A good closing before the holiday, a good start after the holiday, polyester filament prices are rising! price! Got it!
The international oil price in April has been riding a “roller coaster”. It is not surprising that it rose or fell by more than 20% in a day:
In the early morning of April 29, Beijing time, an oil tanker exploded in the northern Syrian city of Afrin, killing at least 10 people. This triggered a surge in international crude oil, which led to an overall rise in polyester raw materials, which also promoted the Chemical fiber manufacturers are enthusiastic about raising prices before the holiday.
As of April 30, the price quoted by mainstream manufacturers of POY75D/36F is 5000-5100 yuan / ton, while FDY50D/24F products are quoted at around 6500-6600 yuan / ton.
In May, the OPEC+ production reduction agreement officially entered the implementation period, and oil prices skyrocketed again.
According to the agreement, OPEC+ will reduce crude oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day from May to June. Boosted by this, international oil prices opened lower and moved higher on the 4th. The June contract of U.S. crude oil futures closed at US$20.39 per barrel, an increase of 3.08%; the July contract of ICE Brent crude oil futures closed at US$27.20 per barrel, an increase of 2.87%.
Boosted by this news, and coupled with the easing of the epidemic in Europe, some The country will reopen the market, and polyester filament manufacturers can’t help it, and some manufacturers’ quotations have also begun to rise:
It is reported that on the 5th, polyester filament prices generally rose by 50% -150 yuan/ton!
This has confused the textile boss who is still on vacation. It is not that the market price is not good as promised. Okay, the inventory pressure is high, can’t raw materials increase? Why did this wave of price increases come so unexpectedly!
During May Day, construction starts in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 30-40%!
Entering the second quarter, most textile companies are complaining due to reduced orders. The owner of a textile factory in Zhejiang even said that since the start of work, only 20% of the machines have been operated. “Our orders have dropped by at least 40% this spring, and we have a seven-day holiday this May Day.”
The extreme pressure brought about by the epidemic has made textile bosses The pressure is high, and because of this, after experiencing the longest winter holiday in history, textile workers are ushering in the longest May Day holiday in history. The market operating rate has also dropped to a low level. Many companies that rarely take holidays in previous years have also chosen I have a holiday at this time.
As of the end of April, the start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been reduced, of which Changshu warp knitting is about 40%; Xiaoshao circular knitting is about 30%; Haining warp knitting is about 60% , the water spray rate in Shengze and Changxing is about 60%, which is expected to be in accordance with the plans of factories in various places.
On this May Day, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to about 30%, and the texturing rate has dropped to about 40%. Most manufacturers have shutdown plans ranging from 3 to 10 days. .
For textile bosses this year, load reductions and holidays from time to time have become the norm. In addition to the entire market suffering from “lack of orders” due to the epidemic, raw material prices have also Extreme instability is also an important reason.
It is also pre-holiday stocking, but this time the stocking intensity is obviously average!
Familiar painting style:
On April 2, crude oil bulls suddenly broke out, and the U.S. oil market briefly It rose by more than 30%, and cloth oil once rose by more than 45%. Driven by international oil prices, polyester raw material prices also began to rebound. Under this boost, the price of polyester filament increased by 500-700 yuan/ton.
This has also driven a wave of downstream operations, with production and sales continuing to be hot, with some promotional factories selling as high as 200-300%. Although this wave of market conditions only lasted for about 3 days, more or less downstream people have stocked up on raw materials, and the stocking cycle has increased from 7 days in the early stage to about 15 days. Polyester manufacturers also took advantage of this to reduce their inventory.
However, the recent market performance is average. Even if there are rumors in the weaving market that some specifications of polyester taffeta and pongee fabrics have “super large orders” in the market, it will not stimulate downstream enthusiasm for replenishment. Except for a few weaving and texturing companies that have immediate needs and have replenishment operations, most manufacturers still choose to sit back and watch and replenish goods on demand. Their stocking cycle has always been about 7-10 days.
“Recently, our orders for anti-static fabrics are relatively stable and can be completed until late May. However, we will not purchase more raw materials in advance because the prices of raw materials are unstable.” Wujiang area A person in charge of a textile company said.
In the early days, everyone was still full of confidence in bargain hunting for raw materials, believing that there had never been a floor price lower than 5,000 yuan. However, the reality is cruel. As raw material prices continue to fall, resulting in Market participants have lost confidence in raw materials and have become more cautious in purchasing. In addition, the world has not yet found an effective treatment for the epidemic.Due to the slow recovery of economic activities, this year’s competition for funds and strength has become more intense.
Long and short Intertwined, the upstream and downstream game will become more intense in May!
As we enter May, the market is still supportive. After all, the production cuts of oil producers and the joint production cuts of OPEC+, coupled with the partial recovery of oil demand, have released short-term benefits for international crude oil as the most upstream of the industrial chain, which has provided certain support for the prices of polyester raw materials and even polyester filament.
However, judging from the implementation rate of production cuts, member countries still fall short of the standards. If this status quo is not broken, the current situation of severe excess supply and demand of crude oil will be difficult to alleviate, and oil prices will rise and fall. There are still certain variables.
In addition, judging from the current market feedback, if the price of polyester filament yarn is to continue to rise, either the terminal clothing demand will improve, or the upstream support force will be strong enough. Although the polyester filament market is highly concentrated, the market can never escape the “supply and demand relationship”. Therefore, the upside potential is limited by the recovery of the weaving and texturing industries. However, judging from the current situation, it will take time for the general environment to change.
Of course, there is not much room for the price of polyester filament to fall in the short term. After all, after a long period of price decline, polyester filament has fallen to a very low position, coupled with its own inventory pressure. It is not strong either, but has a strong intention to support the price or increase the price.
In any case, the market entering May will enter the upstream and downstream game stage, and it remains to be seen who will win and who will lose!
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