Economic turning point is something that can only be met
The new PMI index was recently announced, with a year-on-year increase of more than 4 percentage points. At the same time, the number of new loans from financial institutions such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has exploded. Zooming in, some experts believe that China’s economy has bottomed out, and “the time (bottoming out) should have been in November last year.” Behind the blind optimism is the high unemployment rate. It is expected that more than 20 million people will be unemployed this year, the vast majority of whom are rural migrants. Obviously, it is too early to identify an economic turning point.
Why are people so concerned about economic turning points? From a personal point of view, the turning point is undoubtedly a booster. The emergence of the turning point means that the employment situation has eased, and people no longer need to worry too much about the danger of unemployment. From the perspective of investors, the turning point will bring about the recovery of all walks of life, and the investment direction will gradually change. Clarity, thereby getting rid of the current passive situation of holding currency and waiting; from the government’s perspective, the emergence of an inflection point will drive employment, decompress the tense social situation, and avoid the destructive outbreak of various potential social risks. To sum up, the emergence of an inflection point will restore market confidence and continue to maintain social stability.
It can be said that now, from the state power departments to the common people, everyone is eagerly looking forward to the emergence of an inflection point, but most of them are Even though the public is right and the mother-in-law is right, everyone is still making wild guesses and even deliberately pursuing Ah Q-style spiritual victory. They are very happy when they see the PMI rise a little. Relatively speaking, the government is more anxious, so the task of ensuring 88% was put forward early, followed by investment plans of 4 trillion and 18 trillion, then home appliances were brought to the countryside, and now cars are brought to the countryside. There are different opinions on this series of policies, but I do not think they can achieve the expected results.
First of all, where do 4 trillion and 18 trillion come from? It is impossible for the state to print money on a large scale. Money can only come from the private sector through tax expenditures, issuance of national bonds and loans, and then concentrated on investment in steel, chemicals, cement and other industries. This is tantamount to reallocating resources through the hands of the state. Later we will find that state-owned Enterprises are the big beneficiaries because state-owned enterprises dominate these industries. So, where do small and medium-sized enterprises, which provide nearly 90% of jobs, go? I don’t see a valid answer.
Secondly, will the delivery of home appliances and cars to the countryside transfer rural wealth on a large scale? When the national economy is in crisis, everyone turns their attention to the countryside, hoping that the countryside can assume the historical mission of the “third pole” of economic development. However, the long-term serious lack of investment in rural areas has determined that this can only be a pipe dream. It is extremely ironic that while the government is shouting about increasing farmers’ income, it is actively transferring rural wealth to cities. The results are very disappointing. Take home appliances going to the countryside as an example. The final sales of the pilot project were far from expectations. After a few months, they only recorded more than 4 billion, while the target was 10 billion. What does this mean? This shows that it is not that farmers do not want to spend money, but that their spending power is too low and they have no money to spend.
In order to get the economy out of the unfavorable situation quickly, the authorities have tried their best to get out of the bad situation. The arguments were hastily introduced, and the result could only worsen the already worsening economy. So, what needs to be focused on right now?
It is a small and medium-sized enterprise. The financing problems of small and medium-sized enterprises are far from being solved. Although various policies have been introduced, including lowering bank reserves and lowering loan interest rates, banks still hold on to their money bags and have many concerns about small and medium-sized enterprises. On the contrary, the loan balance of ICBC in January surged by 200 billion in a few years. Who was the money lent to? The answer is large investment projects.
The second is rural stability. We should immediately stop all kinds of activities going to the countryside, increase support for rural farmers, and increase loans to farmers. At present, there is a severe drought in the north, the severity of which is rare in recent years. The food problem of farmers will soon become prominent. At the same time, the number of migrant workers returning to their hometowns will continue to increase in the short term. These people are likely to have to rely on rural industries to make a living. If farmers are allowed to have poor or no harvests at this time, it will be difficult to maintain the stability of rural society. Don’t forget that China The agricultural population accounts for nearly 80% of the total population, and the problems of this group of people cannot be ignored.
Looking at the international situation, there is a danger that trade wars between countries will break out, which will lead to the continued deterioration of the external demand situation, so one thing should be clear at the moment , that is, focusing on domestic demand, supplemented by external demand, and vigorously tapping domestic consumption potential. To achieve this, we must first abandon the practice of blindly pursuing economic turning points and pursuing GDP, and start by improving residents’ income. This is the fundamental solution, otherwise even if Even if you survive the current crisis, you will never escape the next crisis.
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