The final macroeconomic data for last year will be released soon, and industrial added value will become the highlight
The final macroeconomic data for 2008 will be released before the Spring Festival. Industry insiders said in an interview with Shanghai Securities News that the economic growth rate for the whole year of 2008 maintained a high rate of 9%. Among them, the industrial added value in December will rebound, and there are obvious signs of macroeconomic stabilization.
The full-year GDP growth rate is expected to be 9%
As usual, on January 24 of each year, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to ask the National Bureau of Statistics to introduce the economic performance of the previous year. Reporters learned from relevant channels yesterday that considering that the Spring Festival in 2009 was relatively early, this year’s press conference may also be advanced.
Calculations by industry insiders show that despite experiencing the triple test of snowstorms, earthquakes, and economic crises, the GDP growth rate in 2008 was still as high as 9%, and the macroeconomics delivered a brilliant answer.
Dong Xian’an, senior macro analyst at Southwest Securities, predicts that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year will be above 6%. Although it is lower than the 9.9% growth rate in the first three quarters, it still guarantees a full-year growth rate of 9%.
Tianxiang Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. predicts that GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was 5.7%, and that the full-year GDP growth was 8.9%-9.1%.
It is worth noting that GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was less than 7%, setting a low year-on-year growth rate in nine years. Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, believes that GDP growth may continue to fall in the 2009 quarter, and there will be a “V”-shaped reversal thereafter. Generally speaking, the macroeconomy has entered the bottom area.
Industrial added value may bottom out
Analysts predict that one of the highlights of this conference will be the industrial added value in December last year, which will be significantly higher than market expectations.
Data show that in November 2008, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 5.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate hit a new low since my country began publishing monthly data on the added value of industrial enterprises in 1994. The market once believed that the growth rate in December last year would further slow down to 4.0%.
In this regard, Li Huiyong and Dong Xianan believe that based on power generation and PMI data, the growth rate of industrial added value will bottom out and rebound to 6% in December 2008.
Data previously released by the China Electricity Council showed that the power generation of power plants above designated size fell by 7.8% year-on-year in December last year, and the decline in power generation was slightly narrower than the -9.6% in November. Judging from the relationship between power generation and industrial added value, the growth rate of industrial added value in December 2008 will also be higher than the 5.4% growth rate in November.
They believe that the bottoming out of industrial production has benefited from central investment to a certain extent. According to the National Development and Reform Commission, as of December 18 last year, all the new central investment plans of 100 billion yuan had been issued. This contributes to the formation of expectations for increased demand for industrial products in the future and helps restore confidence in industrial production.
Prices may continue to fall
Dong Xianan predicts that the CPI in December 2008 will increase by 1.2% year-on-year; the PPI will increase by approximately -1.2% year-on-year. Li Huiyong believes that these two figures are 1.5% and -0.2% respectively.
CICC Chief Economist Ha Jiming believes that although food prices experienced a seasonal rebound in December last year, the accelerated decline in non-food prices will still further reduce the CPI that month to 1.2% to 1.6%; PPI Affected by falling raw material prices and overcapacity, it continued to fall sharply to -1% to -2%.
The Research Department of Bank of Communications also believes that the CPI growth rate in December was between 1.6% and 2.0%, and the annual CPI growth rate was about 6%. The higher price base and the continued decline in non-food prices in the same period last year became the main reasons for the decline in CPI.
Industry insiders believe that domestic refined oil prices have continued to fall since December 19, 2008, which will further lower future prices. The continued decline in prices will provide room for further relaxation of domestic macroeconomic control policies, especially monetary policy. , it is expected that the central bank will further lower interest rates and statutory deposit reserve ratio next year.
AASDFWETGD
Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: Some of the texts, pictures, audios, and videos of some articles published on this site are from the Internet and do not represent the views of this site. The copyrights belong to the original authors. If you find that the information reproduced on this website infringes upon your rights, please contact us and we will change or delete it as soon as possible.
AA
