Not long after the market opened in the Year of the Ox, textile people felt the “bullishness” of the market.
The first is the surge in crude oil prices. During the Spring Festival, there is a general holiday in China, but the international crude oil market has been operating. During the holiday, crude oil prices continued to rise. After the Spring Festival holiday, the rising momentum of crude oil continued.
As of 9:30 on March 1, WTI US crude oil was quoted at US$58.30/barrel, an increase of +1.92%; Brent crude oil was quoted at US$65.57/barrel, an increase of +1.79 %.
Crude oil prices drive the rise in polyester raw materials. Driven by crude oil, the prices of chemical raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol continued to rebound, and ethylene glycol futures saw multiple daily limits.
Polyester raw materials have risen, and polyester filament will naturally rise as well, with all specifications rising. More than one thousand yuan.
What has risen more sharply than polyester is spandex, with polyester 100 and 200 rising. The price of spandex has increased by 1,000 and 2,000 yuan. Compared with a year ago, the price of spandex has increased by more than 10,000 yuan.
The price of filament has increased, and the price of gray fabric has also risen in response, with some rising by 3. 4 cents, or more than 2 or 3 yuan. Sometimes the raw materials rise so fast that the cloth boss even cancels the price quoted in the morning in the afternoon.
The price of raw materials has increased, and dyeing fees are also “unwilling to be lonely”. Recent dyeing fee price increase orders are “flying all over the sky” “.
The textile market in the Year of the Ox in 2021 has just begun, and the market is already “rising”, and downstream demand is really Is it that good?
The gray fabric business is “hot”
First of all, along with polyester, spandex, polyester staple, viscose and other raw materials Prices continue to rise, and the sales of gray fabrics have indeed been very good in recent times.
The person in charge of a simulated silk company said that since the resumption of work at the beginning of the year, the company’s daily production and sales can reach more than 300%. In ten days, it could not be sold at the end of last year. The inventory of more than 50 days has now been reduced to more than 20 days.
A truck driver in the Shengze area also said that he can now transport three or four trucks of goods a day. He is basically busy from morning to night and has little free time. His colleagues around him basically The same is true above.
The demand for fabrics is questionable
Logically speaking, if the gray fabric business is good, the fabric business will naturally be less. , but this is not the case. Perhaps it is because the market has just opened and it is not time to place orders. In short, most cloth bosses said that although gray cloth is rising day by day, orders from downstream garment companies have not yet started to be placed. Due to a lack of funds and considering the risk of raw material fluctuations, textile companies do not dare to prepare too many raw materials without actual orders being placed.
Therefore, although the upstream raw materials are booming, the end market performance is somewhat “Schrödinger”. Until then, no one can tell whether the end demand can return to before the epidemic.
However, although it cannot be accurately predicted, we can focus on a few key nodes. The results of these key points will greatly affect the future market trend this year.
OPEC meeting
OPEC+ production Oil producers will meet on March 4 and are expected to discuss a mild easing of supply curbs from April, with oil prices at 13-month highs. With the recovery of the international economy, the original production reduction agreement is indeed somewhat outdated. However, once a new production increase agreement is reached, the rising momentum of crude oil may be stopped, thus affecting the polyester end.
Mutation virus
In 2020 Under the generally unfavorable circumstances of global epidemic prevention in 2019, vaccines have become the last “life-saving straw” for most countries. However, the recent frequent emergence of new coronavirus variants has cast a shadow on future epidemic prevention and control.�� Layer of shadow.
According to Indian official statements, relevant departments have discovered 240 new variants of the new coronavirus strain in India;
According to foreign media reports , two groups of researchers found that a local new coronavirus variant is spreading rapidly in New York City, USA. The mutations carried by this strain are worrying, because the mutations may weaken the effectiveness of the current vaccine or make the virus contagious higher;
According to the Italian Xinhua Times, a 53-year-old medical worker in Italy died of infection with the mutated virus after receiving the second dose of the vaccine
…
There are different types of COVID-19 vaccines around the world, and the ability of the COVID-19 vaccines to protect against mutated viruses has not been verified. Once a mutated virus that is difficult to be protected by vaccines appears and spreads widely, humans will eventually defeat The duration of the epidemic will be extended again.
Editor’s Note
Recently The prices of upstream raw materials have risen so fast that the editor suspects that they have traveled back in time to 2018. However, it is obvious that the current market conditions are far worse than those then. For textile companies, the risk of market overdraft needs to be vigilant. </p
