In the past few months, in addition to paying attention to orders, startups, holidays, etc., the upstream raw material market has also attracted much attention, especially the recent decline in polyester filament, which has affected the nerves of textile people.
Today, let’s take stock of the polyester market situation from January to April.
As the international crude oil market experienced a roller coaster ride of sharp rises and falls, the polyester market also suffered a huge shock. From PTA, ethylene glycol to raw material polyester filament, both prices and profits have declined to varying degrees from January to April, and the decline has been expanding.
PTA Market
Price
As the former “big boss” in the polyester market “In the past few years, PTA could be said to be the most powerful player, with profits devouring the entire industry chain. However, starting last year, due to the drag on downstream demand and its own high inventory dilemma, PTA began to decline, and the price continued to bottom out, once close to the 3,000 yuan mark. As of April 30, the internal price of PTA was around 3,220 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 1,625 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the year, a decrease of 33.54%.
Profit
Affected by the plunge in crude oil, PTA’s internal price also fluctuated violently. In terms of profits, it follows the constant fluctuations of internal prices. As of April 30, PTA’s profit was around 238 yuan/ton, which has turned a profit compared to the beginning of the year.
Although PTA’s current profits have improved significantly compared with some time ago and have escaped from the loss dilemma, the gap is still very large compared with the profit of nearly 1,800 yuan in July last year.
Inventory
Since 2018, PTA’s social inventory has been at 150 Floating below 10,000 tons. However, starting from February this year, due to the impact of the epidemic, the start-up of the downstream polyester and weaving markets was delayed, and the demand for PTA was insufficient, causing PTA to enter the inventory accumulation stage. Especially in March, PTA social inventory reached a high level in recent years – around 2.63 million tons, and then began to fluctuate in a range. As of the end of April, PTA social stocks were around 2.44 million tons. Judging from the current market conditions, the probability that PTA will continue to run out of inventory is still very high.
Ethylene Glycol Market
Price
Since the second half of last year, the market for ethylene glycol has bucked the trend and has risen, with the internal price exceeding PTA in one fell swoop. Although the decline is not as sharp as that of PTA, the market has been fluctuating due to the influence of crude oil and has been under obvious pressure. In terms of price, as of April 30, the internal price of ethylene glycol was around 3,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,535 yuan/ton, or 30.76%, compared with the beginning of the year.
Profit
In terms of profit, as a relatively niche product, its profit The capabilities and level of losses are not as good as PTA. As of the end of April, the profit margin of ethylene glycol reached 108 yuan/ton. Compared with the beginning of the year, the profit margin has expanded significantly.
Inventory
Last year, the ethylene glycol market experienced a big reversal, and the most important thing was Thanks to its obvious destocking effect, spot prices have been driven up. Since the beginning of this year, the inventory of the downstream polyester market has been high, and the demand for polyester raw materials has decreased sharply, causing ethylene glycol inventory to also begin to accumulate. As of the end of April, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China was around 1.17 million tons. Ethylene glycol arrivals at the port during the May Day period are still concentrated, and the port accumulation is expected to be high. In the later period, we still need to pay attention to the trend of the polyester market and crude oil.
Polyester filament market
Polyester filament The market can be said to be bleak. It is difficult to find orders in the weaving market, the operating rate has dropped significantly, and the demand for polyester filament has dropped sharply, making it difficult for production and sales to improve. Amid the negative effects of sluggish demand, the price of polyester filament has been falling, with a significant degree of decline.
Recently, some specifications of pongee and polyester taffeta have been selling well in the market, which has led to a wave of sales in the market. Of course, there is some speculation in this, but it has led to a wave of “Little Indian Spring” in polyester prices. Some product specifications of polyester filament have increased to varying degrees in recent days, but when the market heat subsides, the probability of continued decline is still relatively high.
Price
Looking at the price of polyester filament from January to April The level of decline is disappointing. As of April 30, the price of polyester filament FDY 150D was around 5,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 1,950 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, a decrease of nearly 26%;The price of polyester filament POY 150D is around 4,985 yuan/ton, a drop of around 2,115 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, a decrease of nearly 30%; the price of polyester filament DTY 150D is around 6,750 yuan/ton, a drop of around 2,100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year. , a decrease of about 2,100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, a decrease of nearly 24%.
Profit
Profit situation of polyester filament since January to April There are also violent fluctuations, and the profit trends of the three products FDY, POY, and DTY are basically consistent. From January to March, the profit performance of polyester filament was outstanding, especially for DTY products. The profit margin in March exceeded 1,000 yuan. Subsequently, the prices of upstream PTA and MEG continued to fall. As costs collapsed, the profits of various polyester filament products shrank to varying degrees.
As of April 30, the profits of individual polyester filament products have gone up and down. Among them, the profit margin of FDY products is around 151 yuan/ton, POY products have lost money to around 109 yuan/ton, and DTY products have lost money to around 109 yuan/ton. Profits were also diluted, with losses reaching around 44 yuan/ton.
Affected by the new crown epidemic, the upstream and downstream polyester industry chains basically ended in dismal results in the first four months. Whether it is PTA, ethylene glycol or polyester filament, terminal demand is the most direct positive factor. But what can be seen at present is that the epidemic is still spreading, and the conventional products in the textile market are still difficult to continue to shine. It is difficult for “Red May” to come. Later, with the advent of its traditional off-season, the market became even more difficult to improve. There is a high probability that the polyester market will still be under pressure. </p
