10 days! US stocks circuit breaker 4 times!
The global financial market is wailing. The “Trump-style circuit breaker” + the continued fermentation of the new crown epidemic, coupled with the sharp decline in crude oil, have hit investors who were already on the verge of Collapse of confidence.
Polyester prices have hit bottom again and again
Finance has entered a bear market, and the futures market is not immune to the disaster. Following the plunge in crude oil prices, the polyester market is also in danger. PTA and ethylene glycol lack motivation to rise, and due to insufficient cost support, polyester filament prices have repeatedly hit bottom. As of the 20th, the price of polyester filament FDY products was around 6,400 yuan/ton, POY product prices were around 5,830 yuan/ton, and DTY product prices were around 7,850 yuan/ton.
The price center of polyester filament continues to decline , and even hit a low level in recent years. Compared with the same period in previous years, product prices have fallen by close to 25%–35%.
Polyester prices continue to fall. However, the profit performance is outstanding, especially after the Spring Festival, the profits of various polyester filament products have “rised step by step”, which can even be described as “soaring into the sky”.
In 2019, the performance of FDY products was relatively stable, and it has been in a state of high profitability in the first half of the year. However, starting from October, the profit margin has been shrinking and it has been in a state of loss. After the Spring Festival of 2020, FDY products began to turn losses into profits, and the profit margins continued to expand, even reaching the commanding heights of profitability in more than a year.
POY products, profits have been fluctuating status, but it also suffered losses in the first half of 2019. By the end of last year, it began to turn a profit. After the Spring Festival in 2020, the profit level of POY products continued to increase, once reaching nearly 800 yuan/ton.
In terms of DTY, the profit level has always been lower than POY and FDY, and you will be in a loss dilemma if you are not careful. . Compared with the other two products, the DTY product has always been in a state of unpaid profits. But since the Spring Festival this year, profits have begun to surge, even exceeding 1,000 yuan.
From the above three tables, we can We can clearly see that the profit trend of various polyester filament products has been rising and falling in line with the price trend. However, starting from this extraordinary Spring Festival, profits and prices began to “part ways”: prices kept going downwards. Profits have been rising.
PTA cost support collapse
PTA, as one of the most important raw materials for polyester filament, its price The rise and fall of polyester filament plays a decisive role in the profits of polyester filament.
In the first half of 2019, the price of PTA has been at a high level. It is no exaggeration to say that it is the “king” of the polyester industry chain. However, starting from the second half of the year, PTA It began to fall off the altar, and prices plummeted compared to the first half of the year. Its own high inventory dilemma also makes PTA’s decline not so easy to end. As of now, the internal price of PTA is only around 3,415 yuan/ton, which is close to historical lows.
PTA prices continue to go down, so for polyester filament, the cost surface is loose, and profits will naturally go up.
The height of polyester filament Profit, for polyester manufacturers, is actually not a good thing.
It seems that the profit is very high, but in fact it may not be profitable.
A few years ago, weaving manufacturers would more or less stockpile goods for 2-3 months. However, due to the outbreak of the epidemic, weaving manufacturers have not been able to resume work for a long time. Delayed, the raw materials were not used up. After the resumption of work, except for some manufacturers who just need to purchase, most manufacturers still choose to wait and see. As a result, the production and sales of polyester filament have been relatively sluggish after the resumption of work.
According to statistics from the China Silk City Network, after the resumption of work, polyester has grown rapidly.The average production and sales of � are basically maintained at around 40% to 60%.
The weaving market does not buy it, and finally The main reason is still due to poor demand.
From the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in China to the spread of the epidemic to the world, the collapse of the US stock market and the plunge of crude oil, it has had a great impact on weaving manufacturers. It can be seen from the conversations of many cloth bosses that since the resumption of work, the market situation has been at a low ebb: difficulties in receiving orders, order cancellations, foreign trade emergencies, low prices for gray cloth, shrinking profits, and many cloth bosses have even reduced production due to the lack of machinery. Plan to protect capital. There are also many bosses predicting that the market situation, optimistically speaking, will not be good in the first half of the year. To put it further, it may not be good for the whole year.
The weaving market is sluggish, and the demand for polyester yarn is naturally not good. No matter how high the profit of polyester yarn is, if it cannot be sold, it is just empty talk.
At present, the profit of polyester yarn is already at a relatively high position, but polyester manufacturers are still worried. Such a low price and such a high profit have formed a It created a contradiction and broke the balance point of the industrial chain. The key is that if downstream manufacturers don’t buy it, the road ahead for polyester yarn will not be easy.
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