There was a saying in the stock market that as long as investors did not buy stocks, the return rate could exceed 80%. This year’s textile market seems to have encountered a similar situation. Dilemma.
Mr. Wang is the person in charge of a weaving company. According to him, after entering November, there have been few orders received in the market. Although the market in October was good, but such The “good days” only lasted a month. Half of the inventory in the warehouse has been removed, but the orders received are almost finished one by one, but no new orders have been received.
As the epidemic in Europe and the United States becomes increasingly serious, Europe begins a second lockdown, which directly disrupts the stocking market for next spring and summer. Large supermarkets such as Wal-Mart and COSTCO, which dominate the European and American markets, are Clothing orders were canceled in large numbers, and the market in November was cut in half. Seeing the inventory in the warehouse accumulating again, the textile people felt extremely melancholy.
But companies that receive orders will be happy ?
Mr. Li is the manager of the foreign trade department of a textile company. According to him, although I recently received some foreign trade orders, and I was in a hurry to rush to the construction site to make the orders. However, when I finally calculated the cost, I actually lost money.
This is mainly due to four reasons:
First of all, everyone has a lot of inventory on hand now, and they are all short of orders. It is a seller’s market. Foreign traders will lower prices after learning about this situation;
Second, it’s because customers who placed large orders in previous years did not dare to stock up because of the epidemic. In the end, those who bought clothing fabrics were quick and urgent small orders. Anyone who has done textiles should know that the smaller the order, the higher the cost. The more urgent it is, the higher the cost often means;
Third, due to the signing of RCEP and the stabilization and improvement of China’s domestic economy, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated significantly, but in the short term, this will have a negative impact on textile foreign trade. It is not a good thing for enterprises. After the exchange rate returned to the 6.5 era, the pressure on textile enterprises has increased;
Finally, because the economies of Europe and the United States and other countries have not yet recovered, and the Chinese economy is currently performing well, this As a result, exports are far greater than imports, and only 1 of the 3.5 containers shipped out can be returned. In the end, there is an increasing shortage of domestic containers, but there are no more containers at foreign ports, and shipping costs have greatly increased. For example, the Southeast Asia route has risen from about 10 yuan/kg in early September to 18 yuan-20 yuan/kg.
What are companies that cannot receive orders doing? Companies that have received orders are worried about losses caused by increased costs. However, compared to foreign countries where even normal operations are affected, it is even good for domestic companies to be able to start operations normally. .
Due to the incomplete development of the industrial chain and the ineffective control of the COVID-19 epidemic, emerging textile clusters such as Southeast Asia have been greatly restricted in completing orders in 2020 and have suffered a “devastating” blow.
According to Vietnam’s “Industry and Trade Electronic News” report on November 2, Vietnam’s textile and clothing exports in the first 10 months are expected to be US$24.76 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%. Exports for the whole year are expected to be US$33-35 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10%.
Petra News Agency recently reported that the Jordanian Industry Association stated that Jordan’s clothing and leather exports in the first nine months of this year were JD 899 million (approximately US$1.27 billion), a year-on-year decrease of 15%. . It is expected that industry exports will worsen in the fourth quarter of this year, and the decline may reach 25%.
Myanmar Global Star News reported that according to statistics from the Myanmar Ministry of Commerce, exports of the garment industry reached US$4.28 billion in the 2019/20 fiscal year, a decrease of 6.95% from US$4.6 billion in the same period last year
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Textile companies in China and even around the world have been in a state of overcapacity many years ago, especially for some conventional varieties with relatively simple processes. This problem is even more serious.
Of course, this is a problem that most traditional industries will face when they develop to a certain extent. When profits are high, everyone invests in a rush, and eventually supply exceeds demand, but it is difficult to reduce the expanded production capacity. , is a certain necessity from the objective aspect and is not subject to human will.
But under normal circumstances, the worst market situation is just like this in 2019 , the market will adjust itself, and then form a 3-4 year boom cycle.
But this year’s epidemic has brought a change to this normal cycle.” “Dimensionality reduction strike”, it was agreed that the market will be like a spring that will be loose for two years and then tightened for two years. Suddenly the epidemic is like a naughty kid coming from outside and dragging the spring down. When will it bounce back? It all depends on this bear. When will the impact of the child be eliminated?
However, with the recent good news about the new crown vaccine, the dawn of defeating the new crown is about to emerge.
Zhang Wenhong, Director of the Infectious Diseases Department of Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University, held the event on November 28 In a forum, he said that at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, people around the world will usher in a climax of the launch of vaccines from all over the world, and the epidemic will be slowly brought under control.
I believe that by that time, the market will be able to pick up, and the textile people are looking forward to the ” A retaliatory backlash may be coming.
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