On the 28th, India encountered its “darkest moment”: According to a report from the country’s Ministry of Health that day, the total number of deaths from COVID-19 in India has exceeded 200,000. However, less than 9% of people in India have received the first dose of vaccine, and both the vaccination speed and vaccine supply are far from keeping up with the spread of the virus.
Real orders are rare, speculation comes first
In the face of such an epidemic, there are voices in the market speculating on the return of orders, which has also attracted some attention from textile people. From a rational point of view, even if orders do flow to China, they will often flow to some larger textile companies. Only some “tangtangshuishui” can really flow to the market, and the transfer of orders also takes time, so the short-term Most cloth bosses at this time may not have such a strong personal experience, and the editor learned from several friends who are engaged in foreign trade business that this is indeed the case.
But the actual order situation cannot stop the market speculation. Finally, there is an excuse. How can it be justified without a wave of speculation? It just so happens that PTA’s opening rate is relatively low recently and its profits are also low, so it is just right to take advantage of the trend. After a wave of rise, the price of PTA futures rose by more than 6% in 2 days without any obvious positive results.
However, whether it is illusory actual orders or raw materials for speculation in the short term, in the long term, the impact on The influence of the cloth boss is not as big as imagined. In fact, in the face of the epidemic in India, textile people need to pay attention to other aspects.
Outbreaks in countries surrounding India
According to the current situation, the epidemic in India can basically be declared uncontrollable Well, in fact, everyone should already have certain psychological expectations about this. After all, even developed countries like the United States and Europe cannot control it. So what reason does India, which has adopted similar laissez-faire measures, have to control the epidemic? It will only be more serious than in European and American countries. Some media even predict that the actual number of confirmed cases in India at this stage has reached 400 million.
The outbreak in India alone is already a humanitarian disaster. What should those countries surrounding India with equally underdeveloped public health levels do? Faced with the spread of the out-of-control epidemic in India, these The country also has no ability to resist. There is already news that Thailand has also “fallen”. If this trend continues, all ASEAN countries may be affected.
ASEAN has become an important export region for Chinese textiles. If these places are affected, these orders are likely to be affected. Of course, because most of the local production is for ready-made garments, there may also be a wave of truly large-scale order transfers like last September and October.
More pessimistic results
Today’s developed countries in Europe and the United States, as well as our country, are working hard to vaccinate their citizens, because whoever popularizes the vaccine first will be able to achieve true herd immunity and have the confidence to open the country. However, the spread of the epidemic in India has brought doubts on this conclusion. There comes a shadow.
Due to insufficient basic health facilities, there are too many infected people. The spread of the virus in India is like “raising a voodoo” and it is easy to produce some “mutated viruses”. Different from the traditional inactivated vaccines used in China, the vaccines used in some European and American countries target certain genetic fragments of the virus and are more targeted. However, if certain mutated viruses appear, the protective efficacy of the vaccine is likely to be significantly reduced.
If a “super virus” emerges that can cause a significant decrease in the effectiveness of certain vaccines, it may affect not only developing countries with backward medical and health standards, but also some developed countries that have already been vaccinated. Very likely to be affected as well.
For textile companies, if this situation really occurs, although the situation may be better than in 2020, orders may also decline to a greater extent.
Editor’s note: In the context of economic globalization, the world has become a ” “Everyone prospers, everyone suffers.” As the world’s second most populous country, India’s out-of-control epidemic is definitely not just India, and the chain reaction it will bring may be more serious than textile people imagine. </p
