It can be said that the three gold medals and silver medals ended in regret. Although no one in the textile industry wants to see such a situation, it is an indisputable fact that the textile market has suffered successive setbacks due to the impact of oil prices, epidemics, demand and other objective factors. All links in the industrial chain Production has been discontinued, holidays have been suspended, and polyester yarn has been in a state of turmoil.
Rising crude oil drives PTA to rebound
May Day is coming soon, and international oil prices in April have also experienced ups and downs. Overall, the prices of both Brent crude oil and WTI have increased slightly compared with the beginning of April. Brent compared with the beginning of April , an increase of 5.07%, and WTI increased by 2.43% from the beginning of April. With the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine unlikely to end in the short term, international oil prices will experience high fluctuations for a longer period of time, which will also cause more disruption to the market.
As of the 29th, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up $3.34, or 3.17%, at $105.36 per barrel. Brent crude oil (ICE) futures prices on London’s Intercontinental Exchange closed up $2.31, or 2.15%, at $107.26 per barrel.
The fluctuations in crude oil will inevitably affect the changes in PTA. After entering a short-term decline in late April, PTA has now returned to the upward trend as crude oil prices rise. Looking at April as a whole, the price of PTA increased by 340 yuan/ton. As of the 29th, the internal price of PTA was 6,410 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period in previous years, the price of PTA increased by 1,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.38%.
Although domestic PTA has recently been restricted by various factors. During the peak season, the operating rate has dropped significantly, and equipment is often undergoing maintenance. The demand has dropped significantly and the supply is tightening. However, the price is linked to crude oil after all, and load reduction and maintenance are indeed It also ensures the high and stable price of PTA. When the epidemic is under control and demand gradually picks up, a certain proportion of the entire industry chain will be destocked.
Difficult to protect profits due to reduced polyester production
While PTA is rising along with crude oil, polyester yarn is experiencing constant price cuts and production cuts. Originally, the domestic epidemic situation caused many places to be in a tense situation, but since mid-to-late March, as the epidemic has invaded Shanghai without mercy and intensified in severity, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions have been greatly affected, so that in the peak season, the polyester filament yarn Production and sales can almost be said to be in a sluggish state, which has also led most manufacturers to reduce production on a large scale to protect prices.
The effect is still somewhat effective. In April, some polyester products suffered losses. As more and more manufacturers overhauled their polyester equipment and stopped production, although the subsequent losses have slightly eased, production and sales are still light today, and the downstream industry is still in a state of decline. The demand is weak and it is necessary to purchase polyester yarn. Under the condition that the price of polyester yarn is reduced but the cost is rising, polyester yarn will inevitably be under great pressure. However, as the epidemic gradually comes under control and new equipment is put into operation, the slight rebound in polyester production may give companies some room to breathe in the future. As of the 29th, the polyester load had risen to more than 80%.
According to statistics from Silkdu.com, as of the 29th, the price of polyester filament FDY 150D was 8,380 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last Friday, with a profit of -470 yuan/ton; the price of polyester filament POY 150D was 7,700 yuan/ton. tons, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton from last Friday, and a profit loss of -650 yuan/ton; the price of polyester filament DTY 150D is 9,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, and a profit of 300 yuan/ton. . In addition to cost reasons, the decline in polyester filament profits is mainly due to poor demand during the peak season due to the epidemic, and pessimism in the downstream, resulting in high inventory levels and declining profits.
May is coming, and it will enter the off-season again. The outflow of orders is also more obvious. It is not very likely to win a hot situation in the off-season. The epidemic is now slowly under control, so textile people should focus on stability!
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