Although various countries have begun to vaccinate against the new crown vaccine, giving consumers an urgently needed shot in the arm, in general, for the foreign trade market in 2021, at least the first half of the year will still be a “battle” year.
Recently, a foreign trade textile boss complained to the editor: I think the foreign trade market in 2021, at least in the first half of the year, will not be very good.
He listed several points:
Raw materials have increased by a thousand yuan per month;
The RMB exchange rate continues to depreciate;
The foreign retail industry is in the doldrums;
……
Although the latest textile and clothing export data recently released by the General Administration of Customs stated that China’s total textile and clothing exports in 2020 were US$291.22 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% over 2019. Among them, textiles have grown for nine consecutive months since April, and clothing has grown since April. A reversal was achieved after August, with growth achieved for five consecutive months.
It can be seen that textile foreign trade exports have bottomed out and rebounded since September, delivering a better “answer sheet”. Many textile foreign trade companies also performed well in receiving orders during this period. A wave of market conditions broke out in the fabric market around New Year’s Day, and foreign trade orders were issued intensively, causing weaving manufacturers to seize the time for production. However, in late January, the market atmosphere dropped significantly. .
There is not much “surplus grain” on hand, and the textile enterprises have insufficient “confidence”
Judging from recent market visits, it is not The boss of a textile company that does less foreign trade orders said: There are not many new orders, and there will be no orders after the Spring Festival…
According to convention, in previous years, most of the orders were made after the Spring Festival holiday. Foreign trade bosses will have a few months of orders on hand to execute to ensure that there will be no “empty window” in the market after returning from the holidays. However, this year’s foreign trade order stamina is not enough.
Mr. Shen, a textile boss, said: “In January, there will not be many new orders in the market. We will be under pressure after the Spring Festival.” Another one is doing foreign trade orders for imitation silk. Salesperson Xiao Wang also complained: “I have been finishing the work recently. After the orders on hand are completed, there are no more orders.”
In the early stage, boosted by costs, orders for autumn and winter clothing and home textile fabrics were frequently placed on the market. Large orders that were missing before were also traced in dyeing factories, whether it was semi-elastic spring or spring. Yafang, T400, suede, etc. all have a certain amount of sales in the market. Foreign trade orders from dyeing factories are piling up and shipments are slow. There is a dyeing factory that makes foreign trade orders for sofas and has been in a state of liquidation. There are queues for each stage of card pressing and shipment, and the delivery time is as long as 20-25 days.
With the end of this wave of orders, there is insufficient follow-up of new orders in the market. In addition, the foreign epidemic is still breaking out. Foreign trade bosses who are busy with early orders are also increasingly worried about the market outlook. . Even if vaccination gradually becomes popular, the recovery of supply capacity in Europe and the United States will still be slower than expected.
8,000 stores have been closed, and the United States may usher in a new wave of bankruptcies!
Since 2020, due to the epidemic, the real economy of many countries has suffered a once-in-a-century suppression, especially the retail industry, which has endured more pain of.
In the United States, the wave of bankruptcies has been particularly brutal for department stores, clothing companies and other retailers that sell non-essential goods, according to research. Americans who used to like to go shopping have turned to buying food, disinfectant supplies, toilet paper and other daily necessities after the outbreak of the new coronavirus. According to data provided by Standard & Poor’s, about 20% of bankruptcy filings are filed by discretionary retailers, a proportion that far exceeds that of other industries.
Coresight Research counted in a report that a total of 8,401 stores have been closed so far in 2020. While vaccination efforts are underway, experts and analysts say more retail bankruptcies will occur before the situation improves.
“The epidemic abroad is still very recurrent. In previous years, during the period after the holidays, our factory would receive a lot of orders for imitation silk, but now the overall order for imitation silk has decreased. In addition, There is a high probability that the foreign epidemic situation will not be much better in the first half of the year, and foreign trade orders will not recover on a large scale.” said a manager who specializes in artificial silk.
As early as early January, foreign media reported that Zara’s parent company, Inditex Group, known as one of the “four largest fashion retail groups in the world”, announced that its Bershka, Pull&Bear and Stradivarius will close all Chinese stores and only retain e-commerce channels such as the official website. Some analysts say that the group’s big move this time is not only to stop losses in time, but also to optimize itself.
Due to the long-term coexistence of the epidemic with mankind, the global economy has Time will enter a state of low growth or slow growth, which is not conducive to the downstream retail industry, and the fabric industryAs an intermediate link in the entire clothing and home textile industry, its recovery largely relies on the consumption of downstream products. However, in the face of the continued pressure exerted by the current epidemic on small and medium-sized enterprises, the clothing industry is still suffering from greater challenges, so it will recover significantly in the short term. It is unlikely that the area will be replenished.
The current international situation is unpredictable and there is too much uncertainty in the foreign trade market. In addition, the seven-month appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has increased the number of orders received by textile companies. Difficulty, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. However, compared with the “darkest moment” of the foreign trade market in March last year, the market is still recovering slowly this year. Recently, US President-elect Biden launched an economic stimulus plan of up to US$1.9 trillion, aiming to cope with the impact of the epidemic on households and businesses, promote market consumption, and boost market confidence to a certain extent. It also has a positive impact on foreign trade. certain promotion.
However, in the era of “too many monks and too few people”, companies can only rely on their own excellent capabilities to retain customers and survive the “low pressure” caused by the black swan of the epidemic. . </p
