On September 10, the settlement price of West Texas Light Oil October 2021 futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was US$69.72 per barrel, an increase of 1.58 from the previous trading day. US dollar, up 2.3%; the November 2021 Brent crude oil futures settlement price on the London Intercontinental Exchange was US$72.92 per barrel, up US$1.47, or 2.1%, from the previous trading day.
In the past week, the market focused on oil and gas and refinery production disruptions caused by hurricanes in the U.S. Gulf region. At present, oil and gas production in the U.S. Gulf region is recovering slowly, and international oil prices have begun to rebound due to this impact.
Under the influence of rising crude oil prices, the polyester market has also risen in response. The FDY of a large factory in Zhejiang rose by 100 yuan/ton, and many other manufacturers also intended to increase FDY.
The time has arrived in September and October, the most critical period in the second half of the year, which is also commonly known as the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”. Polyester filament Can we take this opportunity to break the deadlock of not buying silk without promotion?
01
Increasing equipment maintenance, polyester operating rate declines
From the current point of view, there are still bullish factors that stimulate downstream purchases of polyester filament. Especially recently, affected by the “dual control”, some polyester factories have added production cuts and maintenance, and the overall operating rate of the polyester industry continues to decline.
Device maintenance
A 200,000 tons/year polyester device in Jiangyin is planned to be shut down in the near future. The device mainly supports Producing polyester filament;
A 3.6 million-ton PTA device in East China was affected by the typhoon and its load dropped to around 70%. The device maintained a load of 90% in the early stage. The device is expected to open on the evening of September 13 Recover;
Hengli Petrochemical plans to conduct annual maintenance of the PTA-5 production line on October 8, involving an annual production capacity of 2.5 million tons of the device. It plans to conduct annual maintenance of the PTA-3 production line in late October, involving The annual production capacity of the device is 2.2 million tons;
A 650,000-ton PTA device in East China that was shut down for maintenance on September 8 restarted last weekend, but it is not yet in normal operation.
Polyester equipment continues to reduce production, and it is expected that the supply of polyester yarn will continue to decrease in the future. Reduced supply, rising costs, and the stabilization of operating loads of downstream weaving companies have all given a certain boost to polyester filament.
02
Looming machine production is reduced, and the supply of gray cloth may be less than demand
In addition Recently, tens of thousands of looms in Nantong have stopped production, and the entire textile industry is bound to be affected by large-scale production cuts. Looking back on the environmental protection rectification in 2017, due to the reduction of water-jet looms, the supply of gray fabrics was tight, and many specifications of gray fabrics were snatched up, which suddenly pushed the market into the peak season. The scope of supervision and inspection continues to expand in Jiangsu. I heard that the Jiangyin area of Wuxi has also received a similar notice of production restrictions. The scope of production restrictions and suspensions may continue to expand. Be wary of history repeating itself!
At the same time, downstream order receipts are steadily recovering , the operating rates of looms and printing and dyeing began to stop falling and rebound. As time goes by, the peak season is gradually deepening. When the peak season encounters production cuts, the demand for polyester filament from downstream weaving companies increases, and after the price of polyester increases, will there be no promotion or purchase of polyester filament?
03
Tens of thousands of looms have stopped production, and the demand for polyester yarn may decline
The production reduction of weaving enterprises is actually a double-edged sword. If the recovery of orders is slow and the order volume is still mainly small batches, it means that the demand for polyester yarn will be further reduced in the short term. And after the recent concentrated replenishment of positions by downstream companies, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Weaving companies buy at low prices, and regular promotions are difficult to stimulate large purchases. Pulse production and sales overdraft demand in advance, and the market becomes increasingly deserted after the event. Therefore, the reduction in weaving production will also bring more sluggish polyester production and sales to the market.
04
Insufficient news, difficult to support polyester cost
Up Over the weekend, Saudi Aramco will lower its official selling prices for all grades of crude oil in Asia in October, by at least US$1 per barrel. This drop exceeds market expectations, putting greater pressure on oil prices. There is also news that the Chinese government will organize the release of national oil reserves in order to alleviate the pressure of raw material shortages at a certain local refinery. This news has also suppressed crude oil prices to a certain extent.
In the current situation where news is relatively scarce, Crude oil is facing upward pressure, and the upside space may be limited. In the long term, crude oil prices may not be strong, polyester filament will lose cost support, prices are unlikely to rise, and will continue to fluctuate. Then the weekly promotions of polyester factories will not end, and the pulse-type production and sales market may be staged every week.
The future of polyester yarn is actually not clear, mainly because the downstream situation is unknown, and the current overall demand is characterized by sluggish peak season. The typhoon weather was short-lived, and the polyester factories that had been shut down gradually resumed operations. Based on the above factors, the entire industry has changed greatly, and more work is needed in the future.Fluctuations in injection crude oil, changes in the operating load of domestic devices, the progress of new devices being put into production, etc.
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