Foreign trade data for December last year were released today, and the decline in exports is a foregone conclusion
An analysis report released by the General Administration of Customs on the 4th predicts that in 2008, my country’s total import and export value will reach 2.55 trillion US dollars, an increase of about 18%, and the annual surplus will be about 290 billion US dollars.
Foreign trade data for December last year will be released today
The “report card” of various foreign trade indicators for December 2008 will be announced today. Previously, the market generally believed that foreign trade data in December would continue the downward trend in November and show negative growth. It is understood that China’s total import and export value in November last year experienced negative growth for the first time in seven years. As a result, the foreign trade “report card” in the last month of 2008 has attracted much attention.
Dow Jones Newswires revealed on the 12th that it learned from sources that exports in December fell by 2.8% from the same period last year to US$111.16 billion; imports that month fell by 21.3% from the same period last year to US$72.18 billion. China’s exports for 2008 increased by 17.2% over the previous year to US$1.43 trillion, and imports increased by 18.5% to US$1.13 trillion. Last year, the trade surplus was US$295.46 billion, higher than the US$262.2 billion in 2007.
Imports may continue to decline sharply
Data from the General Administration of Customs show that in November last year, my country’s total import and export volume was 189.89 billion U.S. dollars, with the growth rate reversing from a growth of 17.5% last month to a decrease of 9%; of which exports were 114.99 billion US dollars. US dollar, the growth rate reversed from an increase of 19.1% last month to a decrease of 2.2%; imports were US$74.9 billion, a growth rate reversed from an increase of 15.5% last month to a decrease of 17.9%. The trade surplus that month exceeded the US$40 billion mark for the first time, reaching US$40.09 billion, a sharp increase of 52.2% over the same period last year, a net increase of US$13.67 billion.
Some experts in the industry believe that at present, the domestic and foreign economic environment has not changed much, and this situation will continue in December.
Dong Xian’an, senior macro analyst at Southwest Securities, believes that from the perspective of my country’s import and export structure, since export companies are mainly in the processing industry and process imported raw materials into products for export, the export slump will in turn affect the demand for imported raw materials. In addition, due to the slowdown in my country’s economic growth, the demand for foreign products has also decreased, and the import price of international raw materials has continued to decrease. “The shrinking volume and price of imported goods is the inducement for the deep decline in imports.”
A customs source revealed, Preliminary statistics for December 2008 show that the import volume of some major gateways in Guangdong Province still showed a double-digit decline in December, and the export volume also dropped by close to a double-digit rate. The situation has not improved significantly compared with November.
However, some organizations are optimistic about the import data. Moody’s economist Chen Yingjia said that the 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan will help stimulate domestic demand, and the inventory situation of manufacturing companies has improved, indicating that domestic demand has stopped declining.
“Reducing surplus” turns to “stabilizing exports”
In fact, the above news is almost the same as the prediction made in the new analysis report released by the General Administration of Customs on January 4. The General Administration of Customs stated that the downward trend in import and export will continue for some time. It is estimated that my country’s total import and export value in 2008 will reach 2.55 trillion US dollars, an increase of about 18%, and the annual trade surplus will be around 290 billion US dollars.
Since my country’s foreign trade surplus was US$255.95 billion in the first 11 months of last year, the trade surplus in December will be approximately US$34 billion. Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the decrease in trade surplus growth is mainly due to the slowdown in my country’s export growth, coupled with the decrease in imported raw materials and semi-finished products, the decline in international commodity prices and other factors, which has caused the total value of my country’s import and export to also decrease. . As foreign trade import and export data both decline, my country’s foreign trade policy orientation of “reducing the surplus” will shift to “stabilizing exports.” According to relevant sources from the Ministry of Commerce, at the two-day national work conference at the end of December last year, the Ministry of Commerce stated that it would do everything possible to stabilize exports.
The above-mentioned industry insiders believe that this is very directly related to the poor data in November and the pessimistic expectations in December. The continued shrinking of imports reflects that exports will not be optimistic for a long time. In fact, new orders have also reflected that external demand has not yet improved. The new export orders index in the manufacturing PMI index (Purchasing Managers Index) in December was 30.7%, below 50% for six consecutive months. According to reports, usually less than 50% indicates a state of shrinkage.
Foreign trade stimulation may be driven by domestic demand
In the above-mentioned analysis report, the General Administration of Customs also predicted that the downward trend of import and export in 2009 will continue for some time. According to the current international and domestic economic environment, the annual import and export growth The rate may slow down to less than 5%.
How to use policy guidance to ensure “stable” exports? Many experts and industry insiders believe that if the export tax rebate policy is introduced multiple times like last year, the effect will be very limited. In fact, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming once said frankly that although increasing the export tax rebate rate and adjusting processing trade policies are of great significance to reducing export costs, attracting the return of orders, easing corporate operating difficulties, and enhancing confidence, the international financial crisis has not yet bottomed out, and it is of great significance to The impact on the real economy is deepening, and external demand may still shrink further.
