A friend told the editor: The current textile market is sensitive. A piece of news can light a fire, or it may extinguish the flame that was finally ignited. The market fluctuations are still relatively large!
Indeed, looking back on the past, major events happened every month:
In March, foreign epidemics broke out, and foreign trade orders They were canceled and postponed one after another, and foreign trade activities were directly “suspended”;
In late April, it was reported that polyester taffeta and polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester polyester fabrics could be used for civilian protective clothing. At one time, there were orders of millions or tens of millions of meters in the market. After the order was issued, the inventory of some specifications was emptied;
In May, with the sharp increase in international crude oil, polyester filament has also followed suit and raised prices. In particular, some specifications of FDY have increased by more than 1,000 yuan, stimulating the entry of intermediary traders. After stocking up on goods, the domestic trade market finally showed signs of warmth.
Crude oil exceeded the 30 mark, and bulk textile raw materials rose across the board
In May, international oil prices continued to rise. WTI June futures rose by more than 7% in intraday trading on the 18th, at US$31.62 per barrel. The international oil price stood at the US$30 mark, which also provided a strong boost to the polyester market. In addition, last week, texturing and weaving manufacturers moderately replenished their positions, and some polyester filament production and sales increased. The average inventory of polyester manufacturers dropped to 29 days, a decrease of about 5 days from the end of April, and the price also generally increased by 200-500 compared with before the holiday. Yuan / ton. In addition, other products also experienced certain increases.
There are more orders, and the startup situation is better than at the end of April!
Entering the second quarter, due to the concentrated cancellation and delay of early orders, resulting in a continued lack of market orders, manufacturers’ gray fabric inventories once triggered a warning line, especially for peripheral manufacturers, due to their high production capacity. Inventory pressure is even greater, causing most weaving manufacturers to significantly weaken their enthusiasm for production. During the May Day holiday, they have at least 5 days of holidays, and some manufacturers even have 7-10 days of holidays.
With the end of the holiday, major cluster manufacturers have resumed production one after another. However, what is different from the situation surveyed before the holiday is that many manufacturers have returned from the May Day holiday. The reopening rate has been increased, and some companies are even operating at full capacity.
It is reported that the current water spray activation rate in Shengze and Changxing areas has increased to around 70-80%, the Xiaoshao circular knitting activation rate is around 50%, and the warp knitting activation rate is also around 70%, which is relatively high. At the end of April, the market operating rate generally increased by about 10%.
“Recently, the operation of our factory has been better than before. Before, 35 looms were stopped, and now 20 are in operation. The rest depends on the market. If it gets better in the future, We are going to start all of them!” said a textile boss with nearly 300 looms.
Another weaving factory owner also said that after returning from the holiday, the downstream purchase and price inquiries were significantly better than in the previous period. Seeing that the market is promising and raw materials are at a low level, he will The machine is running at full capacity, whereas before it had been running at 80% capacity.
The market is heating up, and there are The manufacturer says it ships goods every day!
Compared with April when textile bosses were drinking tea leisurely and panicking, in May, many cloth bosses started to get busy. “Our orders have improved a lot recently. We mainly make four-sided bullets. Recently, the market orders have increased significantly, such as 100D plain four-sided bullets. Basically, there is a truckload every day, about 80,000 to 90,000 meters!” One owner owns 300 units. Mr. Chen, the textile boss of the loom, said.
In addition, the recent sales of summer clothing fabrics are also better than in the previous period. Some manufacturers It said hundreds of thousands of meters of orders had been shipped after the holidays. In the early stage, due to the lack of domestic and foreign trade orders, the inventory of manufacturers of imitation silk fabrics increased significantly. As the domestic trade market gradually recovered, the sales of imitation silk in the market were boosted. Some products even caused a wave of market demand due to tight supply. , among which last year’s best-selling product, matte SPH, stood out. The manufacturer said that downstream demand was good, the market popularity was obviously better than other products, and the price was also rising steadily.
It is a fact that the atmosphere in the domestic trade market has improved, and most people in the industry are more concerned about the foreign trade market. . At present, I heard that the foreign trade market is also “warming”.
The general manager of a textile enterprise said that foreign trade orders have been recovering recently, and the number of customers asking for prices has increased significantly. He also improved production in the second quarter compared with the first quarter.
“The European market will also restart in the near future, and our customers will resume work, so we will receive more new orders by then. Compared with the same period last year, our orders have shrunk. 50%, but the dark times will eventually pass, and orders will come back.”
Of course, under the optimistic appearance, there is a key factor that cannot be ignored – the Sino-US trade war.
On May 4th and 8th, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced the 27th and 27th tariffs on US$200 billion and US$300 billion of Chinese products respectively.28 batches of product exclusion list. On the 12th, USTR announced the extension of the validity period of the fourth batch of goods in the exclusion list (targeting US$34 billion in tariffs). From the 14th, some goods will resume tariffs.
This batch of lists has been officially implemented since July 6, 2018, with an additional tax rate of 25%; the fourth exclusion was made on May 14, 2019, and the validity period remains unchanged. Set to expire on May 14, 2020. This announcement decided to extend the exclusion period for some products from December 31, 2020, and resume tariff increases on 27 items.
On May 14, Trump was interviewed by Fox TV When asked in an interview how to “deal with China”, he could actually blurt out “cut off the entire relationship”!
The COVID-19 epidemic has renewed tensions in Sino-US trade relations and heightened friction. Although the current list does not have any impact on the textile and apparel industry, it also proves that the Sino-US trade friction has not ended. With the US election in the second half of the year, there will be greater uncertainty. This will have a negative impact on the foreign trade industry that is already eager to recover. In terms of the market, it will definitely be a big bomb.
However, fortunately, domestic textile and foreign trade bosses who have experienced more than a year of trade war have taken corresponding measures. Reduce the proportion of US customers and, on the other hand, explore emerging markets. Regarding the next textile market, most textile people are still moving forward with anxiety. “Although the traditional off-season in June is coming soon, we should always look forward to May!” said a textile boss.
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