Beginning in December, as international oil prices continued to rise, the prices of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol began to rise, which also drove the price of polyester filament. prices rise.
In half a month, the prices of various specifications of polyester filament have generally increased by 500-600 yuan/ton, with the overall increase exceeding 10%.
On December 18, the price of polyester filament rose again, polyester The price of polyester yarn in ester factories continues to rise, with the increase generally ranging from 50-150 yuan/ton, which can be regarded as continuing the momentum of price increases in the first half of the month.
Faced with the continuous rise in polyester prices, some cloth bosses have chosen Centralized stocking. Mr. Li, the person in charge of a weaving company that makes elastic fabrics, said that because there were still orders in the factory and in order to prevent the continued rise in raw material prices from affecting profits, he stocked up on polyester yarn for two months in early December, and he was able to make a profit from this increase.
It is precisely because of the “buy-in” of some cloth bosses that the production and sales of polyester in the first half of December performed well, with sales exceeding 100 on many occasions, and several times The average production and sales of polyester exceed 200%.
But at the same time, many cloth bosses still choose to wait and see. 2020 is a difficult year. Faced with the “avalanche” of raw material prices at the beginning of the year, many cloth bosses have lingering fears, so they have developed the habit of buying and using as they go. The rise and fall of hundreds of yuan cannot change them for the time being.
It is approaching the end of the year, and we have almost received all the orders we should receive. The cloth bosses are facing a situation similar to that in July and August this year. When to adjust the start of production, when to take holidays, how much inventory to prepare, and how much raw materials to store are all issues that cloth bosses are more concerned about at this stage. It is not easy to make a decision. Many things need to be considered. Among them, the changing trend of polyester filament prices is also a very important point. Will the price of polyester filaments continue to rise in the future?
Confidence is restored, raw materials soar
According to market participants, the previous rise in polyester filament yarns was a correction in anticipation of a recovery in the future economic environment. The main driving force was the prices of upstream crude oil, PTA, ethylene glycol and other products. The change.
This change mainly comes from the new crown vaccine. Although the cumulative number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in the world has exceeded 20 million, as the United Kingdom, Russia, the United States and other countries Vaccinations have begun one after another, and market confidence has gradually begun to build. In addition, due to the global economic downturn, a lot of hot money in the market has nowhere to go, and they have begun to speculate on commodities, causing polyester raw materials including PTA and ethylene glycol to rise sharply. .
In addition, since the price of polyester filament fell sharply at the beginning of 2020, it has been running at a historically low level. When good news appears in the market, the price of polyester filament will rise to a certain level. A rebound in magnitude is also normal.
However, we have also seen that although downstream weaving factories are also stocking up, However, since orders fell significantly in December, this “chasing the rise” momentum is difficult to continue. For example, Mr. Tian, the person in charge of a textile company that owns both a weaving factory and a small chemical fiber factory, said that the recent situation is that the silk in the chemical fiber factory is not enough to sell, but the cloth in the weaving factory has accumulated 7 million.
Therefore, the main factor that will suppress the continued rise in polyester prices in the future is the tight cash flow of weaving companies.
In terms of receivables, affected by the market situation, textile companies generally stated that the time for receivables has been extended this year, and the extension of receivables has been to a large extent. It affects the financial health of textile enterprises.
In terms of inventory, due to the significant reduction in the number of orders, the inventory of weaving enterprises has increased sharply. For textile enterprises, increasing inventory is equivalent to reducing working capital. Many textile companies have decided to take holidays in advance, and taking holidays in advance will reduce the use of raw materials.
So it’s not that many textile companies don’t want to buy raw materials, but they really don’t have so much money on hand, and this will also affect the rebound momentum of polyester yarn.
From the perspective of the overall environment, as the market is optimistic about the economy in 2021 , chemical raw materials, commoditiesRising prices are a major market trend at this stage, and it is difficult for polyester filament in the polyester industry chain to remain immune.
Therefore, the editor judges that as long as the trend of rising chemicals does not pass, the price increase of polyester filament may continue; but on the other hand, for textile For enterprises, it is not advisable to blindly chase the increase. This year, textile enterprises are generally under great pressure on inventory and funds. Ensuring the health of their own cash flow is more important than anything else. In the face of hoarding, it is better to act according to their ability.
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