The recent “bloody storm” in the market:
On Tuesday (September 8), US stocks plummeted! Oil prices plummet! Crude oil prices plummeted on Tuesday, with U.S. WTI light crude oil futures falling more than 7.5% to $36.76, and Brent crude oil futures falling below $40 for the first time since June, at $39.78.
On Wednesday (September 9), the overnight plunge in crude oil drove the price of polyester raw materials to fall. Among them, the main 2101 contract of PTA futures closed at 3,636 yuan/ton, which was a decrease from the settlement price on the previous trading day. The main 2101 contract of ethylene glycol futures closed at 3,984 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton or 1.61% compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day.
A piece of green, No wonder many market participants refer to Wednesday (September 9) as “Lei” month and “Lei” day. This can be said to be a “good news” for bulk textile raw materials that have just boarded the “price increase train” and are about to leave. Bolt from the blue!
On Thursday (September 10), a small number of polyester filament manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang lowered their quotations. For example, FDY, a major mainstream manufacturer in Shaoxing, fell by 100; Shengze The POY of polyester yarn from a major major manufacturer was lowered; the quotation price of a polyester yarn in Xiaoshan dropped by 200.
At the end of August, after another major manufacturer’s promotion, polyester yarn Filament manufacturers have once again experienced production and sales exceeding 100, and inventories have also declined slightly. However, since September, the polyester filament market has been tepid, and production and sales have only remained at around 70-80%, which is not outstanding.
The market has gradually fallen into the embarrassing situation of “no promotion, no sales”, but in fact most Textile people are also accustomed to this model. Raw material factories hold promotions every ten and a half months, and downstream follow up slightly to buy points. The price difference is generally not very large. After all, in this market situation, there are fewer and fewer gamblers. Everyone is moving forward cautiously.
Although crude oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, due to the bearish outlook on the market outlook, the overall performance of bulk textile raw materials is average. For weaving factory owners, , also panicked!
The value of the cloth has been devalued before it even gets off the plane!
According to Understand that most weaving manufacturers currently have raw material inventories of about 15-20 days, which is almost the price in late August, which is higher than the current raw material price. That is to say, if the price of polyester filament falls again with the drop in crude oil prices, weaving factories will The current inventory of raw materials will undoubtedly be devalued.
For those who have already held For the weaving manufacturers who produce minimal profits, this is undoubtedly “making matters worse”.
Since this year, the sales of conventional chemical fiber fabrics have not been easy. Take polyester taffeta and pongee as an example. Except for some varieties of polyester taffeta and pongee that did well in the market in May due to epidemic prevention clothing fabrics, the market has been in a stalemate.
In mid-August, the sales of seasonal autumn and winter fabrics such as imitation memory, four-way elastic, T400, and T800 on the market are gradually improving, and the market is selling smoothly. As cold-proof clothing fabrics in previous years The sales of the Three Musketeers’ “polyester taffeta, pongee, and nylon” products have been mediocre. Most manufacturers said that production and sales cannot be balanced, and inventories are still rising.
It is reported that the current inventory of gray fabrics of Bailaitai loom manufacturers is 2 months or more, which means that their products have no pricing power in the market. This shows that the “low price” situation will be difficult to improve in September.
“Recently we have received some orders for pongee at low prices, and now the profits are very low.” A person who specializes in the production of polyester taffeta and pongee The manufacturer said, “The raw materials we purchased before were more expensive than the current raw materials. There was no profit in the first place. The customer is still lowering the price and there is nothing we can do.”
It can be seen that the price of raw materials Although the decline will alleviate the current raw material costs of downstream manufacturers to a certain extent, for gray fabrics that are already in production, they have undoubtedly been devalued before they come off the machine. One boss even complained that he was quite satisfied with the few cents profit he could make per meter of fabric, and most of them would sell at a loss.
The shadow of the “second outbreak” is hard to dissipate, exit The degree of recovery is a mystery!
As for the raw material market, it is also driven by international crude oil in many cases. The current tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the fundamentals of the oil market is still continuing. One of the main reasons is that the COVID-19 epidemic continues, which has led to a lack of confidence in the recovery of the global economy. In particular, the U.S. stock market has fallen sharply from its historical highs, exacerbating the market’s concerns about the economic recovery in the future.
After all, as early as the second quarter, experts warned that the new crown epidemic is likely to break out in the autumn. Nowadays, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 continues to rise around the world, according to Johns Hopkins University in the United States.According to data from Princeton University, as of 7:56 on the 8th, Beijing time, there were more than 27.23 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide. The United States is the country with the largest number of cumulative confirmed cases and cumulative deaths in the world, with about 6.3 million confirmed cases. India surpassed Brazil with 4.2 million cases.
Although there are reports of successful vaccine development in the market, the performance is still average in terms of the current economic recovery of various countries. This also inhibits the recovery of domestic textile and apparel exports.
“At present, our overseas orders have only recovered about 50%, and it is estimated that it will be difficult to achieve a big performance this year.” A trader in home textile fabrics said. Judging from the current order receipts in the foreign trade market, orders for clothing fabrics in autumn and winter have not been well developed. Although the current proofing and staking are better than in June and July, the actual orders are still average.
“The price comparison between customers this year is very powerful. For the same fabric, I sometimes receive price inquiries from three different domestic traders. It can be seen that in this market situation, everyone When shopping around, don’t dare to make a move easily.” Another textile boss who makes unconventional linings said.
In addition, this year many major foreign brands are paying more attention to the management of their suppliers. Only companies that are in the supplier list are qualified to quote and provide samples. This will also affect many companies. The boss of the foreign trade business blocked the door.
Editor 语
September of this year was a mixture of joy and sorrow for textile workers, but their worries about the market outlook have not dissipated at all. Nowadays, the raw material market is also experiencing violent fluctuations, and it is difficult for weaving factories to seize the right opportunity to avoid the profit dilution caused by raw materials. Fortunately, the market is still recovering slowly. Although the pace is slow, with the e-commerce season, Christmas season and other urgent needs breaking out after October, the market still has certain expectations!
</p
