Since the epidemic spread around the world, everyone has been worried about whether the textile market, which is already in dire straits, will continue to have difficulty getting “order support”, leading to market panic.
I never expected that crude oil plummeted, US stocks melted down… Black Monday witnessed a collective plunge in bulk textile commodities, how spectacular!
On the one hand, it is the epidemic that is not over yet, and on the other hand, it is the raw materials that are in danger!
Just imagine, if this epidemic had not happened, raw materials might still be strong. March 2020 should be the busiest season in the textile industry, but everything is just a fantasy. The impact of this epidemic on the industry may still take a while to recover!
The unprecedented challenge of fighting the “epidemic”
The textile people who have experienced this fight against the “epidemic” will probably have some thoughts on this period. The experience was unforgettable.
In late February, Keqiao Textile City and Shengze Oriental Silk Market have opened. Guangzhou Textile Trading Park resumed business on the 9th, which was extended by more than a month compared to previous years.
Even so, the textile people who have experienced this war “epidemic” are still sad about this experience. “The impact of the epidemic on the textile industry this year has been so great that it has exceeded the impact of Sino-US trade on us!” said Mr. Chen, a textile boss.
Indeed, because of the epidemic, the rhythm of the entire industry has been disrupted, and textile bosses have also faced greater challenges:
In the rush to make orders for the new year, production capacity bottlenecks are highlighted
Before the holidays every year, many textile bosses will leave some orders to be made after the beginning of the new year. On the one hand, this is because Years ago, workers in the dyeing factory were homesick and the quality of their orders would be compromised. On the other hand, they wanted to have work to do after the new year and feel more relaxed. However, this year, affected by the epidemic, the factory was stagnant and some orders that were urgently delivered were cancelled. Even if it is not cancelled, textile bosses will seize the time to produce and deliver goods after resuming work.
“Before, the factory couldn’t start work because of the lack of workers. I was so anxious that I only completed a quarter of a big order a year ago. Later, I had to raise wages to recruit people. “If we start the machine first, we are afraid that it will not be delivered on time, which will affect subsequent orders.” said the proprietress of a textile factory.
In addition to production capacity problems, the same is true for printing and dyeing. Mr. Ma, who has been trading in the Wujiang area for more than ten years, said that there is a gap of two months before and after the Spring Festival, resulting in a backlog of orders. The dyeing factory is unable to enter the warehouse due to the lack of workers, let alone issuing cards and proofing. Some dyeing factory salesmen also said that last week the dye vat was only about 50% open, resulting in a longer delivery than the same period.
Spring clothing fabrics have lost the opportunity, and summer clothing fabrics are difficult to break through
A sudden epidemic, Let beauty lovers spend the Spring Festival with a winter coat, which also leads to nowhere to sell new spring clothes.
According to a stall owner who opened a shop in Guangzhou: “Most stalls will complete the lease renewal or lease change before the Spring Festival. Make money by receiving orders from major online stores. I stocked up hundreds of thousands of spring products before the Spring Festival this year. If we don’t resume work, then after the season, these new styles will become inventory and the losses will be serious.”
Clothing stall owners have lost confidence in spring clothes, and it is difficult to sell the goods on hand directly, which also inhibits the purchase of fabrics. It is understood that the imitation silk products in the Wujiang area have been going smoothly recently. Most of them are orders for this summer or autumn. There are very few orders for spring. Compared with the same period in previous years, the number of popular fabrics in the market has also decreased. The overall sales of elastic fabrics have been poor, resulting in market transactions. The investment atmosphere is average.
According to a trader, the price of artificial silk has increased steadily since the beginning of this year. It can probably travel about 20,000 meters per day. However, compared with the daily volume of 40,000 to 60,000 meters last year, March this year was not very busy.
Will the market rebound with retaliation or recover slowly in the second quarter?
Although the finished product inventories of major manufacturers have declined, this is largely due to the slow recovery of production capacity, which has led to better destocking performance. According to China According to the monitoring data of Silkdu.com sample companies, the inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze area dropped from 40 days before the start of construction to about 38 days, which is not as fast as the same period in previous years. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by about 3 days, but the destocking process has begun recently. Slow down, the market is not as good as the previous period.
In terms of operating rate, the current operating rate in Shengze area has returned to about 70-80%. The Haining area is slightly higher at about 80%, while the Changxing area has returned to 60-70%. Market operations have been on the rise recently, and it is expected that market operations will return to the same period in previous years by late March.
On the one hand, the destocking process is slow, and on the other hand, the start-up of looms is still rising. If industry demand cannot recover well, the market will easily enter the overcapacity stage again. Recently, more and more people in the industry have begun to think: In the second quarter, what will happen to the textile industry?”Will it usher in a retaliatory rebound, or will it embark on a slow road to recovery?”
In fact, many textile bosses said during their exchanges with the editor that they are not particularly optimistic about the textile industry in the first half of this year. “Now the epidemic has not fully recovered. Generally, March to May in the first half of the year is the traditional peak season. Every link of the weaving factory and dyeing factory will be busy. However, this year’s new orders are not very sustainable. It is difficult for the market to return to the previous level in the first half of the year. .”
Of course, there are still a few textile bosses who are optimistic about the market outlook. A boss who has been engaged in home textile fabrics for more than ten years combined his experience with SARS at that time and believes that after the epidemic, the market will usher in a recovery period. “The orders canceled now are not real cancellations, but postponements. The rhythm of market orders has been disrupted, but they will still be honored.”
Previously, Academician Zhong Nanshan said that victory is imminent. Come, we are confident that the epidemic will be basically controlled by the end of April! The epidemic that has lasted the entire first quarter is finally coming to an end.
The editor probably guesses that although the market ushered in a rebound after the SARS epidemic in 2003, it seems to still be facing pressure from all aspects in 2020: its own overcapacity problems, Sino-US trade issues, the industry’s own thin profits, etc., so the market does not yet have the conditions to rebound immediately when the epidemic is over.
However, consumers’ basic needs for “food, clothing, housing and transportation” are still there, that is, companies need to go through a painful period of pain before they can return to the bustle of the past!
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