Since the listing of futures, the trends of PTA futures and spot markets have been very similar,
“If you go up, I will go up, and if you go down, I will go down.”
As a result, the PTA market has become quite sensitive!
Recently, PTA futures have continued to fall, falling below 5,000 points and 4,800 points successively. , 4700 points… The spot market price has also been falling all the way, and the profits have shrunk sharply. In just a few months, from the top of the “powerful” profit, it has directly fallen below the profit point, resulting in a loss situation.
In the final analysis, it still lies in the imbalance between supply and demand! ! !
1. The road to vertical industrial chain, PTA enters the production capacity expansion cycle
As we all know, in recent years, major polyester manufacturers have launched vertical industry chains, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Group, Tongkun Group, Hengyi Group, Shenghong Group, Xinfengming and other large polyester leading enterprises. After integration, acquisition, reorganization and expansion, it entered the PTA market, promoted from downstream to upstream, and broadened the industrial layout.
Although this is conducive to the increase in the concentration of the domestic PTA industry and the stabilization of the industry’s voice, with the continuous expansion of production capacity, PTA’s strong position in the polyester industry chain is gradually declining. changes happened. From the fourth quarter of 2019 to 2020, PTA will enter a production capacity expansion cycle, with the annual production capacity growth rate expected to be 25%, which is much greater than the production capacity growth rate of downstream polyester during the same period. If calculated based on the current operating rate and import and export, it is inevitable that PTA supply exceeds demand.
2. Although polyester production capacity has expanded, it is far lower than the growth rate of PTA production capacity
From the perspective of the downstream polyester market, although the scale of polyester production capacity has continued to expand since this year , but this is far lower than the growth rate of PTA production capacity. According to statistical data, China’s total polyester production from January to October 2019 was 41.426 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%; from January to October, a total of 14 polyester units with a total production capacity of 3.12 million tons were put into operation or expanded, mainly polyester There are three major sectors: chips, polyester filament and polyester staple fiber, of which polyester filament accounts for nearly three-quarters of the total.
From the specific production situation, it is not difficult to find that the new production capacity in the polyester filament market is actually mainly concentrated in the hands of the two leading polyester companies, Tongkun Group and Xinfengming. An increase of 1.2 million tons and 600,000 tons.
3. The weaving market is too “bland”, so we will cut down on production when we seize the opportunity
The slowdown in the peak season of the textile market this year has become a fact that cannot be ignored, and the market is indeed too “bland”. Whether it is the nylon series, four-way elastic products, etc. that should be popular this season, or the polyester taffeta, pongee and other products that caused queuing to buy in the past two years, the past rush to buy is gone forever, and overall orders The volume has dropped by nearly 20%-40% year-on-year.
Affected by market orders and market fluctuations, the operating rate of the downstream weaving market has relatively fluctuated greatly since this year. Although the startup rate of various textile clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped significantly, the frequency of switching on and off this year is relatively high; high temperature production reduction, National Day holiday, etc., all have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown measures. This also affects the changes in demand in the upstream market to a certain extent.
Just like the Double Eleven that just passed, many people became “hand-buying parties”!
If the polyester market continues, the profits of PTA manufacturers may also be swallowed up!
Although relying on the vertically integrated industrial layout of PX-PTA-polyester-chemical fiber, leading polyester companies do not have to bet their profits on PTA. They can rely on the industrial chain Make timely adjustments to different actual situations. However, the polyester industry chain is a community after all, and only by complementing each other can we achieve long-term development! </p
