainly concentrated in July and August. Starting from September, the purchase volume and frequency of terminal beverage manufacturers have decreased. During the off-season of the industry, the overall market transaction situation gradually declined. At the same time, downstream manufacturers have replenished a large amount of goods in advance. It will be difficult for large quantities of goods to be shipped out in the short term, so The demand side is difficult to provide positive support.
Overall, the fourth quarter has entered the off-season for the polyester bottle flake industry, and the demand sidewill The weak trend continues. In the short term, the raw material market support is acceptable, but under the influence of the off-season, the trend will eventually be weak. The maintenance of bottle tablet devices has gradually increased, the contradiction between supply and demand has moderately eased, and there is not much room for continued decline. The author predictsNovemberThe market for polyester bottle flakes will mostly fluctuate and be weak, but there will be more trends in the later period Dependent on the raw material market.
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