In December, stimulated by the good news of COVID-19 vaccination in many countries, international oil prices began to rebound and once again stood at the US$50/barrel mark. The quotations of polyester filament manufacturers also began to increase. Since December, polyester filament yarn manufacturers have begun to increase prices. The focus of silk negotiations rose slightly, rising by 500-600 yuan/ton from the closing price at the end of November.
However, recently, the market has been reporting confirmed cases of mutated new coronavirus infection in many countries, and some countries have begun to extend or even restart their blockade policies, which has poured “cold water” on the market’s expectations for the first half of next year.
(According to the latest real-time statistical data from WHO, as of December 25, Beijing time 1 At 09:00, the global cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia was 77,530,799, and the cumulative number of deaths was 1,724,904.)
As we all know, the last increase in polyester filament was in anticipation of a recovery in the future economic environment. The main driving force for the correction below is the change in the prices of upstream crude oil, PTA, ethylene glycol and other products. As the epidemic recurs, it will definitely bring resistance to the continued stocking of downstream products. Fortunately, we are currently in the traditional year-end stocking period, and there are still bright spots to be found in the market.
Moderate downstream procurement
For As far as the textile industry is concerned, December is originally a time to sprint for performance. Both foreign trade and domestic demand markets will perform well. Recently, market transactions have partially heated up. With the rise in raw material prices, textile companies have performed well in receiving orders.
Yang Jingyi, general manager of Suzhou Bianduo Textile Co., Ltd., said that order transactions this week have improved compared with the end of last month. “Almost 20,000 meters of goods were shipped last day. About 40,000 meters, the market should have ushered in the last wave of replenishment before the year.”
Li Zhen, the relevant person in charge of Daping Special Textile Co., Ltd., which mainly sells Oxford cloth, said : “We mainly make Oxford cloth military fabrics. The orders this year are generally good. The orders on hand can be completed until June next year. In previous years, one pattern produced 5 million meters, and this year one pattern can reach 8 million meters.”
In addition, Zhang Chuankui of Huilong Textile also said that the overall status of the recent orders on hand is relatively good: “Our orders are basically foreign trade exports, mainly home textile products, mainly from American supermarket customers. Orders have been continuing.”
In mid-December, the atmosphere of market goods hoarding has heated up again. At present, we have learned from dyeing factories that a lot of market goods have been put into warehouses recently, and some that disappeared in the early stage have Large orders of 100,000 meters and millions of meters have appeared again. However, unlike the concentrated downstream replenishment in October, there are not many hot-selling products in this round of market. The transactions are mostly concentrated in elastic fabrics (mainly T400), Orders for fabrics such as pongee and polyester taffeta used in autumn and winter are still performing well.
From the demand side, this outbreak of the market is not sudden and is in line with previous years. According to the law of market development, on the one hand, in order to avoid the traditional Spring Festival holiday, domestic and foreign customers will place orders 1.5-2 months in advance. This year, due to the joint impact of the epidemic and the market, the market may enter the Spring Festival vacuum period earlier than in previous years, which has also prompted This wave of orders has been placed intensively, and downstream traders and garment factories have begun purchasing.
Weaving mills were busy with production last year
For this year’s weaving companies, they will have a certain amount of gray fabric inventory on hand in the short term. Difficulty.
At present, whether it is a light fabric manufacturer or a medium-thick fabric manufacturer, there is more or less a certain amount of inventory in the factory. However, judging from recent surveys, Most businesses are still operating at full capacity.
Yu Qingyao of Zhenxing Textile Factory said that the 500 looms in the weaving factory are currently in full operation. Although this year’s orders are worse than last year, we still choose to maintain normal production. .
Li Zhen also said that the factory’s machines are fully operational and production has been ongoing, which is unchanged from November. There are no plans to adjust the load in the near future, and production will continue until the holidays.
For textile companies, the recent market order situation is better than that in the previous period, and order-making Many companies have more or less orders on hand, so they are working hard to deliver goods before the end of the year; even companies with poor performance in orders on hand are taking advantage of the relatively low raw material prices this year and the long storage time of chemical fiber fabrics. Therefore, as long as funds can be recovered, the intention to reduce production is not strong.
At present, the operating rate of water-jet looms in Shengze area remains at about 80%, which is slightly lower than that in November. This is mainly due to the low production enthusiasm of a few processing factories.
The market is still Yes��Big replenishment space
Of course, the battlefield-tested textile bosses are not blindly optimistic about production. For 2021, many business leaders are still cautious. On the optimistic side.
As Mr. Zhang, who specializes in home textile fabrics, said: “Now many countries have announced vaccination plans, which is definitely good for the market, especially for clothing customers and home textiles. The benefits may be limited for customers like this. After all, this year due to the epidemic, many people can only stay at home, which has increased the frequency of replacement of home textile products.”
In addition, according to industry experts, the current internal and external demand for terminals continues to improve, and the country is one step ahead of overseas. In September, retail sales of clothing companies have achieved a single-month +8% year-on-year increase, and export volume With the implementation of vaccines and the restart of overseas economies, improvements are expected to accelerate, and the overall end demand for textile and apparel is expected to rebound.
Secondly, due to the lack of replenishment in the entire industry this year, the inventory level of the entire industry chain is not high, especially in the clothing sector. The inventory has been basically flat in the past two years. Therefore, with the demand next year Recovery and rising oil prices, and there is still a lot of room for replenishment, will drive demand growth for fabrics, which is likely to trigger retaliatory consumption in the market.
Of course, the recurrence of the new crown epidemic has still planted too many “seeds” of uncertainty in the market. No wonder some textile bosses are anxious: subsequent orders are pending again!
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