Since May Day, polyester raw materials seem to have regained their vitality and begun to rise sharply.
In just two weeks from April 29 to May 8, the external price of PX increased by $42/ton, and the internal price of PTA increased by $180 Yuan/ton, while the internal price of ethylene glycol also increased by 85 Yuan/ton.
Polyester filament prices have also increased significantly. The price increases of polyester FDY, POY, and DTY specifications range from 100-600. RMB/ton range.
The direct reason for the surge in polyester raw materials is the surge in international oil prices. But in the final analysis, it is because there are expectations of demand recovery both at home and abroad, which has injected a lot of confidence into the market.
“Two blooms” at home and abroad
Domestically, indoor closed entertainment venues are gradually opening up.
On May 8, the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council in response to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic issued guidance on normalizing the prevention and control of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. The opinion stated that on the premise of implementing prevention and control measures, reservations, traffic restrictions, etc. can be adopted to open parks, tourist attractions, sports venues, libraries, museums, art galleries and other indoor venues, as well as closed entertainment and leisure venues such as theaters and entertainment halls. The venue can host various necessary meetings, exhibitions, etc. The recovery of the offline market can be foreseen.
Foreignly, European and American countries have resumed work in the near future. Produce.
In late April, dozens of states in the United States successively introduced work resumption plans. Georgia, South Carolina, Texas, etc. have taken the lead in allowing some non-essential stores to resume operations. . For example, Georgia recently announced that gyms, barber shops, bowling alleys, etc. can open while adhering to social distancing guidelines.
The German government stated that from April 20, small shops, hardware stores, etc. will be allowed to open. On May 4, zoos, museums, hairdressers and some schools reopened. But large-scale events still have to wait until after August 31. France will gradually lift blockade restrictions from May 11. Italy announced that it will enter the second stage of the epidemic from May 4 and begin to relax some control measures. It will fight the epidemic and restore the economy in parallel.
Whether it is domestic or foreign, market demand seems to be There are signs of recovery, but what is the real situation? The editor will talk about some of the situations I learned.
Foreign trade: orders are polarized, and we still need to wait and see in the future
After European and American countries began to resume work and production, some cloth bosses did express optimism about the next market situation.
Manager Gu, who specializes in gabardine and plain weave, said: “We mainly make some workwear fabrics. Recently, the number of foreign orders has indeed increased. With the recovery situation in mind, we have recently received several orders from Japan, Spain, Portugal and other countries. I believe that as the resumption of work abroad intensifies, the number of orders will become better and better.”
But the increase in the number of orders is only the feeling of some Bu bosses. Not all foreign trade companies believe that the market will recover in the future.
Manager Wang, the person in charge of a company specializing in textile foreign trade, said: “We all said that last year’s market was not good, 50% worse than the year before, so this year’s The market situation is worse than last year, and the number of orders is only 10%-20% of last year. Although foreign countries have said that they will resume work during this period, there has been no improvement in orders. What was before is still the same now.”
Many cloth owners pessimistically believe that although Europe and the United States have begun to unblock, it is difficult for clothing demand to pick up all at once. After all, you can’t live without clothes, but a piece of clothing can last for several years.
Domestic trade: Online orders have become the mainstream, cautiously optimistic about price increases
Due to the domestic epidemic control, It is much better than abroad, and the situation in domestic trade is better than abroad.
On the one hand, online clothing shopping has become the main sales method of clothing at this stage. During the epidemic, the physical manufacturing industry was in a state of decline. In contrast, the Internet industry was booming. Online shopping and live broadcasting have become new choices for many people today.
Manager Hong, a trader, said: “Starting from the resumption of work this year,�Now, the number of traditional fabric orders has been sharply compressed, while online orders have begun to rise. Compared with traditional orders, online store orders are characterized by small batches and multiple batches. The profit of each order is not high, relying on the accumulation of small amounts to make more. However, in this year’s market situation, it’s good to have orders to make, and it doesn’t matter so much. ”
In addition, a lot of good news has been released, plus The rise in raw material prices has also made some traders feel “restless”. They have become more cautious because they have had the bad experience of “buying at the bottom and halfway up the mountain”.
A trader, Mr. Fang, started to stock up on gray fabrics. He said: “The price of gray fabrics on the market is already very low. Although there are no real orders yet, there are indeed many inquiries. Now, I won’t rule out buying a batch of fabrics and hoarding them in the future. However, I thought the market was going to improve and I stocked up on a batch of fabrics, but I haven’t sold them yet, so I still need to think about it. ”
“Being excited but not taking action” is a common phenomenon in today’s market. This has led to the fact that there is still no fundamental improvement in the order situation in the market today. After May Day, the editor conducted a survey on the recent orders received by textile companies, with nearly 200 companies participating. The final results showed that, Only 16% of companies feel that the market has improved recently, but 40% of companies believe that there have been fewer orders recently, and 44% of companies believe that the order situation is similar to the previous period.
Editor’s note
Recently, there has been a lot of good news in both domestic and foreign trade. However, Because he had suffered too many losses before, Boss Bu could not judge whether the turning point of the market had really arrived. Judging from the current situation, only some companies have actually received actual orders, while other traders were “ready to make a move” but failed. I dare not make up my mind to stock up. However, facing the current situation, the editor still says the same thing: Under the current market situation, for textile companies, survival is the most important thing!
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