Recently, affected by geopolitical factors, the polyester market has ushered in another wave of “frenzy”: raw material prices have increased, polyester prices have increased, production and sales have exploded…
PTA futures ended last Friday It rebounded after falling, and quickly rose after the opening on the 6th, reaching a high of 5100 points. Boosted by crude oil, the ethylene glycol market also climbed. At the opening of trading on the 6th, the main contract of ethylene glycol futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange directly rose by 100 points. Crude oil fell slightly on the 7th, but as the conflict between the United States and Iran continued to intensify, international oil prices continued to rise on the 8th. In terms of polyester filament, some manufacturers have experienced partial price increases ranging from 50 to 200 yuan for the second consecutive day.
The upstream of the textile market is boiling, and the downstream weaving companies and trading companies are not calm either. The end of the year and the beginning of the year are special nodes. Weaving companies and trading companies are particularly concerned about changes in raw material prices, which are directly related to the issue of stocking raw materials, preparing gray fabrics and spot goods. During a visit to China Silk Capital Network, most companies said they would not stock up on raw materials before the Spring Festival holiday, only about a month’s supply. However, some companies said they would not stock up on raw materials and would still buy and use them as needed. From this we can see that the intensity of stocking up this year is relatively small. The price of polyester yarn this year is the same as in the past two years, and the increase throughout the year is not large. Therefore, weaving manufacturers believe that there is no need to stock up on too many raw materials.
The situation of weaving manufacturers hoarding raw materials is basically a foregone conclusion. However, what is most concerned by the market at present is whether the price of gray fabrics will rise after the year.
In the past few days, trading companies have spoken out to discuss: tensions between the United States and Iran have intensified, crude oil has risen, and whether raw materials will be available after the year Price increase? Will the price of gray cloth increase? Regarding this issue, the person in charge of a trading company believes that the price of raw materials will increase after the year, and the price of gray cloth will also increase, so he has prepared tens of thousands of meters of commonly used gray cloth. The company also undertakes spot whitening, so the prepared gray fabrics can also be used for whitening without fear of becoming inventory.
Some companies believe that the possibility of price increases after the new year is unlikely. The owner of a weaving factory responded: “Raw materials should increase after the new year, but there is a possibility that they will increase again after the 15th day of the first lunar month.” I’m not optimistic about the future raw material prices. Basically, the price of gray fabrics will not increase unless the raw materials rise sharply.”
In previous years, there will be a wave of price increases for raw materials after the new year. This can also be said to be A trick used by chemical fiber factories to boost production and sales. At the beginning of 2019, polyester filament prices generally rose under the strong support of polyester raw material PTA. At the end of February and the beginning of March, orders in the market increased, and there were already queues for silk-like gray fabrics. After the signs of the peak season emerged, with the support of the general increase in polyester yarns, some weaving companies issued notices to increase the price of gray fabrics, with the increase ranging from 0.05 to 0.1 yuan/meter.
01
Weaving manufacturers are eager to get rid of low prices, and the hype is strong
The price of gray fabrics will increase after 2020, and the editor dare not guarantee it. However, there are still many people in the market who believe that the price of gray fabrics will increase after the new year. After all, the market in 2019 was tepid, and the price of gray fabrics was at the lowest level in recent years. Fabric bosses are eager to get rid of this status quo, especially weaving manufacturers. The mentality of speculation may be stronger after the new year. Therefore, the possibility of price increases for gray fabrics after the new year cannot be ruled out.
02
The price of polyester yarn has certain support for the price increase of gray fabrics
On the other hand, the price increase of gray fabric will also depend on the price of polyester yarn. Although polyester yarn prices rose from time to time in 2019, the increase was not large and did not last long. It fell back quickly, so it was difficult for gray fabric prices to rise. According to some weaving manufacturers, when the price of polyester filament rises by more than 500 yuan/ton, most weaving manufacturers will increase the price of gray fabrics. There is also a lag in the price increase of raw materials when reflected in the price increase of gray fabrics. Generally, gray fabrics will not start to rise until raw materials rise significantly and remain at a high level for about a month.
03
Market conditions affect the price fluctuation of gray fabrics
The third point is whether the price of gray fabrics will increase or not. The market conditions are also very important. a factor. Like in 2017 and 2018, the market conditions are hot, supply exceeds demand, and the price of gray fabrics continues to rise, which is completely in the hands of weaving companies. Wanting to rise is like being very willful, but trading companies can only pay the price obediently. Therefore, whether the price of gray fabrics will increase after the new year depends on the market situation after the new year. However, the current inventory of gray fabrics is still at a high level. Even if the market is hot after the year, the possibility of supply exceeding demand again is small, and the market situation will have little impact on the rise of gray fabrics.
Postscript
In summary, The editor believes that judging from the current situation, the rise in gray fabrics after the year will still lack momentum. But it’s not a bad idea if there are traders stocking up. Preparing an appropriate amount of stock is also a routine operation, but due to the uncertainty of the market after the new year, the editor does not recommend stocking up on gray fabrics in large quantities.
</p
