Cotton prices in the domestic market continue to rise – Cotton Market Monthly Report for December 2008
In December, domestic new cotton picking has basically ended, and the purchase and sale of new cotton is progressing slowly. Affected by the purchase and storage policy, cotton prices in the domestic market continue to rise. The decline in New York cotton futures prices slowed down, while international spot prices rose slightly. Cotton imports decreased year-on-year, and the growth rate of textile production slowed down.
1. Cotton prices in the domestic market continue to rise
In December, domestic new cotton picking has basically ended, and the purchase and sale progress is slow. According to a survey by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of the end of December, the seed cotton sales rate of farmers was 76.5%, a decrease of 12.1 percentage points year-on-year (including 64.7% in the mainland, a decrease of 18.1 percentage points; and 92.9% in Xinjiang, an increase of 6.5 percentage points); cotton The new cotton processing rate of processing enterprises was 76.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2 percentage points; the average sales rate was 26.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.7 percentage points. As of the end of December, a total of 1.453 million tons of new cotton were purchased and stored in 2008, accounting for 53.4% of the announced purchase and storage plan (2.72 million tons). Among them, 951,000 tons of Xinjiang cotton and 502,000 tons of mainland cotton.
In December, the prices of cotton seeds and other by-products were still on a downward trend. However, driven by the purchase and storage policy, the purchase price of seed cotton was stable and trended upward that month, and the spot price of cotton continued to rise. At the end of December, the average purchase price of seed cotton in the Mainland was 2.39 yuan/catty (527 yuan/catty of lint cotton), which was the same as at the beginning of the month and about 0.2 yuan/catty higher than the low in November; the average purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang was 2.17 yuan/catty (purchased lint cotton was 527 yuan/catty). Entering the later stage, the grade is lower), up 0.01 yuan/jin from the beginning of the month; the average factory price of mainland standard grade cotton is 10,875 yuan/ton, up 181 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, an increase of 1.7%; Zhengzhou Cotton Futures and National Cotton Trading Market Electronics The settlement prices of the January contract for matching transactions were 11,590 yuan/ton and 11,356 yuan/ton respectively, up 250 yuan/ton and 404 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, an increase of 2.2% and 3.7%.
2. The decline in New York cotton futures prices slowed down, and international spot prices rose slightly
In December, affected by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar and stimulus from various countries’ bailout policies, the overall agricultural product market showed signs of recovery, and New York cotton futures prices fell. The trend slowed down and international spot prices rose slightly. In December, the average price of the New York futures March contract was 42.81 cents/pound, down 1.60 cents/pound or 3.6% from the previous month (previous month’s decrease of 15.4%). The CIF price at major Asian ports was 60.45 cents/pound, an increase of 0.58 cents/pound, or 1%, from the previous month. Calculated based on a 1% tariff, the import cost price in RMB is 10,808 yuan/ton, which is 18 yuan/ton higher than the domestic market; calculated based on the sliding tax, the import cost price in RMB is 12,590 yuan/ton, which is 1,800 yuan/ton higher than the domestic market.
3. Cotton imports decreased year-on-year, and the growth rate of textile production slowed down
According to customs statistics, in December, my country imported 168,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 154,000 tons, a decrease of 47.7%. In 2008, my country imported a total of 2.111 million tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 347,000 tons or 14.1%. As of December, my country had imported a total of 470,000 tons of cotton in the 2008 cotton year, a year-on-year decrease of 326,000 tons, or 41%.
In December, the national yarn output was 1.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and the growth rate decreased by 10.8 percentage points year-on-year. In 2008, the national yarn output totaled 21.49 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and the growth rate decreased by 6.8 percentage points. As of the end of December, my country’s total yarn output in the 2008 cotton year was 7.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and the growth rate decreased by 7.4 percentage points. According to statistics from the Customs Express, in December, my country’s textile and apparel exports were US$16.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and the growth rate increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. In 2008, my country’s textile and apparel exports totaled US$185.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, a decrease of 10.7 percentage points. As of December, the cumulative exports of cotton textiles and apparel in 2008 were US$66.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, a decrease of 11.7 percentage points.
In December, the prices of cotton yarn and polyester staple fiber continued to fall. In that month, the average monthly price of 32-count pure cotton carded yarn was 16,895 yuan/ton, a decrease of 907 yuan/ton or 5.1% from the previous month; the average monthly price of polyester staple fiber was 6,955 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton from the previous month. A decrease of 1.3%. AAVBJYTUJGHNH
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