Xue Hua, a macroeconomic analyst at China Merchants, believes that “the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy will have a certain impetus for exports, but without being able to influence the international situation, the key issue still lies in activating domestic demand. The investment of four trillion yuan will have a certain impact on domestic demand. It should have a certain pulling effect.”
Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences IndustryLi Youhuan, deputy director of the Economic Research Institute, also said that in the long run, some fields with advanced productivity and high technology should be subsidized to accelerate the international market share in this area.
It is understood that officials from the Ministry of Commerce have previously stated that in addition to tax refunds this year, government departments will also encourage the transfer of processing trade to the central and western regions and help small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises with financing. In my country’s Guangdong and Yangtze River Delta regions and Hong Kong and Macao regions, Guangxi and Yunnan Conduct a pilot program for RMB settlement in goods trade with ASEAN, and expand the import of products in demand domestically.
Expert opinion
Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo:
Against the backdrop of sharp shrinkage in external demand, it is unrealistic for China to maintain both import and export growth in a positive range. He predicts that in 2009, China’s export volume will fall by 5%, import volume will fall by 9%, total import and export volume is expected to fall by 6.8%, and the annual surplus is expected to be around 320 billion.
Political Commissar Lu, Chief Economist of Industrial Bank:
Domestic export tax rebates have been increased many times, which has had a certain effect on promoting exports. However, the export tax rebate policy was introduced in September and October 2008. The days for signing some foreign trade orders have passed, and there is a lag in the effect of the policy. In addition, export tax rebates have a limited effect on easing the export situation of enterprises. Therefore, a good measure to promote exports is to depreciate the RMB. Optimistically, exports will only pick up in the second half of this year.
Related links
Last year, it was announced four times that the export tax rebate rate would be increased.
4
Starting from January 1, 2009, the export tax rebate rate for some electromechanical products with high technical content and high added value will be increased. Among them, the export tax rebate rate for aviation inertial navigation devices, industrial robots and other products will be increased from 13% and 14% to 17%; the export tax rebate rate for motorcycles, sewing machines and other products will be increased from 11% and 13% to 14%. This adjustment A total of 553 products are involved.
3
Starting from December 1, 2008, the export tax rebate rates for 3,770 items of some labor-intensive products, mechanical and electrical products and other greatly affected products will be further increased. The tax rebate rate for some rubber products such as tires and some forest products whose main body or all are made of artificial fast-growing wood will be increased from the current 5% to 9%; the tax rebate rate for some molds and glassware such as metal extrusion molds will be increased from 5% to 11%; the tax rebate rate for some aquatic products such as frozen shrimps and crabs has been increased from 5% to 13%. The tax rebate rate for labor-intensive goods such as bags, shoes, hats, umbrellas, furniture, bedding, lamps, and clocks will be increased from 11% to 13%; tax rebates for some chemical products such as toothpaste, and non-ferrous metal processing materials such as stone and aluminum strips The rates increased from 5% and 9% to 11% and 13% respectively.
2
Starting from November 1, 2008, the export tax refund rate for some textiles, clothing, and toys will be increased to 14%; the export tax refund rate for daily necessities and art ceramics will be increased to 11%; and the export tax refund for some plastic products will be increased. Increase the export tax rebate rate to 9%; increase the export tax rebate rate for some furniture to 11% and 13% respectively; increase AIDS drugs, genetically recombinant human insulin freeze-dried powder, yellow collagen, tempered safety glass, tantalum wire for capacitors, ship anchor chains, and sewing machines , fans, CNC machine tool carbide knives and other commodities, the export tax rebate rates were increased to 9%, 11%, and 13% respectively.
1
Starting from August 1, 2008, the export tax refund rate for some textiles and clothing has been increased from 11% to 13%; the export tax refund rate for some bamboo products has been increased to 11%. Cancel export tax rebates for red pine nuts, some pesticide products, some organic arsine products, paclitaxel and its products, rosin, silver, zero-grade zinc, some coating products, some battery products, and carbon anodes.
Year-on-year growth in national trade data last year
Monthly December (estimated) November, October, September, August, July
Export growth (%) -2.8 -2.2 19.2 21.5 21.1 26.9
Import growth (%) -21.3 -17.9 15.6 23.1 23.1 33.7
Surplus (billion US dollars) 340 400.9 352.39 293.7 286.9 252.8
Monthly June, May, April, March, February, January
Export growth ( %)17.6 28.1 21.8 30.6 6.5 26.7
Import growth (%) 31.0 40.0 26.3 24.6 35.1 27.6
Surplus (billion US dollars) 202.1 166.77 134.07 85.55 194.9
(New Express)
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