Not long ago, Omicron invaded foreign countries, causing oil prices to plummet and affecting the textile industry. Nowadays, the domestic epidemic control in Zhejiang has been upgraded, and the textile industry has been shocked again. Polyester yarn is subject to dual pressures from both supply and demand.
Concerns about foreign epidemics have cooled, boosting oil prices
Omicron shocked the market when it appeared. The number of sudden mutations far exceeded market expectations, causing market panic to continue to rise. As a result, oil prices were severely “suppressed” and plummeted by $10. However, subsequent foreign information showed that the new strain is widely transmissible but has a low fatality rate. Therefore, oil prices affected by Omicron slowly recovered from the cooling of foreign concerns about the epidemic and rebounded.
However, judging from the epidemic situation, there are still negative factors for oil prices. British health officials said that in the middle of this month, new cases of the Omicron variant will account for half of the total new cases, and it is expected that the number of cases of Omicron variant infection in the UK will reach 1 million by the end of December. The alert level has been raised to level 4.
Since the experience of “Black Friday”, oil prices have fluctuated significantly, and market sentiment has been in an unstable stage. Plummeting and rising prices are not the norm. If the spread of foreign epidemics expands in the future, worries may return, and in the case of seasonal demand off-season , oil prices may have a downward trend.
PTA is “rushing” again
Affected by the rebound in oil prices, PTA also suspended its continuous decline and showed a volatile upward trend. As of December 10, the main PTA contract closed at 4,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 142 yuan/ton compared with December 3. Recently, Hengli Petrochemical has started maintenance, and the start-up of domestic PTA devices has further declined. However, other domestic devices have no maintenance or restart plans in the short term. This will ease the pressure on the PTA supply side.
The Chinese New Year comes earlier this year than before. In addition, the downstream terminal market is currently in a deserted state, and some companies have stopped production. If orders continue to be low in the future, it is likely to increase the possibility of companies taking holidays and suspending production in advance. For PTA, the start of production will be on a further downward trend. However, due to the current weakening of PTA supply and obvious destocking, the rebound trend may continue in the short term.
Polyester is in turmoil
When polyester filament rises, people are stunned, and when it falls, it makes people even more confused. According to the monitoring data of China Silk City Network, polyester filament FDY 150D fell by 12.3% month-on-month, and was quoted at 7,350 yuan/ton on December 13; polyester filament POY 150D fell by 12.9%, and was quoted at 7,050 yuan/ton on December 13. tons; polyester filament DTY 150D fell 12.7%, and was quoted at 8,600 yuan/ton on December 13.
Since down jacket fabrics have been produced for a whole year this year and a large number of orders have been consumed in advance, the domestic autumn and winter fabric market is particularly light now, and the inventories of weaving factories continue to rise. Entering December, the outbreak of the epidemic caught people off guard. Foreign trade orders worsened and did not improve. The end-use weaving market had to slow down due to weakening demand. Although there are costs supporting the price of polyester filament, the imbalance between supply and demand will still restrict the upward trend of polyester filament market.
Affected by the Delta strain in the past few days, Zhejiang has entered a state of strict prevention, and logistics and transportation have encountered difficulties. The dye giant in Shangyu City has also announced a suspension of production due to epidemic prevention and control. Zhejiang Longsheng announced on the 10th that due to the epidemic, it is located in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province All subsidiaries in the Wanshangyu Economic and Technological Development Zone have begun to gradually reduce production and temporarily suspend production in an orderly manner.
In accordance with the notice on epidemic control in Shangyu District, Shaoxing City, Runtu Co., Ltd. has taken measures to shut down the production base in an orderly manner and has stopped feeding materials at present. This is undoubtedly a heavy blow to textile companies. If dyeing costs increase in the future, the situation of textile workers will be even more difficult.
In addition to the leading factor of oil prices, price fluctuations also depend on the evolution of the epidemic prevention and control situation and whether companies choose to stock up this year. If the downstream market has been in an atmosphere of pessimism, even if polyester yarn has cost support, the price and production and sales will only can be restricted.
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