Last week, international oil prices fell sharply, and downstream polyester products also fell. Due to the lag, polyester prices only fell slightly by 100-200 yuan/ton. The drop in the price of chemical fiber raw materials has made Bu Boss relieved, but the recent decline in the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has made Bu Boss worried again.
On November 4, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar continued to fall after the opening, falling below the 6.69 and 6.70 levels one after another. At the same time, the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar fluctuated downwards. , fell below the 6.71 mark. The sharp fall in the RMB exchange rate has given the textile foreign trade people who are still immersed in the “Silver Ten” peak season a basin of cold water, from head to toe!
The RMB exchange rate fell, and foreign trade orders encountered obstacles again
Recently, the editor saw a foreign trade boss working in the textile industry In the group, he asked about the settlement of foreign exchange in US dollars. Looking at the plummeting exchange rate, he hesitated whether to settle the exchange in time or continue to open the account and wait. But Mr. Bu failed to give a clear answer, mainly because it is difficult to predict the next trend of the exchange rate.
Boss Bu also said that he settled the foreign exchange in time on October 28. At that time, the exchange rate was around 6.70. Compared with the current exchange rate of 6.68, he was very satisfied. Fortunately, I settled the foreign exchange in advance, which can be said to have saved unnecessary losses.
For foreign traders, the rise and fall of the exchange rate is Representing the rise and fall of profits, the exchange rate during foreign exchange settlement is crucial, but this is precisely difficult to control. The recent RMB exchange rate has been like a roller coaster. If you fail to grasp the timing of foreign exchange settlement, you may lose money in vain. But if you grasp the timing well, the profits will be huge.
Sometimes it is very troublesome to meet some foreign customers who are difficult to deal with. According to a foreign trade boss: “The exchange rate has fallen recently, and my U.S. dollar customers pay very quickly. When the exchange rate rises, the payments are particularly slow. In fact, it has no impact on them, but they just don’t want us to get an extra point because of the exchange rate.” Money. The exchange rate has fallen recently. Even if I receive the money, I will not settle the exchange. Although the money is in the account, it means that there is no receipt.”
Professionals believe that this sharp drop in the exchange rate is triggered by Europe’s return to blockade. The rapid decline of stock indexes and the market selling short positions on the US dollar before the US election were the main reasons for the US dollar’s rebound. In addition to the U.S. election, the Federal Reserve’s November meeting, non-agricultural data and other factors will also become important factors triggering market fluctuations.
The textile market has cooled down, and the final payment of clothing may reappear
The outbreak of the epidemic in Europe will not only affect the RMB exchange rate, but cloth bosses may also encounter major obstacles in accepting orders. The foreign trade market, which has just begun to recover, is faced with another lockdown in Europe, and foreign orders may be suspended again. In the early days, as the foreign epidemic was under control, many domestic traders began their annual stockpiling. However, the news of the European epidemic and the cancellation of the Christmas season made them lack confidence again, and some bosses have stopped production.
Many domestic garment factories eventually export their garments abroad, so the foreign trade market is inextricably linked to the domestic market. Once foreign markets are affected by the epidemic again, domestic clothing factories will also bear the brunt, and clothing sales will also be affected.
According to Boss Bu, the crazy market in October may pay a heavy price after Double Eleven. That is to say, the sales of winter clothing are not good, and clothing customers are difficult to pay the balance, and the arrears are extended or the clothing is in debt. That is to say, there will be a phenomenon that you will see at the end of every year in the market where there are many hangers in front of the sales departments selling down jackets, cotton clothes, etc. A person in charge of a domestic sales company said: “Double Eleven has not yet passed, and I have already had two customers say hello to me, saying that the balance of the payment may be used to cover the debt. This is the consequence of crazy stocking in the early stage!”
The sales of down jackets and cotton jackets largely depend on the weather. Although there were predictions in October that this year would be a cold winter, the weather has still not turned cooler since November, and there has been no widespread snowy weather in the northern region. Therefore, textile professionals lack confidence in the sale of winter clothing.
The sales situation of winter clothing is only the speculation of market participants. The actual situation depends on its online and offline transaction volume after Double Eleven, as well as the weather conditions in November and December. Moreover, it is normal for the RMB exchange rate to fluctuate. It rises and falls sometimes, and a bottoming out may occur soon. Boss Bu only needs to do the things in front of him, and as for the market outlook, he can only adapt to circumstances.
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