Recently, PTA and polyester have become popular again!
As of the 24th, PTA’s weekly average operating rate was concentrated at 81.1%, an increase of 2.8% from last week; the real-time operating rate was 81.1%, and the real-time effective operating rate 86.4%. In terms of polyester, as of the 24th, the average load of polyester was concentrated at 91.6%, an increase of 1.4% from last week.
When the entire textile industry chain enters the off-season, PTA However, the load on polyester and polyester has increased again, especially for PTA. The speed of production capacity increase is even more obvious. In addition to the “an arrow has to be fired when the device is put into production”, there is also a very important reason, that is, the PTA market is still profitable.
As can be seen from the table below, the internal price of PTA has been difficult to break through recently and continues to hover around 3,500 yuan/ton. However, compared with before April, the cash flow It has always been profitable. Although the profit margin has been fluctuating, compared with the polyester products that have fallen into losses, it is much better and still profitable. Therefore, even though it has entered the traditional off-season, PTA manufacturers still have the courage to increase their burden.
As for polyester, it is due to the early production reduction. Or the restart of some large equipment in the parking company, coupled with the commissioning of two new equipment, the polyester load can be increased. Among them, the polyester filament load increased to about 81%.
So, PTA and polyester What impact will it have if the burden is raised at the same time?
The most obvious one is the inventory problem
Recently, both PTA and polyester manufacturers are in a state where it is difficult to remove inventory and easy to accumulate inventory.
In terms of PTA, currently, PTA’s socially tradable inventory has reached a new high, reaching around 2.5 million tons. In the later stage, PTA still has plans to put multiple units into production, and the inventory is likely to rise.
In terms of polyester, judging from the statistics of China Silk Capital Network, now Today, the overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 29-39 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 9-15 days, FDY inventory is around 20-27 days, and DTY inventory is around 29-39 days. The inventory itself is already at a very high level during the year. Now that the load of the polyester factory is increasing, and it is difficult to increase production and sales, the inventory will inevitably rise again.
Polyester inventory is high, production and sales are not up to par To an equilibrium position, the demand for polyester raw material PTA will naturally decrease, which will have a reaction on PTA inventory. A vicious cycle will form between PTA and polyester.
Price is a direct feedback of inventory
Since the second half of last year, whether it is PTA Still for polyester products, prices have been in a downward trend. The internal price of PTA is currently around 3,490 yuan/ton, the price of polyester filament FDY150D is around 5,455 yuan/ton, the price of POY150D is around 4,950 yuan/ton, and the price of DTY150D is around 6,450 yuan/ton. tons nearby.
Judging from the current prices, PTA and polyester The prices of all filament products are at low levels, and the previous measures to limit production and protect prices of polyester filament do not seem to have much effect. Now that the production capacity has been increased, and polyester equipment is also expected to be put into production in the later period, it will undoubtedly give a heavier blow to prices in a short period of time.
Of course, for the polyester market and PTA market, crude oil and its own fundamental factors are very important that can affect their market trends. Downstream Needs are equally important.
However, according to the current situation of the weaving market, it cannot provide support for the demand for PTA and polyester products.
It is understood that the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles nationwide in June was 105.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the same period last year. The total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles were 512 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.6% compared with the same period. However, the export situation in terminal areas such as clothing, home textiles, shoes, and hats is not optimistic.
With the double drop in domestic and foreign trade orders, enterprises in downstream weaving and other fields are increasingly willing to reduce production, reduce burdens, and take holidays. The texturing, weaving, and printing and dyeing industries have It is said that some companies have plans to take vacations. At the same time, some weaving, printing and dyeing companies in Zhejiang have started summer vacation mode. These have further intensified the contradiction between supply and demand of textile raw materials such as polyester filament.
The upstream market is still “playing with fire”;Downstream weaving and clothing can no longer withstand the situation. In the later period, if the contradiction between supply and demand is still not well balanced, one link will easily collapse. When large upstream enterprises continue to expand their layout, the downstream market is naturally the one that is diluted, and it is easy for the drama of “big fish to eat small fish, and small fish to eat shrimps” to occur. However, the textile industry chain has always been about “both prosperity and loss”. No matter it is upstream or downstream, a balance point must be found in the end.
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