Import and export data still maintain a “double decline” situation, and the worries about imports are greater than those about exports
The size of China’s surplus is still at a historically high level, but the main reason is that imports are declining faster. The magnitude of the decline in imports will be significantly higher than that of exports in the short term.
The import and export data in December 2008 still maintained a “double decline” situation, showing that China’s foreign trade environment is still deteriorating. Some analysts worry that China’s exports will continue to decline in the first quarter of this year.
Yesterday, the General Administration of Customs of China released new data. In December last year, my country’s total import and export value was US$183.33 billion, down 11.1% year-on-year (the same below); of which exports were US$111.16 billion, down 2.8%; imports were US$72.18 billion, down 21.3%. Compared with November data, export growth fell by 0.6 percentage points, and import growth fell by 3.4 percentage points.
In addition, it is worth noting that the foreign trade surplus was US$38.98 billion in December last year, lower than the record US$40.09 billion in November. The momentum of continued growth in monthly surplus has reversed. Although the size of the surplus is still at a historically high level, the reason is no longer a surge in exports, but a decrease in imports, which is a worrying aspect of the trade data.
“The above data are not unexpected. After all, the current economic environment is not good and the number of orders from Chinese export companies has not picked up.” Yesterday, an expert from the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute told reporters.
Processing trade struggles to survive
Chen Yingjia, an economist at the international rating agency Moody’s, told reporters that it is still difficult to judge where the bottom of China’s exports will fall, and the economic conditions of Europe and the United States are still in a downward trend. Chen Yingjia believes that the results of the deterioration of the international environment that began around October last year have not yet fully emerged. There is still a certain time lag between placing orders and actual exports, so China’s exports will continue to decline in the first quarter of this year.
Judging from the current situation, what is even more worrying comes from imports. Customs analysis believes that the reduction in foreign orders will affect the import demand for processing trade. Coupled with the sharp plunge in international bulk raw material prices and the decline in domestic economic growth, the decline in imports will be significantly higher than that of exports in the short term.
Sanlian Plastic Raw Materials Co., Ltd., located in Sanshui City, Guangdong, mainly exports toys to Europe and the United States through processing trade. Yesterday, Chen Guojian, general manager of the company, told reporters that processing trade is more susceptible to the impact of the international environment than general trade. In 2008, the company’s exports dropped by 30%.
Processing trade has been the main force in Guangdong’s foreign trade exports for many years, currently accounting for about 65% of Guangdong’s exports. This kind of trading method with raw materials and markets “outside” is particularly vulnerable to the economic downturn in the international market. Textile and clothing, toys, shoes, electronics and other processing trade companies generally reported a sharp decline in orders when interviewed by our reporter.
However, there are still bright spots in the data released yesterday. Affected by policies such as the increase in the export tax rebate rate, the overall export of goods involved in the policy adjustment totaled US$54.45 billion in December last year, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and its proportion in total export value increased from 45.8% in the previous 11 months to 49.0% in December. %.
In addition, with the weakening of external demand, the increase in general trade export prices has been basically stable. From June to December 2008, the year-on-year increase in my country’s general trade monthly export prices was basically stable between 16% and 19%, and it was still 16.3% in December.
The above-mentioned experts from the Ministry of Commerce believe that the stable increase in export prices is mainly due to the impact of domestic export tax rebates and other policies, which has improved the bargaining power of enterprises and expanded their profit margins.
The deterioration in export growth will not be too severe
The current double-digit decline in import growth has made the outside world worried whether this indicates that it will be difficult for exports to resume growth this year.
Chen Yingjia said that the double-digit decline in imports in the last two months of 2008 indicates that industrial production and exports will be very weak in the first few months of 2009, because China’s processing trade relies on imported raw materials and intermediate products.
Yesterday, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the trade deficit between the United States and China dropped to a five-month low, from $27.96 billion in October to $23.06 billion. China’s exports to the United States continue to decline.
Lu Ting, an economist at Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, also believes that export growth will deteriorate in the next two months, but it will not deteriorate too much because mainland China’s exports are more resilient than Taiwan or South Korea. China’s exports fluctuate relatively slightly because many of its exports are low-value-added necessities, and consumers demand such cheaper Chinese goods. Lu Ting judged that China’s export growth will not deteriorate below -10%.
Vice Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng recently wrote an article pointing out that the overall comprehensive supporting capabilities and comparative advantages of the labor force of Chinese enterprises are still relatively obvious. Although many export products are mid- to low-end products, they have rigid demand. Under the circumstances of economic downturn, high-quality and low-priced Chinese products have more competitive advantages.
However, export companies still hope to get support from the government.
The relevant person in charge of Dongguan New Silk Road Manufacturing Factory told reporters that since there is no fixed asset mortgage, it is difficult for private processing trade companies to obtain loans from banks. He hopes that relevant government departments can increase support for processing trade companies to expand emerging markets and create their own businesses. Brand and other aspects of support.
However, because the previous policy to encourage exports hasAfter many promulgations, the export tax rebate rates for many commodities have been adjusted to high levels, and the RMB exchange rate is also in a stable state, leaving little room for policy adjustments. A complete improvement in the export situation can only wait for changes in the external environment.
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