Since the beginning of July, the domestic pure MDI market has continued to decline. The most important factor cannot escape the continued weakening of the demand side. Although the supply side has experienced short-term shrinkage due to routine maintenance, the demand side has shrunk far more. The oversupply and shrinking volume caused the price of pure MDI to fall from 23,000 yuan/ton to the current 20,300 yuan/ton during the month.
However, the drop in cost has not accelerated the decline in spandex yarn prices. On the contrary, spandex, which has been declining for more than half a year, has finally slowed down its decline. The current price of 30D is 36,500 yuan/ton, which is a decrease compared to the same period last month. 6,500 yuan, which has slowed down from the monthly decline of nearly 10,000 yuan in the first half of the year.
“The spandex yarn we often buy has dropped from 81,000 yuan/ton to 33,000 yuan/ton, and it is estimated that it will not drop much further.” A textile boss who specializes in elastic fabrics said.
Although there is a slowdown, small declines continue
Obviously, the price of spandex has now begun to maintain a relatively stable level, and the recent price decline is mostly related to the cost side, and is not all “paying for” the early hype.
Nowadays, the operating rate of domestic spandex manufacturers is at a low level, currently around 70%, and some small production capacity is only 50-60%. Reducing startups and reducing inventory has indeed slowed down the decline in spandex yarn prices. However, spandex yarn prices have basically fallen. Before the crazy price rise the year before last, even if production capacity was not reduced, its price had basically reached the bottom.
The drop in the price of spandex is actually within everyone’s expectations. The price of spandex yarn, which has basically remained unchanged in the past, has been soaring due to last year’s speculation. However, its demand is there, coupled with the increase in production capacity, resulting in Inventories are rising rapidly. The textile market is not friendly to elastic fabrics this year, so its rapid price drop is completely expected.
However, since the price of 30D spandex fell below the 40,000 level, the decline has basically remained at around 500 yuan/ton, which is an improvement compared to the previous drop of thousands of yuan. Until yesterday, the price of spandex continued to fall slightly.
Now that the price has dropped to “before liberation”, perhaps what everyone is more concerned about is whether it can continue to become “popular”?
Can it rebound after hitting bottom?
Although some weaving bosses said that spandex manufacturers are still profitable at such prices, the current price of spandex yarn is very close to “bottoming out”. At this time, it is necessary to consider whether it will bottom out in the second half of the year.
In this regard, the editor believes that with the influence of the Golden Nine and Silver Ten in the third quarter, it may drive the hot sales of autumn and winter fabrics. As for elastic fabrics, which are the No. 1 best-selling list in the weaving market in the second half of the year, spandex yarn will also usher in A wave of “spring” will definitely bring prices back up, but after Double Eleven, the demand for autumn and winter fabrics in the weaving market will continue to fall, and the price of spandex yarn will definitely fall again, but the magnitude of the decline will not be It will be a big drop, but it will only be a small drop.
However, although the price of spandex yarn does not have a big impact on the cost side now, the price will still change according to changes in the cost side in the future when the price becomes normal. Currently, the price of crude oil is falling, so the price of spandex yarn is also declining slightly. Assume that the price of crude oil will change significantly in the later period. The phenomenon of rising and falling will still have a greater impact on the price of spandex yarn.
Looking at the price of spandex in the past five years, the peak demand season generally begins in mid-to-late August. On the one hand, there is support from the cost side, and on the other hand, winter orders are gradually issued. The rebound in demand has jointly pushed the spandex price to stop falling and may even recover. As winter orders are gradually delivered at the end of September, the demand for spandex declines, but supply pressure remains prominent. As inventories gradually increase, companies will repeat the sales model of profit-sharing and shipment. After October, the market gradually enters a downward channel.
Generally speaking, the possibility of turning red may not be high, but it is still possible to stop falling and rise slightly.
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