Chinatex Roundtable Forum: Domestic demand market will become the Optimus Prime of industry development
“In 2009, insufficient external demand under the international financial crisis will put greater pressure on the exports of the textile industry, but there are still favorable conditions for stabilizing foreign trade exports. Domestic policies tend to be looser, the domestic demand market tends to be stable, and domestic demand will gradually become the guarantee industry The main support for development.” On January 10, Wang Tiankai, vice president of the China Textile Industry Association, analyzed and judged the growth trends and countermeasures of China’s textile economy in 2009 at the 2009 annual meeting of the China Textile Roundtable Forum. Relevant leaders and experts from the National Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as well as representatives from the China Textile Industry Association and textile and textile machinery manufacturing enterprises, discussed the country’s financial support for stimulating domestic demand, macro-financial and monetary policies, and corporate financing. In-depth analysis and heated discussions were conducted on countermeasures, national industrial operation trends in 2009, the international environment for textile exports, and the difficulties and countermeasures faced by enterprises.
In 2008, affected by the economic situation at home and abroad, the operating situation of the textile economy was very severe. The specific manifestations are: the pace of production slowed down significantly, investment fell sharply, exports overall shrank, industry profits decreased, and losses continued to expand. New statistics show that the total profit of textile enterprises above designated size was 104.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -1.77%. The number of loss-making enterprises expanded from 7,292 in the previous year to 9,654, and the industry’s loss ratio expanded from 16.97% to 20.44%. From January to November 2008, the number of employees in textile enterprises above designated size experienced negative growth for the first time, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.24%. Based on this difficult situation, the textile industry is paying close attention to the economic situation and industry development in 2009. This forum annual meeting attracted more than 300 industry professionals.
Wang Tiankai pointed out that to analyze and judge the trend of the textile industry in 2009, we must focus on the external economic environment in both international and domestic aspects. Internationally, the financial crisis will continue to shrink international market demand, and my country’s textile exports may further decline in 2009. At the same time, it will also face the interference of trade protectionism. However, judging from market fundamentals and competitive landscape, the textile industry still has certain room for development in the international market. On the domestic front, overall, the domestic economic environment faced by the textile industry in 2009, especially the policy environment, will be better than that in 2008. First, my country’s macroeconomic policy has changed from “one guarantee and one control” in early 2008 to “maintaining growth, expanding domestic demand, and adjusting structure”, and has introduced a series of timely and flexible response decisions. In addition to the “10+6” measures introduced by the State Council in the fourth quarter of last year to stimulate domestic demand and promote the healthy development of the textile industry, the State Council will soon release a three-year revitalization plan for the textile industry to create favorable conditions for ensuring the development of the textile industry and promoting industrial upgrading. . Secondly, China’s economic fundamentals remained healthy in 2008, and a good situation of social stability and unity was achieved, which played a positive role in restoring confidence in the development of the textile industry in 2009.
Wang Tiankai said that the domestic demand market has great potential and will provide a large market space for the textile industry. On the one hand, domestic end-use consumer demand, including clothing and home textiles, continues to grow. With the implementation of national policies to increase the income and consumption power of rural residents, rural consumption, which is currently at a low level, will grow at a faster rate; the income of urban residents The level will also steadily improve, and it is expected that the growth rate of total retail sales of goods in 2009 will remain at around 20%. On the other hand, as the country increases investment in infrastructure construction and medical and health services, it will drive demand for industrial textiles such as geosynthetics and medical and health textiles, and drive improvements in industrial R&D and application capabilities.
Xu Weimin, chairman of Jiangsu Dongdu Textile Group, is deeply touched by the difficulties in exporting. He said that due to the decline in external demand and the shift of orders, the export situation this year is not optimistic. The experience of enterprises is: there are fewer and fewer orders, the time is getting shorter and shorter, the prices are getting lower and lower, and the risks are getting bigger and bigger.
Yao Jingyuan, a famous economist and chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out in his keynote speech that the financial crisis not only affected my country’s exports, but also further affected my country’s industrial growth, causing the growth of industries above designated size to hit a record low in November 2008. However, industrialization, urbanization and marketization, as important stage characteristics of economic development, are still strong in providing basic forces for China’s economic growth. Therefore, the financial crisis will not change the basic trend of China’s economic growth. It is worth noting that in 2009, among the troika of investment, consumption, and exports that drive economic growth, the situation for exports will be very severe.
Zhu Hongren, director of the Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, believes that from the perspective of industrial development, the first half of this year, especially the first quarter, will be a difficult period. He pointed out that various measures taken by the central government to stimulate economic growth have worked in some aspects. Although the national industrial operation data for December 2008 has not yet been released, judging from some industrial indicators, there are already signs of recovery. For example, in the first, middle and second half of December 2008, industrial electricity consumption indicators showed a gradual upward trend, steel product prices also began to rebound slightly from lows, and some important raw materials have experienced slight increases in recent times. This situation is a trend that deserves everyone’s attention and attention.
Participants agreed that export difficulties will further increase in 2009. As a result, the domestic demand market will become the basis for ensuring that the textile industryimportant support for stable development. AAEGRTHRTH
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