There has always been a saying in the textile industry of “gold, three, silver and four”, but March this year is very different from previous years. The performance of polyester filament Incisively and vividly.
March 2019
Polyester prices increase!
Polyester filament is proud of, Ushering in a wave of price increases, polyester manufacturers have increased their price increases, and it is quite common for the prices of various products to rise by 100-300 yuan/ton.
The production and sales are booming, and they are even closed and reluctant to sell!
Polyester prices generally rise , the downstream market may just need to purchase, or it may be in a “buy up but not down” mentality. The transaction atmosphere in the polyester market has become hot again, and production and sales continue to exceed 100.
March 2020
Polyester prices continue to fall
The price focus of various polyester filament products continues to fall, among which, FDY Product prices fell to around 6,700 yuan/ton, POY product prices fell to around 6,230 yuan/ton, and DTY product prices fell to around 8,150 yuan/ton.
Polyester production and sales continue to be sluggish
Polyester prices continue to fall below the floor price, and downstream demand is insufficient to follow up. Recently, polyester production and sales have continued to be sluggish, remaining at 40% to 60%.
Polyester filament as textile raw material , the rise and fall of prices, and the quality of production and sales can well reflect the current status of the textile industry. As we all know, the current textile market is not good.
The main reason why the textile market is not good is that the new crown epidemic has made it difficult to say that the weaving market is good.
Beginning in January, the COVID-19 epidemic broke out in China, leading to road closures and city closures in many places. After the Spring Festival, the country’s resumption of work was repeatedly delayed. Textile and apparel The same is true for karma. The opening of clothing markets in Hangzhou, Changzhou, Guangzhou and other places continues to be delayed, and spring clothing that should be hot-selling at this time is also being sold out.
Just as the domestic epidemic was gradually under control, foreign epidemics began to break out on a large scale. As of 12:00 on March 15, in addition to China, a total of 73,528 cases have been diagnosed in 147 countries and regions around the world, led by Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Spain. Many countries have begun to close their borders: the United States has announced a travel ban on Europe; Italy has stopped all non-essential commercial activities; Poland has announced a country closure, closing borders and airspace, and suspending international rail connections…
The domestic epidemic has delayed the resumption of work in the textile industry, causing serious losses to orders, deliveries, orders, costs, etc. Now that foreign epidemics have begun to break out again, textile people can’t help but start to worry about domestic sales. It was already very difficult, and now even exporting is very difficult.
A cloth boss who specializes in pongee fabrics said: “Now I don’t know how to take orders. Italy and South Korea are unexpectedly serious, and there are many orders. Everything has stopped. Foreign trade has stopped, and domestic demand has also significantly reduced. The current orders are all from a year ago, and there are many prototypes, but very few have been actually negotiated.”
At the same time, another cloth boss also revealed that due to the outbreak of the epidemic abroad, all orders originally scheduled for Italy have been cancelled.
The weaving market is sluggish, and the demand for the upstream raw material polyester yarn is naturally not good. However, the upstream PTA and polyester yarn themselves are not strong either
PTA lacks upward momentum and prices continue to fall
The recent plunge in crude oil prices has given PTA, which was already unsatisfactory, A heavy blow, and PTA prices plummeted. As of the 13th, the internal price of PTA dropped to about 3,730 yuan/ton, a drop of more than 43% compared with 6,570 yuan/ton at the same time last year.
Not only affected by the plunge in crude oil, PTA prices are difficult to The climb is also hampered by its own high inventories. At present, PTA social inventory is around 2.6 million tons, which is already at a high level in recent years.
PTA market is difficult to rise, and it is difficult to form effective cost support for polyester filament.
Polyester yarn is difficult to destock effectively
Polyester yarn price �The continuous decline is also related to its own high inventory.
From the statistical data of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 32-42 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is up to 26 -32 days, FDY inventory is around 27-33 days, while DTY inventory is around 33-42 days.
If there is no new crown epidemic, in our own “golden country” In the busy season of “three silvers and four”, polyester yarns are still expected to be destocked to stabilize prices. However, now that domestic demand is not strong and external demand is suppressed, polyester yarns will continue to be in inventory for a long time, and the market is unlikely to improve.
Forecast for the market outlook
Recently, crude oil prices have reached historical levels The market has plummeted, and within a week, US stocks have experienced circuit breakers twice. In addition, the epidemic has broken out on a large scale around the world, and the market has increased concerns about the global economy and demand. Saudi Arabia has significantly lowered the price of crude oil and will significantly increase production in April, causing crude oil prices to plummet and PTA costs to collapse.
Domestic demand outlook may stimulate consumption
Currently the most What still affects the market is whether the new epidemic can be effectively controlled. In terms of domestic demand, the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled. Academician Zhong Nanshan expressed confidence that the epidemic will be controlled by the end of April. If the domestic epidemic is basically under control by the end of April, domestic demand and economic development will further increase. Although it is currently difficult for weaving companies to receive orders and go to warehouses, and the clothing market has a lot of goods, there will be stimulating consumption in the market outlook. The return rate of spring clothing is not high, but there may be a concentrated outbreak of autumn and winter clothing. Terminal demand will stimulate upstream weaving and polyester yarn counterattacks.
External demand still faces many obstacles
From the perspective of external demand, Many countries have fallen, and the epicenter of the epidemic has moved to Europe. For foreign trade companies, whether it is due to demand or logistics, foreign trade orders will shrink significantly until the foreign epidemic is not controlled. At least in the first half of the year, it is still difficult to control the foreign epidemic. During this period, converting foreign trade to domestic sales may also be a good way to “survive the crisis”.
In the short term, whether it is from the perspective of downstream weaving, upstream PTA, or polyester yarn itself, the “turnaround battle” for polyester yarn is a bit difficult to win.
A few days ago, the Suzhou Meteorological Observatory “officially announced”: The average temperature in Suzhou in the recent period has reached the spring standard of exceeding 10°C for five consecutive days of sliding average temperature. On March 7, spring officially entered Suzhou. But the spring of the textile industry seems a bit far away…
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