At 22:00 Beijing time on Thursday, OPEC+ was held as scheduled, and energy ministers from various countries began a closed-door meeting.
After the OPEC+ meeting began, sources said the atmosphere in the talks so far was “very positive.” Senior Russian sources also said that Russia and Saudi Arabia successfully removed the main obstacles to reaching a new production reduction agreement.
CCTV News quoted CNBC as saying that Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached an agreement on oil production reduction, and will uniformly reduce oil production to 20 million barrels per day.
As the OPEC+ meeting proceeds, crude oil prices become more volatile. As of press time, international crude oil futures prices have fallen short-term, with Brent crude oil’s increase narrowing to 1.98%, and WTI crude oil now rising 3.59%, having previously risen by more than 13%.
According to past experience, the increase in polyester raw materials will most likely drive up the price of polyester filament. The increase in the price of polyester filament will drive the recovery of polyester production and sales.
Therefore, the editor predicts that with the preliminary agreement on a new round of crude oil production reduction agreement, polyester production and sales will usher in another round of explosion, but this How long can an outbreak last?
The epidemic spread, and domestic and foreign trade were blocked at the same time
According to real-time statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 5:47 on April 9, Beijing time, the global number of new crown pneumonia cases The cumulative number of confirmed cases of pneumonia exceeded 1.5 million, reaching 1,504,971, and the cumulative number of deaths reached 87,894. The United States has the largest number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the world, with more than 420,000 cases, reaching 424,945, and 14,529 deaths.
In 2019, my country’s textile and apparel exports amounted to US$271.5 billion. When the foreign trade market is hindered by the epidemic, the textile industry will inevitably encounter a worse situation than in 2019. Serious overcapacity problem.
The editor heard something, saying that some foreign businessmen are taking advantage of the current market situation to seize some negligible defects on some fabrics. , demanding payment at a 20% discount or returning the goods, but the fabric companies had no choice but to swallow their anger and accept this obviously unreasonable request in order to ship the goods. For some fabric companies, under the current market conditions, as long as they can successfully ship goods and complete orders, they will accept even a small loss.
While foreign trade is subject to huge restrictions, domestic trade has not fully recovered. When the editor visited the market, he found that the number of domestic trade orders has not increased since the beginning of the new year. Currently, the number of transactions Most of the orders have been confirmed years ago, and the number of new orders is pitiful. Spring and summer fabrics have almost come to a standstill. Some fabric manufacturers are already preparing to sell spring fabrics in stock as autumn fabrics.
Insufficient demand, weaving companies reduce operations
With domestic and foreign trade blocked, weaving companies have been under tremendous pressure.
In terms of gray fabric inventory, the current gray fabric weaving inventory in Shengze area is about 41-42 days. Market orders have not improved and there will continue to be an upward trend in the future.
Under the pressure of huge gray cloth inventory, the decline in Starting work has become the choice of most weaving companies. In current weaving enterprises, second shifts are no longer common, replaced by third and fourth shifts. As time goes by, if the order situation still does not improve, the suspension of production is already in the company’s plan.
It can also be seen from the production capacity of weaving enterprises that according to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, after late March, the loom start-up rate of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has not increased. On the contrary, it dropped to 72% on April 3, while the activation rate in the same period last year was close to 90%.
As the operating rate of weaving companies continues to decline, it is unknown how much money weaving companies can spend to purchase raw materials.
Beginning on April 2, as crude oil prices rebounded from lows and polyester raw materials rose, polyester production and sales experienced a rare “three consecutive positives”. In this wave of market conditions, some people who purchase raw materialsThey are well-run companies, some are companies with more radical strategies, and some are raw material traders buying the bottom. However, for some companies with more conservative business strategies, they have not actually carried out large-scale replenishment, and still maintain the original buy-and-use strategy.
If the price of polyester raw materials rises in the future driven by crude oil, although it may drive some weaving companies to purchase raw materials in a short period of time, causing a wave of production and sales peaks, But in the long run, this trend is difficult to continue for a long time.
On the one hand, many weaving companies that are willing to replenish goods have replenished goods during the round of rising polyester prices that started on April 2, but there is no replenishment. Most of them are companies with relatively conservative business strategies; on the other hand, when domestic and foreign trade have been greatly affected and future orders have not yet been secured, weaving companies’ enthusiasm for buying raw materials will also be affected.
Editor’s note:
The “drama” of crude oil production reduction has finally come to an end, and crude oil prices have finally got rid of the haze of the “price war” and begun to recover. However, as the global epidemic continues to spread, Under the circumstances, the world’s demand for crude oil has plummeted, and it is difficult for crude oil prices to return to US$50 in a short period of time.
For the polyester industry chain, the rise in crude oil may bring about a short-term market trend, but with the spread of the epidemic, terminal demand has been greatly suppressed. Under such circumstances, it is still unknown how long this wave of market conditions can last.
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