Last year, when the price of spandex was at its most exaggerated, some textile bosses thought of switching to selling spandex yarn. But after the spandex yarn plummeted this year, the high-priced inventory in the textile boss’s warehouse began to eat away at dust.
Fortunately, the amount of spandex yarn is small, so you won’t stock up on it in large quantities.
But the loss must be a lot…
This year, the price of spandex has been falling almost every three to five days. It is “green”. If it has dropped by half, it will definitely not stop. The price of crude oil has been ups and downs this month, and polyester yarn has also fallen and risen. However, spandex yarn has always adhered to the falling price. The pace never stops, and this is just the beginning.
Under normal circumstances, April to July is the off-season for spandex, and downstream demand continues to decrease. However, according to this year’s situation, the first half of the year is the off-season for spandex, and it is more likely that the status quo will be maintained in the second half of the year.
The cost side is no longer the “wind vane” of spandex prices.
It can be seen that although crude oil prices have continued to rise in the first half of this year, even if crude oil prices are US$70/barrel or US$120/barrel, they cannot change the continued decline in spandex yarn prices.
As the upstream of spandex yarn, the prices of pure MDI and PTMEG have fallen due to the impact of cost. The current price of pure MDI is 21,500 yuan/ton, which has dropped by about 500 yuan/ton compared with last week. The decrease this week is not large, while PTMEG this week There has been no significant change, except for a slight drop in prices at the beginning of the month. Assuming it is spandex yarn from previous years, changes in cost will not actually have much impact on it. In the past two years, due to the increase in spandex production capacity and speculation factors, spandex has risen and fallen sharply. Even if the prices of upstream pure MDI and PTMEG remain unchanged, the price of spandex yarn has continued to fall.
At present, it is difficult for the cost side to have much impact on the price of spandex yarn. As for how to fundamentally solve the current problem of unstoppable price drops faced by spandex yarn, spandex yarn manufacturers must of course fill the pit they have dug themselves.
How to stop falling and stabilize?
To truly solve this problem, we need to start from the source. According to data, as of the beginning of the month, the inventory days of domestic spandex manufacturers have continued to rise. The current inventory days are around 47.8 days, and the operating rate has dropped significantly, currently around 78%.
It can be seen from the curves in the two figures that inventory is growing very rapidly, and the overall inventory level is relatively high year-on-year. There is insufficient follow-up of new downstream orders and slow digestion of short-term inventory. Inventory can only be reduced by reducing the startup time. Such high inventory is difficult to digest in a short period of time. Therefore, there is a shocking picture of spandex prices falling sharply this year.
Unlike other raw materials, spandex yarn will break if stored improperly, so even if someone really wants to stock up, they will not buy it in large quantities. What’s more, the price continues to fall, and no “big wronged” boss will do it. Purchase at this time. In addition, the current sales of spandex-containing fabrics are not very good, and textile bosses are even less interested in purchasing spandex raw materials. Go to the warehouse? It’s a bit difficult to tell the truth.
The amount of spandex used in textile fabrics is not large, no more than 10%, so even if fabrics containing spandex can return to the “top class” in the second half of the year, it will be difficult for its price to rise significantly.
However, according to the current price of spandex yarn, its decline has been smaller than that in the previous period. Now it is only a few hundred or a few hundred. Before, it was a few thousand or a few thousand. In fact, the price has fallen to the normal price. It will be very difficult to say if it falls further. Difficult. What spandex manufacturers hope now is not that it will rebound, but that it will remain stable. But in the short term, it will fall a little more.
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