China Textile Roundtable Forum 2009 Annual Meeting: Industrial Salvation Driven by Policies
On January 10, 2009, the “China Textile Roundtable Forum 2009 Annual Meeting” was held in Beijing, sponsored by “China Textile” magazine and China Textile Economic Research Center; co-organized by Oerlikon Textile Group and Beijing Tiancai Textile and Garment Co., Ltd.
The theme of this annual meeting is “Responding to the Financial Crisis and Ensuring Industry Development”, which aims to explore the growth trends and countermeasures of China’s textile economy in 2009. Relevant leaders and experts from the National Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as well as representatives from the China Textile Industry Association and textile and textile machinery manufacturing enterprises, discussed the country’s financial support for stimulating domestic demand, macro-financial and monetary policies, and corporate financing. In-depth analysis and heated discussions were conducted on countermeasures, national industrial operation trends in 2009, the international environment for textile exports, and the difficulties and countermeasures faced by enterprises.
Prediction: What will be the macroeconomic trend in 2009?
Keywords: Stabilizing foreign trade to stimulate domestic demand
“The basic characteristics of the economic growth trend of the textile industry in 2009 are: insufficient external demand under the international financial crisis will put greater pressure on the export of the textile industry, but There are still favorable conditions for stabilizing foreign trade exports. Domestic policy areas are loose, and the domestic demand market will gradually become the main support to ensure the development of the industry while stabilizing.”
–––Wang Tiankai, Vice President of China Textile Industry Association
2009 What will be the overall trend of China’s textile and apparel industry in 2020?
At this China Textile Roundtable Annual Meeting, Wang Tiankai, Vice President of China Textile Industry Association, analyzed and judged the trend of the textile industry in 2009 from the international and domestic external economic environment.
In his opinion, due to the international factors affecting the economic performance of the industry in 2008, which will continue into 2009, especially the spread of the international financial crisis to the real economy, the textile industry will face an even more severe international economic situation in 2009. He pointed out that according to the predictions of the International Monetary Fund, the economies of developed economies such as the United States, the European Union, and Japan will show an average negative growth in 2009, and emerging market economies will also be greatly affected, with economic growth slowing down significantly.
Therefore, affected by the international economic situation, Wang Tiankai believes that the exports of the textile industry may show a further downward trend in 2009, and will also face the interference and invasion of trade protectionism. However, Wang Tiankai also expressed optimism that there are still some favorable conditions for textile exports. The national financial crisis in 2009 further triggered a shrinking of market demand, which put greater pressure on industry exports. However, from the perspective of market fundamentals and competition pattern, the textile industry is in the international market. There is still some room for development.
He then gave an argument – for example, in Russia, Latin America, Africa and other countries, the rapidly growing consumer demand of residents and the acceleration of their own textile production capacity will open up emerging markets and diversify the market for the textile industry. ation provides opportunities.
These opportunities are at the same time – on the one hand, they include the continuous growth of clothing, home textiles, and terminal consumer demand. With the implementation of the national policy to increase the income and consumption capacity of rural residents, and the gradual resolution of the rural issues, the current situation is at a relatively high level. Low-level rural consumption will grow at a faster level, and the income level of urban residents will increase steadily, in line with consumer demand for better-quality mass products. Residential consumer institutions increase the consumption of high-end products with high quality, personalization and cultural connotation. It is expected that the average annual growth rate of total retail sales of goods in 2009 will remain at around 20%.
On the other hand, as the country invests in infrastructure construction, medical care, sanitation, agriculture, transportation and other related industries, the demand for industrial textiles such as geosynthetic materials, medical and sanitary textiles will increase, and industrial R&D and application capabilities will be improved. , the textile industry is expected to reach a new level in 2009.
Similarly, in the view of Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, although the severe difficulties and challenges faced by China’s textile and apparel industry cannot be avoided. But this does not mean that the situation in China’s textile and apparel industry is bleak.
“It is very important to grasp China’s economy comprehensively, scientifically and completely.” Yao Jingyuan said, “No matter which country’s macroeconomics we look at, we must look at four major indicators, which is the economic growth rate; the second is the employment rate; the third is It is the inflation rate; the fourth is the balance of international payments.”
He said that in terms of economic growth rate, despite the impact of the financial crisis, the average growth rate from January to September 2009 was still 9.9%. The average growth rate in the 30 years from 1978 to 2008 was 9.8%. “With the sharp decline in the growth rate of European and American economies, China’s current economic growth rate is still slightly higher than the 30-year average growth rate.”
From the perspective of employment rate, according to the working-age population standards (16~65 years old) stipulated by the United Nations, statistical data in 2004 showed that the number of people in this age group in China reached 909 million. “This number is larger than that of the seven major developed countries. The total population is 300 million more. It can be seen that the employment pressure in China is huge.”
At the beginning of 2008, the national target of creating new jobs was 10 million. In the first three quarters, 9.36 million had been created, or 94% of the target. “The outlook is still optimistic.” Judging from the operation of the inflation rate (CPI), although China’s CPI reached a 10-year high in history in 2007, from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the price level…Nowadays, “market” should become a key word for enterprises to grasp their own positioning and innovate under the financial crisis.
“The market’s demand for products will change from a simple product demand in the past to a comprehensive demand for the industry chain. Therefore, ‘comprehensive solutions’ will play a very important role.” Dr. Vogelund said, “In addition, No matter what, the research and development of products such as personalized development trends, product quality, and energy saving and consumption reduction will play an increasingly important role in future competition.”
Based on this judgment, Dr. Voglund proposed to start from Accurately grasp the market at three levels to stimulate shrinking consumer demand, cater to market needs, and guide market expansion.
“, we must have sufficient grasp of market information, and we must have sufficient understanding and prediction of market development expectations and trends. Second, we must produce ‘correct’ products and ‘marketable’ products. The third is to establish our own brand,” said Dr. Foglund.
So, how can we produce “correct” and “marketable” products? Dr. Voglund also gave a real-life example of Oerlikon Textile Group’s internal product management approach. It is worth learning from the fact that Oerlikon Textile Group has very precise and thoughtful considerations in its product analysis. It will analyze the position of the product in the market, it will analyze the position of the market with good demand for the product, and it will also classify the areas where the market reaction to such products is negative. At the same time, in view of the hot and negative points in the market, we determine the direction in which further investment in research and development, material resources and manpower is needed, and abandon products that are not marketable.
“Of course, which one should we continue to develop and which one should we give up? This practical work is not very easy, especially in the face of market competition.” Dr. Voglund said.
In addition, in the entire industry chain, Dr. Voglund advocates the use of “competition” or “cooperation” to distinguish.
“Under the current circumstances, there are some areas where cooperation will achieve better results after a full analysis of competitors. Cooperation includes the current financial crisis, where it is very difficult for some small businesses to survive. You can join Participate in cooperation with some large groups. There are two methods in this field. One is to enable us to compete and consume corresponding amounts through cooperation, and the second is to better develop related enterprises through mergers and acquisitions.” Dr. Voglund said .
“China’s own resources are very abundant, the market is very huge, government policy support is very strong, and entrepreneurs have a very strong willingness to develop. China’s domestic demand market will play a very important role.” Postdoctoral fellow Voglund said, As long as they “target the market” in a targeted manner, textile and apparel companies rooted in the Chinese market can smoothly survive the crisis and win more powerful development opportunities. AASDGGERY6UFGH
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