Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have continued to introduce heavy measures to suppress coal prices. Coking coal, coking coal, and thermal coal have continued to fall by the limit, causing the polyester industry chain to fall one after another.
At the same time, the “dual control” power restriction policy has been temporarily lifted, and downstream weaving, printing and dyeing production capacity has increased. Two important news have had a greater impact on the downstream industry chain, and the market has also undergone subtle changes. Let’s take a look at the specific situation.
At present, affected by the short-term cancellation of power restrictions in Jiangsu, industry operations are gradually recovering, and the market will be on the right track. At present, according to data tracking from China Silk City Network, the operating rate of weaving enterprises in Shengze has rebounded to 78%.
After the resumption of production restrictions, the supply of some gray fabrics is still tight
The restoration of production capacity has relatively reduced the burden on the weaving market. It is understood that many specifications of gray fabrics are no longer in stock on the market. To get the goods, you need to wait for the machine to come down and make a reservation in advance. Nisi spinning is the most obvious example. In the past, the supply of gray fabrics was tight, leading to price hikes. Now that the supply has eased, prices have fallen quickly, the market has reacted quickly, and the market trend has been very obvious.
Manager Hu, who specializes in four-sided fabrics, said: “The factory has not received any further notice of production suspension, and the machines are fully operational. Many gray fabrics are out of stock, and we are now working hard to catch up on orders. ”
With 800 looms Mr. Cheng revealed that the factory has not limited production, and all the machines are producing nylon yarn, but there is still no inventory. The day’s output has been booked in advance by customers, so it is very nervous.
Inventories continue to decline and run at low levels
With production restrictions and a preference for gray fabric shipments, gray fabric inventories will naturally continue to decline. The power shortage continued in the previous week, coupled with the atmosphere of surge in commodity prices, domestic demand rebounded, and gray fabric inventories continued to be significantly reduced. Although production capacity has been increased, gray fabrics are being shipped one after another, so inventory is still declining slightly.
The two most popular types of gray fabrics this year are nylon and four-way elastic. Weaving manufacturers that mainly produce these two types of gray fabrics must have low or even zero inventory. After about one month of consumption, other manufacturers have also significantly destocked their warehouses. According to the data monitoring of Silkdu.com, the current inventory of water spray and air jet manufacturers in Shengze area is 28.3 days old.
Production restrictions boosted the market, and gray fabric sales increased by more than 30%
The recent supply of gray fabrics is still tight, and manufacturers are doing well in receiving orders. Many weaving companies also reported that the number of orders in October was much improved compared to September, with at least a 30% increase.
Manager Hu said that although goods sold on all sides have been very good this year, the performance in October is still very outstanding. The number of orders is significantly larger than before, and coupled with insufficient production capacity, there is really zero inventory.
Elastic fabric weaving company Mr. Lin also said that the factory is in other places and is not affected by production restrictions. The supply of gray fabrics is sufficient, which has a competitive advantage over local companies. Therefore, sales in the first three days of October The volume has far exceeded the volume in September as a whole. It can be seen that the recovery of production capacity has a great impact on the shipment of gray cloth.
It is unlikely that the price drop of nylon spinning will trigger a price drop
Production restrictions are lifted and production capacity is restored. The price of nylon spinning gray fabrics took the lead in falling. Its decline may trigger a wave of price declines in the market, but for now, it is unlikely that gray fabrics of other specifications will follow suit.
Although other products do not continue to rise, they will not decline in the short term. Many fabric owners have reported that prices will not fall at the moment. Polyester prices are still so high, and weaving production capacity is still recovering. The supply of gray fabrics of many specifications is still tight, so there is no possibility of a correction in the short term. Boss Bu always follows the market. If the market is good, prices will rise. If the market is bad, prices will fall. Well, the current sales situation in the gray fabric market is favorable. Market orders are still being issued in large quantities in the past two days. Let me ask, who would lower the price at this time?
Mr. Lin said: “At present, the price of gray fabrics has not fallen and is stable. The subsequent prices will follow the market and mainly depend on production capacity and market competition.”
Manager Hu said that the price of four-sided bullets is still rising, with a recent increase of 0.2-0.6 yuan/meter. There are no plans to fall at the moment. After all, polyester prices are still very high, and gray fabrics cannot fall either.
Summary
In terms of dyeing factories, although the operating rate has also been improved, due to the excessive amount of gray fabrics accumulated so far due to the production restriction, even if the production capacity is restored, it will be difficult to improve the current situation of liquidation for the time being. Therefore, the delivery No significant changes during the period. According to feedback from cloth bosses, current dyeing factories still need to queue up for a long time, and the production situation has not been alleviated. Basically, it still takes more than half a month to ship goods.
Although the current order reception situation is still good, this wave of orders is mainly affected by Double Eleven. In the later period, as power rationing was relaxed, domestic demand weakened during Double Eleven, and early orders were gradually sold out, leaving the gray fabric market with the risk of accumulating inventory again.
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