As an industry that is highly affected by seasonality, the off-peak and peak seasons of textiles are closely related to time. September and October have always been the time for intensive shipments of autumn and winter fabrics, and there are also large-scale promotional activities such as “Double Eleven” and “Christmas Season”, so September has always been known as the “Golden Nine”.
However, the international economic situation has deteriorated sharply this year. The COVID-19 epidemic, which has lasted into its third year, has brought the economies of many countries to the brink of collapse. The Federal Reserve has aggressively raised interest rates due to inflation, and the RMB exchange rate is close to “breaking 7.” Under this situation, September can still Can you get “gold”?
Order quantity growth
Many textile people have reported that the current order situation has indeed improved compared to August.
Mr. Yuan, the person in charge of a company that produces high-elastic fabrics, said: “The current order situation is okay. It has increased compared with August. The increase is autumn and winter fabrics, including elastic fabrics, four-way stretch, T400, T800, and high-elastic pongee. All.”
This increase in orders is directly reflected in the inventory of gray cloth. It can be clearly seen that after August, the inventory of gray cloth shows a downward trend.
But judging from other data, things don’t seem to be that simple.
According to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, the operating rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 57.8%. Although it has increased by 4.5% from 53.3% last week, the data is still not high. lower than the same period in previous years.
Manager Zhang from the marketing department of a home textile company said: “The operating rate of the dyeing factory was very low before. Now, although the activity has increased, it is difficult to fully meet the production capacity of the dyeing factory, so it is difficult to queue up and the goods can be obtained within a week. .”
However, some textile company owners have different opinions. Mr. Yuan, the person in charge of the high-elastic fabric company, said: “Recently, the number of gray fabrics coming into the dyeing factory has increased. It is estimated that the dyeing factory will be fully operational soon, and the delivery time will be longer. .”
The operating rate of looms is also in a similar situation. Although it has increased, it has not reached the level of the same period in previous years.
Manager Zhang from a home textile company said: “The order situation is a little better now than in August. The operating rate of the 100 looms in our factory is 100%. However, due to the reduction in the overall order quantity, some factories that we usually cooperate with are unable to place orders. They have, and some of their looms really don’t run much.”
Judging from the operating rate, a large number of textile companies have increased their operating rates, but some textile companies still maintain low operating rates because they cannot receive orders. The situation of two-level differentiation has become increasingly serious.
There is profit, but not much
But in any case, if the number of orders is large, how will the profits perform?
The recent continued depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is indeed beneficial to textile companies that can directly connect with foreign trade customers.
Mr. Li, the head of a textile company that produces functional fabrics, said: “We have a lot of export orders to Belarus, and we have made a little more money than before, but the basic changes are not big.”
However, more textile companies are actually connected with downstream garment factories or intermediate traders. Under the current situation of increasingly serious involution in the textile market, it is difficult for gray fabric prices to rise.
Not to mention the exchange rate, polyester prices have generally risen this week, and the cost of raw materials has increased, but it is still difficult for cloth prices to rise. In the words of Mr. Tang, a fabric merchant: “It’s good if the trading company doesn’t lower the price. You don’t even have to think about raising the price. If you want to raise the price, the order will be given to someone else immediately.”
Relatively speaking, weaving companies are still in a weak position in the industrial chain, and this status may be difficult to change in a short time.
Textile companies are cautiously optimistic
It can be seen that although the number of orders in the market has increased, the situation of too much food and too much food has not changed. Therefore, most textile companies have shown a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the next market situation.
Mr. Yuan, a manufacturer of high-elastic fabrics, said: “We already have orders for the Golden Nine and Silver Ten products, which are much better than before. The market in the second half of the year may be better than the first half.”
Manager Zhang of home textile fabrics said: “Although the order situation has improved now, it is still very poor compared to before the epidemic.The profit is relatively low. It is predicted that this situation will continue for at least two or three years. Therefore, the focus of enterprises in the next few years will be to optimize production and management and strive to survive. ”
Due to seasonal factors, the recent order situation has indeed improved. However, due to the weak environment, the current order volume cannot satisfy all textile companies. This has also caused the profits of gray fabrics and fabrics to be eroded by traders, Apparel companies suppressed. Regarding the market situation in the second half of the year, textile companies can still maintain an optimistic attitude. But after extending the time, textile companies feel a little pessimistic about the long-term market situation.
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